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Final Tony Winner Predictions

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  • Benedick
    Participant
    Joined:
    Jan 8th, 2012
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    #431242

    Share your thoughts here.

    I’ll take on the Musical categories first. The NY Times Poll usually released a few days before the ceremony is typically accurate and helpful; some of my thoughts may change based on that.

    BEST MUSICAL
    ONCE
    We were braced for a showdown but it’s become the consensus best musical of the season, sweeping every major NY theater award. I can’t remember the last time that happened and the show didn’t go on to win the Tony.

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
    NEWSIES
    By default, really, and also probably its major consolation prize.

    BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
    ONCE
    There’s a chance “Newsies” take this as well (and still loses Best Musical) but “Once” is really well set-up to take the top award and that tips this in its favor.

    BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
    FOLLIES
    There has always seemed more passion for “Follies” than “P&B”, and I think that will carry it through here, but “P&B” topped it in overall nominations and got that surprise Best Direction nod. I’ll be looking for a little clarity in the Times poll on this one.

    BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
    JOHN TIFFANY, ONCE
    His contribution to the success of the show feels significant, and with the DD and the OCC to his name and his show taking every Best Musical trophy of the season, it seems unlikely he’ll lose.

    BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
    DANNY BURSTEIN, FOLLIES
    Jeremy Jordan and Steve Kazee will likely be disadvantaged by both being male ingenues up against a respected Broadway vet giving probably the best performance of his career. Having already taken the DD and OCC, it’s looking like it may finally be Burstein’s year.

    BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
    AUDRA McDONALD, PORGY AND BESS
    Still a chance Jan Maxwell can upset if voters are tired of Audra winning and Jan losing, but the marriage Audra and Bess has long been anticipated, and she didn’t disappoint. It’s also her first serious shot at a Leading Actress Tony. Feels like hers to lose.

    BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
    MICHAEL McGRATH, NICE WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT
    Michael Cerveris may be the best thing about “Evita”, but I’m not sure that’s enough to win, considering how nobody really likes the show. If he’d never won before, different story maybe, but he has, and sort of recently. Instead I feel the momentum is with McGrath, a lovable Broadway character actor, who has already nabbed the DD and OCC for this role.

    BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
    JUDY KAYE, NICE WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT
    Judy Kaye’s first and last Tony was for “Phantom of the Opera”, and the community seems ready to give her another, and for doing what she does best: stealing scenes. Also some nice symmetry that her two Tonys would be from shows whose most memorable scenes feature chandeliers.

    BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
    CHRISTOPHER GATELLI, NEWSIES
    Really one of the major reasons to see it: agile young men flipping and kicking and twirling through the air for two hours.

    BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
    MARTIN LOWE, ONCE
    Bit of a toughie. Could go hand-in-hand with score, and usually does, or there might be an upset coming from “P&B”, though I have a feeling purists may prevent that from happening. Instead I think voters will feel that the finessing of “Once’s” songs from film to stage deserves their vote.

    BEST SCENIC DESIGN: SPIDER MAN
    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: FOLLIES
    BEST LIGHTING DESIGN: GHOST
    BEST SOUND DESIGN: PORGY AND BESS (just a guess)

    Plays tomorrow.

    Reply
    dannyboy.
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    #431244

    Which day do we get the NYTimes Poll?

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    tonorlo
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    #431245


    Best Play
    Clybourne Park *
    Other Desert Cities
    Peter and the Starcatcher
    Venus in Fur


    “Clybourne Park” seems to have the most going
    for it in terms of critical and audience acceptance verging on “Yes, this is ART
    worthy of consideration” snob appeal. That having been said, there seems to be
    a very eager audience for “Peter and the Starcatcher” and the consensus that
    there is more of a good time to be had (rather than making an appeal to loftier
    heights) with “Other Desert Cities.” “Venus in Fur” falls somewhere in the
    middle of that spectrum, and doesn’t have a chance. I wouldn’t be averse to an “Other
    Desert Cities” upset, but wouldn’t it be SOMETHING if “Peter” flew off with the
    Tony?



    Best Musical
    Leap of Faith
    Newsies
    Nice Work If You Can Get It
    Once *


    By now, the burgeoning swell for “Once” is
    looking increasingly like a genuine wave. And as “Mary Poppins” taught us, the
    lack of the top trophy need not necessarily deter box office receipts (besides,
    Disney & Co. have their “Lion King” honors to keep warm with). One may give
    a respectful salute to the never-really-had-a-shot “Nice Work,” even though it
    revisits the same formula as 1992’s top winner, “Crazy for You” (the best of
    Gershwin set to an original book). Still scratching my head over the solitary
    nod for “Leap of Faith”…



    Best Revival of a Play
    Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman *
    Gore Vidal’s The Best Man
    Master Class
    Wit


    Admittedly a rather pallid lineup, though “The
    Best Man” deserved more attention than it got. “Death of a Salesman” wins
    purely by default, as an inoffensive but not especially inspired re-tooling of
    a classic.


     
    Best Revival of a Musical
    Evita
    Follies
    The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
    Jesus Christ Superstar


     


    “Evita” tried to hold its head above the mixed
    reviews, and no one was particularly dancing in the streets when “Jesus Christ”
    came to town. The two duking it out are surely the critically hosanna-ed “Follies”
    (filling the now-essential “Sondheim spot” this year) and the top-nominated
    revival “Porgy and Bess,” which received mixed reviews but stars one of
    Broadway’s most celebrated contemporary leading women. (“Porgy” also benefits
    from the fact that it is still currently playing on the boards, whereas “Follies”
    has been closed for some time.) However, given its lavish production, stirring
    performances, and still sharp-as-a-whiskey-sour book and score, “Follies”
    should take the prize easily.


     


    Best Book of a Musical
    Lysistrata Jones (Douglas Carter Beane)
    Newsies (Harvey Fierstein)
    Nice Work If You Can Get It (Joe DiPietro)
    Once (Enda Walsh) *


     


    The goofy “Lysistrata Jones” is up for what
    was its strongest asset, but it’s still a dark horse. Never count out the
    venerable four-time Tony winner Fierstein, who has as many writing trophies as
    he has acting trophies. “Nice Work” just copped a Drama Desk win (without, however,
    having to go up against either of the two Best Musical frontrunners). But “Once”
    seems like the most likely scenario for the win out of this lineup, a smooth
    adaptation from screen to stage, which, particularly this year, has been
    pointed up as a very tricky tightrope to walk.


     


    Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics)
    Written for the Theatre

    Bonnie & Clyde (Music: Frank Wildhorn, Lyrics: Don Black)


    Newsies (Music: Alan Menken, Lyrics: Jack
    Feldman) *


    One Man, Two Guvnors (Music & Lyrics:
    Grant Olding)


    Peter and the Starcatcher (Music: Wayne Barker,
    Lyrics: Rick Elice)


     


    A truly dyspeptic
    lineup (two straight plays are included; the surest sign of creative ennui in
    this category). The notoriously cursed Frank Wildhorn manages to pull out
    nominations for so-so shows, and “Bonnie & Clyde” did nothing to further
    his particular reputation. Menken has been chasing Tonys for adapting his
    celebrated Disney scores to the stage since 1994’s “Beauty and the Beast,” and
    he will finally cop the elusive honor this go-round… which he can to add to his
    mountain of Oscars for those celebrated Disney scores.


     


    Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
    in a Play


    James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors *
    Philip Seymour Hoffman, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
    James Earl Jones, Gore Vidal’s The Best Man
    Frank Langella, Man and Boy
    John Lithgow, The Columnist


     


    Our three past
    winners (Jones, Langella and Lithgow) are all sitting it out this time (like
    last year’s Brian Bedford, Jones would have had a FAR better opportunity had he
    been placed in the Featured category). The battle here is between two
    heavyweights: the unknown Corden, who highlights the year’s most celebrated
    comedy, and Hoffman, the movie star who helms one of the year’s most acclaimed
    dramas. Corden has been a favorite underdog all season long, and he has swept
    up the precursor prizes that have eluded his competitor Hoffman (whose turn got
    decidedly mixed notices, which even his high profile may be unable to
    overcome). Lately, the Tonys seem to be leaning more and more toward comedy
    turns (Julie White, Mark Rylance, of late), and if that particular trend holds
    up, Corden would benefit… deservedly so. But watch out. This will be a close
    one.


     


    Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading
    Role in a Play

    Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur
    Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow *
    Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities
    Linda Lavin, The Lyons
    Cynthia Nixon, Wit


     


    It’s a pretty decent
    lineup when Cynthia Nixon is the undisputable dark horse. There are three women
    worth keeping eyes on here. Channing and Arianda both benefit from being in
    well-received Best Play nominees. Channing is a veteran (and past Tony winner),
    and hers is a role (overbearing mom in a dysfunctial family) that the Tonys
    really gravitate toward (see recently: Deanna Dunagan of “August: Osage County”).
    Arianda has a great deal of goodwill stored up from her critical raves for “Venus,”
    as well as her nominated performance only last season in “Born Yesterday.”
    Conveniently for Bennett, however, Arianda and Channing have been ineligible
    for this year’s precursor prizes, and Bennett has snapped each one up. She
    could easily continue her streak for the biggest prize of all, in a role that
    the entertainment cognoscenti will be hard-pressed to resist: as the iconic,
    emotionally troubled singer Judy Garland, Bennett acts and sings up a storm in “End
    of the Rainbow,” and the sheer amount of work she’s putting into her
    performance each night will be difficult to floss out of the memory as voters
    are marking their ballots. Arianda could edge her out, but I’m betting on
    Bennett.


     


    Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
    in a Musical

    Danny Burstein, Follies *
    Jeremy Jordan, Newsies
    Steve Kazee, Once
    Norm Lewis, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
    Ron Raines, Follies


     


    Yeah, lousy vehicle
    or not, I was shocked that Tony darling Raul Esparza didn’t make the cut, too. After
    bombing out earlier in the year in one of the season’s biggest misfires, “Bonnie
    & Clyde,” Jordan dusted himself off and redeemed himself by starring in one
    of the season’s biggest hits. He could win in a showing of ‘cursory nod to a
    talented up-and-comer” acknowledgement (see John Lloyd Young of “Jersey Boys”),
    but so could Steve Kazee of “Once,” who I’ve felt from Day One was an
    underrated player in the game. But with the announcement of the Drama Desk
    Awards, a wild card has emerged in Burstein, who has recently found himself on
    the Tony radar in the last few years via his scene-stealing turns in “The
    Drowsy Chaperone” and “South Pacific.” He’s got as good a shot as any of these
    guys, frankly (Lewis and Raines, excellent though they are, are here only as
    choice filler). I’m leaning toward Burstein for the moment, but don’t be overly
    surprised if Jordan jetes over him in the final vote.


     


    Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading
    Role in a Musical

    Jan Maxwell, Follies
    Audra McDonald, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess *
    Cristin Milioti, Once
    Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It
    Laura Osnes, Bonnie & Clyde


     


    It’s got to be
    frustrating to be Maxwell at the Tonys. A hardworking theatre veteran, she’s
    racked up a mantelpiece of nomination certificates, and she’s never yet won.
    Praised for having given one of the finest musical performances of the season
    in “Follies,” Maxwell nevertheless seems to be having her thunder stolen from
    her by another competitor… one who, rubbing salt in an already open wound, has
    already won FOUR Tonys. Indeed, the Tonys have displayed a lavish affection for
    McDonald on par with their seeming indifference to Maxwell, and with McDonald
    having copped the OCC and Drama Desk Awards, there seems to be a pretty good
    chance that she is about to join the esteemed ranks of Julie Harris and Angela
    Lansbury as only the third woman to win five acting Tonys (incidentally, this
    would be McDonald’s first Leading Actress award, if she is in fact the victor).
    Milioti and Osnes don’t have a prayer between them, and O’Hara, who has racked
    up her own mantelpiece of nominations over the past decade, desperately needs a
    role that allows her to be more than a cute and spunky soprano-for-hire. She is
    a Tony waiting to happen, but not this year.


     


    Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured
    Role in a Play

    Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher *
    Michael Cumpsty, End of the Rainbow
    Tom Edden, One Man, Two Guvnors
    Andrew Garfield, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
    Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park


     


    All of these men
    bring excellent work to the table to be considered. However, Borle and Garfield
    are the two to bet on. Borle, a Broadway veteran and the only one to be a
    previous Tony nominee, stars in a highly versatile, scene-stealing comic turn,
    while Garfield, heretofore known for his film star status, essays the role of one
    of the American theatre’s most tortured young sons. Whether Borle’s momentum
    with the voters or whether Garfield’s starpower will win the day remains to be
    seen (remember: only two years ago, film ingénue Scarlett Johansson managed a
    Tony win over some august stage elders), but if the voting Broadway-ites decide
    to embrace one of their own, make way for Borle.


     


    Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured
    Role in a Play

    Linda Emond, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
    Spencer Kayden, Don’t Dress for Dinner
    Celia Keenan-Bolger, Peter and the Starcatcher
    Judith Light, Other Desert Cities *
    Condola Rashad, Stick Fly


     


    A very odd cache of
    nominees, though three have better-than-adequate chances. Keenan-Bolger is the
    lone female in one of the year’s most thoroughly enjoyed-across-the-boards
    productions, Emond is in a Tony-magnet role that has done the trick for one
    predecessor as Linda Loman (Elizabeth Franz), and Light is a veteran with not
    just stage but television recognition to amp up her profile (she also has
    momentum from her nomination in last season’s “Lombardi” in this same
    category). It could be Emond, but Light has the most in her favor, as she has
    the esteem of her colleagues for her years of consistent work and the fact that
    she is looking increasingly like the best (maybe only) place to throw the
    well-liked “Other Desert Cities” a bone.


     


    Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured
    Role in a Musical

    Phillip Boykin, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess *
    Michael Cerveris, Evita
    David Alan Grier, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
    Michael McGrath, Nice Work If You Can Get It
    Josh Young, Jesus Christ Superstar


     


    Probably the most
    up-in-the-air acting race of the night (and also the category where it’s
    easiest to win for being the best thing in a so-so vehicle). The ever-reliable Cerveris
    and McGrath received an expected accolade for their consistently fine work in “Evita”
    and “Nice Work” respectively, and Young received a surprise nod in “Superstar”’s
    baitiest role (though he could legitimately qualify as a lead in his vehicle).
    There are also two nominees from “Porgy” to battle each other. While Grier has
    the higher profile, Boykin got the superior reviews… Then again, Cerveris is
    nearly a decade away from his first Tony win (for “Assassins”) and some may
    feel he is due again… Then again, McGrath, fresh off a Drama Desk win, might
    usurp them all. In a no-guts-no-glory pick, I’m going to go with Boykin.


     


    Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured
    Role in a Musical

    Elizabeth A. Davis, Once
    Jayne Houdyshell, Follies
    Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It *
    Jessie Mueller, On A Clear Day You Can See Forever
    Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost the Musical


     


    Houdyshell won some
    appreciative applause (and knocked out her higher-profile co-star Elaine Paige
    in the bargain) by singing the Sondheim chestnut “Broadway Baby,” but past
    winner Kaye looks like she may be returning to the winners’ circle, having
    copped the Drama Desk Award for “Nice Work If You Can Get It.” (In a category
    with no one clear favorite, it sometimes becomes necessary to follow where the
    wind is blowing.) Randolph really ought to take this in a cakewalk, but for
    some bizarre reason, despite getting nominated in all the right places and
    walking off with some of her vehicle’s best notices, she has never really
    gained the momentum needed to translate into a win. If the Tonys throw us a
    legitimate and deserved curveball anywhere in the acting categories, it would
    be here. (Speaking of curveballs: who, I ask, WHO saw the Davis and Mueller
    nods coming?)


     


    Best Direction of a Play
    Nicholas Hytner, One Man, Two Guvnors
    Pam MacKinnon, Clybourne Park
    Mike Nichols, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman *
    Roger Rees and Alex Timbers, Peter and the Starcatcher


     


    Too bad “Other
    Desert Cities” Joe Mantello is MIA… Earlier in the season, I was predicting a
    return to glory for Hytner (who helmed the Tony-winning “Carousel” in 1994),
    but I’m starting to wonder if “Death of a Salesman” may get some excess love
    besides its much-anticipated Revival win. If that does happen, I think that
    perhaps Nichols will be the likely beneficiary. I hope I’m wrong, but… It’s
    also really a shame that Rees and Timbers have to go up against such heavy
    hitters; in most other years, their highly innovative efforts would have stood
    a much better chance.


     


    Best Direction of a Musical
    Jeff Calhoun, Newsies
    Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It
    Diane Paulus, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
    John Tiffany, Once


     


    It could be argued that he’s got the least to
    do with the least unwieldy production of these four, but Tiffany takes a small
    jewel in “Once” and polishes it up to a shining pearl. In most other years, it
    probably could have gone to Calhoun easily.


     


    Best Choreography
    Rob Ashford, Evita
    Christopher Gattelli, Newsies *
    Steven Hoggett, Once
    Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It


     


    The one slam-dunk for “Newsies” of the night.
    Marshall has already been (recently) honored, so no one will feel too badly
    asking her to sit out this time; both she and Ashford will surely be back again,
    and soon.


     


    Best Scenic Design of a Play
    John Lee Beatty, Other Desert Cities
    Daniel Ostling, Clybourne Park
    Mark Thompson, One Man, Two Guvnors
    Donyale Werle, Peter and the Starcatcher *


     


    Actually, any of these could win, but “Peter”
    is bound to sweep up a few tech wins.


     


    Best Scenic Design of a Musical
    Bob Crowley, Once
    Rob Howell and Jon Driscoll, Ghost the Musical
    Tobin Ost and Sven Ortel, Newsies
    George Tsypin, Spider-Man Turn Off The Dark *


     


    Yeah, the show is a
    train wreck, but the innovative sets of “Spider-Man” were nominated for a
    reason. Runner-up: “Ghost.”


     


    Best Costume Design of a Play
    William Ivey Long, Don’t Dress for Dinner *
    Paul Tazewell, A Streetcar Named Desire
    Mark Thompson, One Man, Two Guvnors
    Paloma Young, Peter and the Starcatcher


     


    At first glance,
    this may seem like another easy tech nod for “Peter” to sweep up, but the Tonys
    are unusually fond of Long, and he doesn’t always win for having  the most elaborate costumes (remember his “Grey
    Gardens” victory over “Mary Poppins” from only several years ago?). Also: how
    long has it been since Catherine Zuber wasn’t up for ANYTHING?


     


    Best Costume Design of a Musical
    Gregg Barnes, Follies *
    ESosa, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
    Eiko Ishioka, Spider-Man Turn Off The Dark
    Martin Pakledinaz, Nice Work If You Can Get It


     


    The  bouquets of color, swaths of furs and
    overpowering Ziegfeld-esque regalia will allow Barnes to win easily. Ishioka
    and Pakledinaz, thanks for playing.


     


    Best Lighting Design of a Play
    Jeff Croiter, Peter and the Starcatcher *
    Peter Kaczorowski, The Road to Mecca
    Brian MacDevitt, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
    Kenneth Posner, Other Desert Cities


     


    The much-nominated veteran MacDevitt could
    certainly pull it off for “Salesman,” but I’m checking this off as another “Peter”
    victory.


     


    Best Lighting Design of a Musical
    Christopher Akerlind, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
    Natasha Katz, Follies
    Natasha Katz, Once
    Hugh Vanstone, Ghost the Musical *


     


    Probably “Ghost”’s best shot at a win, and it
    is certainly a worthy competitor. Akerlind and Katz will definitely be back
    before long.


     


    Best Sound Design of a Play
    Paul Arditti, One Man, Two Guvnors
    Scott Lehrer, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
    Gareth Owen, End of the Rainbow
    Darron L. West, Peter and the Starcatcher *


     


    This also has a decent
    shot at going to Owen, who juggles dramatic book scenes with impromptu concert
    numbers in “Rainbow,” but I’ll say West, who I predict will cap off the trail
    of tech wins for “Peter.”


     


    Best Sound Design of a Musical
    Acme Sound Partners, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess *
    Clive Goodwin, Once
    Kai Harada, Follies
    Brian Ronan, Nice Work If You Can Get It


     


    Always an iffy proposition to predict, but
    three wins for all of “Porgy”‘s nominations sounds like a fairly legitimate ratio to me.


     


    Best Orchestrations
    William David Brohn and Christopher Jahnke, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
    Bill Elliott, Nice Work If You Can Get It
    Martin Lowe, Once *
    Danny Troob, Newsies


     


    Brohn/Jahnke and Troob aren’t
    out-of-this-world impossibilities, but Lowe stands a decent shot at benefiting
    from his vehicle’s frontrunner status. Why not?


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    dannyboy.
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    #431246

    I just made Peter and the Starcatcher my pick for Best Play. Other Desert Cities and Clybourne Park have had very little buzz, unlike One Man, Two Guvners, End of the Rainbow and Peter and the Starcatcher. The only one of those three nominated? Peter and the Starcatcher. I’d personally be fine with either Other Desert Cities or Peter and the Starcatcher winning..

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    Benedick
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    #431247

    BEST PLAY
    CLYBOURNE PARK
    All of these plays premiered off-Broadway either last season or the season before that, which makes it difficult to weigh their odds against one another. “Peter” has the biggest nominations haul of the bunch and could benefit from being an alternative for voters who can’t decide between “Other Desert Cities” and “Clybourne Park”. But will voters let this go to an adaptation of a children’s book for the second consecutive year, when they have two big new plays by noteworthy American playwrights? I don’t think they will. “ODC” is more traditional Broadway comfort food — it’s a Hellman-esque play with secrets some slightly forced reversals  — whereas “Clybourne” is an ensemble piece with an innovative structure that centers around a theme rather than a single character’s arc. “Clybourne” brought a lot of thoughtful observation to the subject of race, which will haunt us forever, and its connection to “Raisin in the Sun” certainly can do nothing but help it. I say it edges out the others but expect this to be close.

    BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
    DEATH OF A SALESMAN
    There is really no other competition, and that’s mostly why it will win. People forget that the production, while a big financial hit because of PSH and Spiderman, got mostly mixed reviews; from the way journalists and media pundits talk about the show, you’d think the production was some sort of masterpiece. It really makes me wonder if some of these people haven’t either read or seen “Death of a Salesman” since high school.

    BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
    MIKE NICHOLS, DEATH OF A SALESMAN
    I really hope voters, before marking their ballots, stop to consider if this “Salesman” (which uses the original sets and music) was enough of a directorial accomplishment to hand Mike Nichols his NINTH Tony Award — especially since there are some pretty terrific achievements to choose from here. Farce is deadly without a good director nimbly pulling the strings, and that’s just what Nick Hytner did; Pam MacKinnon smoothly handled a play where the entire cast is onstage together pretty much the entire show; and perhaps nowhere is the contribution of the director more obvious than in the imaginative “Peter and the Starcatcher”. It should go to one of them, but I can’t decide which is most likely. And they love Mike Nichols.

    BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY
    JAMES CORDEN, ONE MAN, TWO GUVNORS
    One has to wonder why journalists and self-styled “experts” continue to claim that PSH will win this in his sleep, considering James Corden has ritualistically beaten him in their pre-cursor match-ups, and Hoffman lost the Drama League performance of the year award to Audra McDonald. It could just as easily go to Hoffman, but Corden is the one people seem to be talking about; it’s a star-making performance and the guy is hugely charismatic. Also probably the best shot his play has at a win, and I think the show is too well-liked to go home empty-handed. Salesman is virtually guaranteed other prizes.

    BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY
    TRACIE BENNETT, END OF THE RAINBOW
    Lavin once again demonstrates how giftedly naturalistic a comic actress she is and Channing does some sharp but beautifully restrained work in her play. Either could have won in another year, but against this roster both feel a little too low-key to win. I would give it without reservations to the brilliant Nina Arianda–it helps that her play was nominated as well, and that she’s a major new home-grown talent–but the emotional turmoil of Judy Garland is reliable awards bait, and Tracie Bennett throws herself into it with manic abandon. Plus, she sings. A lot.  

    BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
    ANDREW GARFIELD, DEATH OF A SALESMAN
    Tom Edden is the category’s requisite scene-stealer (never count them out) and Jeremy Shamos, being the only member of his cast nominated, could benefit from a desire to honor the acting in his play. But the frontrunners seem to be Christian Borle and Andrew Garfield, in extremely different types of performances, so different it almost feels bizarre to compare them. Garfield’s the real deal as an actor, even if he was slightly miscast in the role, and I think the gravitas of what he gets to play edges out Borle’s charmingly sly turn.   

    BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
    JUDITH LIGHT, OTHER DESERT CITIES
    Spencer Kayden is the category’s requisite scene-stealer (never count them out) but Judith Light seems to have the most going for her; she was nominated in this category last year for a well-recieved performance, and it’s the most logical place for “ODC” to pick up a win. Linda Emond, by virtue of the role she’s playing, could have a chance as well, but seems to have no buzz.

    BEST SCENIC DESIGN: PETER AND THE STARCATCHER
    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: PETER AND THE STARCATCHER
    BEST LIGHTING DESIGN: PETER AND THE STARCATCHER
    BEST SOUND DESIGN: PETER AND THE STARCATCHER 

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    Benedick
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    #431248


    Best Play
    Clybourne Park *
    Other Desert Cities
    Peter and the Starcatcher
    Venus in Fur


    “Clybourne Park” seems to have the most going
    for it in terms of critical and audience acceptance verging on “Yes, this is ART
    worthy of consideration” snob appeal. That having been said, there seems to be
    a very eager audience for “Peter and the Starcatcher” and the consensus that
    there is more of a good time to be had (rather than making an appeal to loftier
    heights) with “Other Desert Cities.” 


    I find it interesting that you say there’s a consensus that there’s more of a good time to be had at “ODC” than “Clybourne Park”. I feel exactly the opposite. The audience response to “Clybourne” was by far the more enthusiastic of the two at the performances I attended; no question it’s the funnier and livelier of the two.

    Furthermore, I have to say I completely disagree that “Clybourne” relies more on snob appeal than “ODC”, which for all its virtues (and they are many) is essentially a play about an upper middle-class family throwing back highballs and sparing over politics. It’s a bread and butter play for Lincoln Center Theater’s subscription base, an elderly well-to-do crowd, and seems to be appealing to the same sort of audience on Broadway.   

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    BrandoObsession
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    #431249

    I would freak the heck out, in a good way, if ‘Peter and the Starcatcher’ nads the top prize. 

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    dannyboy.
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    Oct 11th, 2010
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    #431250

    I would freak the heck out, in a good way, if ‘Peter and the Starcatcher’ nads the top prize. 

    I am hearing SO MUCH about Peter and the Starcatcher that it is tough for me to ignore.. I hear next to nothing about Clybourne Park or Other Desert Cities which makes me think that Peter is peaking at exactly the right time. If its a choice between CP and ODC, I would quite easily vote for Other Desert Cities. Peter and the Starcatcher is still my choice for the win.

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    BrandoObsession
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    #431251

    [quote=”BrandoObsession”]I would freak the heck out, in a good way, if ‘Peter and the Starcatcher’ nads the top prize. 

    I am hearing SO MUCH about Peter and the Starcatcher that it is tough for me to ignore.. I hear next to nothing about Clybourne Park or Other Desert Cities which makes me think that Peter is peaking at exactly the right time. If its a choice between CP and ODC, I would quite easily vote for Other Desert Cities. Peter and the Starcatcher is still my choice for the win.[/quote]

    The buzz for ‘Clybourne Park’ is certainly there. Afterall, anything that wins a Pulitzer can’t be ignored. ‘Other Desert Cities’ on the other hand, I rolled my eyes during the entire 2nd act. Overacting (most subtle being the frontrunner Light), overdramatic, all melodrama (oh, that “twist”).

    But you’re right. It seems ‘Peter and the Starcatcher’ is peaking at the right time.  

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    Spenser Davis
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    #431252

    My final predictions:

     

    BEST PLAY

    “CLYBOURNE PARK”

    This
    Pulitzer Prize winner seems to be the near-perfect storm of critical
    acclaim, snob appeal, and crowd-pleasing comedy that can win over
    voters. However, while many believe that “Other Desert Cities” is the
    play to offer the biggest upset, I think that “Peter and the
    Starcatcher” is the audience favorite that could take the top prize. The
    enthusiasm for the show is incredible, and it might add up to a
    surprise win here.

     

    BEST MUSICAL

    “ONCE”

    As
    far as I’m concerned, “Leap of Faith” and “Nice Work If You Can Get It”
    are non-factors here, leaving the race between “Once” (the critics
    darling with a heart of gold) and “Newsies,” the big-budget Disney
    adaptation with a heck of a production value and a much larger scale. In
    other years, I would side with the latter, because the Tony is often
    won by the show that would do better on tour. But with the well-timed
    announcement that “Once” will also be going on tour next year, I think that factor is neutralized, leaving voters to follow their hearts and choose “Once.”

     

    BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

    “DEATH OF A SALESMAN”

     

    Despite
    its mixed reviews, I think that “Salesman” gets this award. “The Best
    Man” could’ve done it at one point, but the showing hasn’t been as good
    as it could’ve been.
     
     

     

    BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

    “FOLLIES”

    Earlier this year, I thought that “Porgy and Bess” might’ve won this
    race. But the buzz for “Follies” continues to hum across the Interwebs,
    making me think that it’ll win this award. And from what I hear, it is
    much deserved.
     

     

    BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL

    ENDA WALSH, “ONCE”

    “Nice Work If You Can Get It” won the Drama Desk, sure. But I don’t
    see “Nice Work” winning any of the top awards, and especially not while
    it is against the two Best Musical frontrunners here. “Lysistrata Jones”
    will be the “Xanadu” of the year, nominated for a quirky, enjoyable
    book that could make for a fun win but really doesn’t have a chance (the
    fact that Beane wrote both books should not seem like a coincidence).
    Fierstein has a long history of winning Tonys for his writing. But even
    so, and even if “Newsies” ends up with the Best Musical award, I still
    think that voters will look at this category as a way to acknowledge
    “Once,” which is understandably not present in the Best Score category.
      

     
     

    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

    “NEWSIES”

    Part
    of me dislikes the idea of even predicting “Newsies” for the win here,
    as many Disney films adapted for Broadway feel as though they had lyrics
    changed and extra songs tacked on if only to qualify for this award.
    Many lyric changes made to this score make little sense to me, and yet I
    can’t picture a scenario where “Newsies” loses. “Bonnie & Clyde,”
    which does feature the destined-to-be-sung-at-auditions “Dyin’ Ain’t So
    Bad,” won’t beat it. And the other two nominees are plays. In fact, the
    only way that “Newsies” can lose here (which is won’t) is if the “Peter
    and the Starcatcher” love is so huge that voters check it off the ballot
    here too. Menken does have a bit of a curse in this category after all,
    doesn’t he?



     BEST ACTOR, PLAY

    JAMES CORDEN, “ONE MAN, TWO GUVNORS”

    I
    will freely admit to know very, very little about Corden, or about the
    play that he is in. But what I do know is his track record with awards
    this year, where he has been snabbing prize after prize. If I had
    anything to compare this to, it would be Rylance’s first win for “Boeing
    Boeing,” for which he won the Tony despite being pitted against some
    really heavyweight dramatic actors. I say Corden takes this one.

     

    BEST ACTRESS, PLAY

    TRACIE BENNETT, “END OF THE RAINBOW”

    I
    thought this was going to be Nina Arianda’s year. After missing out a
    few years back, Arianda reviving her much-acclaimed role in “Venus in
    Fur” felt like the envelope was practically sealed. But then Bennett hit
    the stage.
    Linda
    who? Stockard who? I’m told that Bennett’s performance commands your
    attention from start to finish, and that the sheer energy she exudes
    night after night is exhausting to even watch. That’s the kind of
    powerhouse performance that voters have trouble ignoring. If Nina loses,
    it will be to Ms. Bennett.

     

    BEST ACTOR, MUSICAL

    DANNY BURSTEIN, “FOLLIES”

    This
    was looking like Jeremy Jordan’s year, as the young guy who demands you
    pay attention through his work. But Burstein’s the vet, and he is in
    what I have down as the best revival of the season. He takes it.

     

    BEST ACTRESS, MUSICAL

    AUDRA MACDONALD, “PORGY AND BESS”

    Audra
    has won before. Jan Maxwell hasn’t. Remember that year when she was
    nominated in both featured and lead categories, and lost both? I do. And
    I’m sure some voters do too. If this becomes a case of spreading the
    wealth, Jan’s got this, both for her great work and because she’s due.
    But Audra MacDonald keeps winning for a reason: she’s fantastic! I’m
    sticking with her for now, but in solidarity for giving credit where
    credit is (over)due, I’m rooting for Jan Maxwell.

     

    The rest are predictions without explanations, which I might come back in and write up later.

    BEST FEATURED ACTOR, PLAY: Christian Borle, “Peter and the Starcatcher”

    BEST FEATURED ACTRESS, PLAY: Judith Light, “Other Desert Cities”

    BEST FEATURED ACTOR, MUSICAL: Michael McGrath, “Nice Work If You Can Get It”

    BEST FEATURED ACTRESS, MUSICAL: Judy Kaye, “Nice Work If You Can Get It”

    BEST DIRECTION, PLAY: Mike Nichols, “Death of a Salesman”

    BEST DIRECTION, MUSICAL: John Tiffany, “Once”

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    Karl William
    Participant
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    #431253

    I’m keeping my predictions so I just copied and pasted them.

    Best Musical: Once
    Momentum seems to be shifting that way. In addition to the nimber of nominations, other awards wins and the fact that they’re touring leads me to believe they have the edge… and they are the best musical of the year. Overall, support for the show has recently experienced a huge upswell, I am pretty confident that they will take this one.

    Best Revival: Follies
    It’s going to be close, but I think Follies will just pull off the win over Porgy and Bess. The was the controversey of taking out 2.5 hours out of a classic so that could prevent Porgy from getting the top prize.

    Director: John Tiffany, Once
    Just has to. His direction was beautiful and I think the show as whole had a great unity and smartness to it.

    Best Score: Newsies
    There just isn’t any competition and it would be a way to recognize Newsies

    Best Book: Once
    For me it’s just the strongest in the category and is another major award for Once

    Lead Actor: Danny Burstein, Follies
    This is a really hard category. Literally any one of them could win. But I think that his performance can’t be forgotten, it was incredible. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised or dissapointed if Steve Kazee would make the walk to the podium. 

    Lead Actress: Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess
    It would be a way to honor Porgy and Bess and I think she gave a fantastic performance either way. Although Maxwell did give the performance of her career and Milloti was just wonderful (and i would rather have one of the two win), McDonald has the edge.

    Feat. Actor: Michael Cerveris, Evita
    Feat. Actress: Judy Kaye, Nice Work if you Can Get it
    Choreography: Newsies

    Orchestrations: Once
    For me this is one of their most deserved awards.

    Scenic Design: Spiderman
    Costumes: Follies
    Lighting Design: Ghost
    Sound Design: Once 

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    Balthazar
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    #431254

    Coming from Lexington, Kentucky, I’d like to note that Steve Kazee has received quite a bit of press here.  Today’s newspaper lists Jeremy Jordan & Norm Lewis as his prime competition (Danny Burstein & Ron Raines are noted only parenthetically as modest contenders). 

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    Atypical
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    #431255

    FINAL PREDICTIONS

    Best Play: “Clybourne Park”

    Best Revival of a Play: “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

    Best Direction of a Play: Mike Nichols, “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play: Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play: Tracie Bennett, “End of the Rainbow”

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play: Christian Borle, “Peter & the Starcatcher”

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play: Judith Light, “Other Desert Cities”

    Best Musical: “Once”

    Best Revival of a Musical: “Follies”

    Best Direction of a Musical: John Tiffany, “Once”

    Best Book of a Musical: Enda Walsh, “Once”

    Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre: Alan Menken, Jack Feldman, “Newsies”

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical: Danny Burstein, “Follies”

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical: Audra McDonald, “The Gershwins’ Porgy & Bess

    Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical: Michael McGrath, “Nice Work If You Can Get It”

    Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical: Judy Kaye, “Nice Work If You Can Get It”

    Best Choreography: Christopher Gattelli, “Newsies”

    Best Costume Design of a Play: Paloma Young, “Peter & the Starcatcher”

    Best Costume Design of a Musical: Gregg Barnes, “Follies”

    Best Lighting Design of a Play: Brian MacDevitt, “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

    Best Lighting Design of a Musical: Hugh Vanstone, “Ghost the Musical”

    Best Orchestrations: Danny Troob, “Newsies”

    Best Scenic Design of a Play: Daniel Ostling, “Clybourne Park”

    Best Scenic Design of a Musical: George Tsypin, “Spider-Man Turn Off the Dark”

    Best Sound Design of a Play: Darron L. West, “Peter & the Starcatcher”

    Best Sound Design of a Musical: Clive Goodwin, “Once”

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    Benedick
    Participant
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    #431256

    I picked Burstein for the win but put him and Kazee even in terms of odds to win; Jordan slightly behind, Lewis slightly behind him. All of them are possible.

    The only revision I think I am going to make to my predictions will be switching to Nina Arianda. 

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    Trent
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    #431257

    I 100% think that there could be a tie in Best Actor in a Musical. I could see any combination of Burstein, Jordan or Kazee tying for the win.

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