April 30, 2014 at 11:36 am #432982
Can we safely assume either NPH or Jefferson Mays will win in this category? I get that the nominators love both shows, and that it will be really close (as much of a coin toss as Jones vs. McDonald), but I think Mays will win due to the age of the voters factor. (Perhaps it’s just that I hope so – I also have seen Mays’ performance and have not seen Harris’). I like Neil Patrick Harris, always have – always will – but I hate his particular “musical” with a passion (I dislike what the musical says, it’s a p.o.v. I have come to reject as I’ve gotten older; the music gave me a splitting headache (watching the movie), and it just isn’t my kind of show) – with that out of the way, I think NPH has the momentum but the voters often reward performers who have worked their butts off the whole entire season. Perhaps this will be a tie???
My guess is that you guys will all pick NPH, so I will be the contrarion! (:April 30, 2014 at 12:36 pm #432984
I don’t particularly like certain musicals, but that never gets in the way of me judging who will win. I actually adore Hedwig and the Angry Inch, but if the performance is bad, the performance is bad. But Neil Patrick Harris has been getting stellar reviews, and I think he will end up winning.April 30, 2014 at 12:40 pm #432985
Having seen both, I think Harris has this one. To be completely honest, while Mays and Pinkham are both superb in their show, if I had to choose between them I preferred Pinkham. His timing is impeccable and he really anchors the show. But Mays’ 8 character gimmick is also endlessly entertaining. Could this cause a slight vote split? Possibly. But in terms of working one’s butt off, no one is doing that more than NPH right now. Its the most energetic performance currently on Broadway. I dont see the age argument coming into play. Hedwig is the most nominated revival and second most nominated show overall, and there are older members on the nominating committee.
Im sure Ramin Karimloo with his almost cult following and love letters from most every reviewer will snag some votes. And Andy Karl has a lot of good will. But Harris carries his entire show, with no understudy, sounds great on the songs, showcases impressive comedic and improvisational chops, and essentially never stops bounding around the stage, not to mention the physical transformation. Its a part that Tonys were built for, and he’s killing it.April 30, 2014 at 12:41 pm #432986
I think it’s incredibly close. NPH would be the “popular” choice, and the voters may want to award him after years of stellar hosting. I would personally vote for Mays, as is his performance is a true tour de force, and much harder to pull off (sorry, but I can’t see NPH playing 8 distinct, wildly different characters). To me, without any outside factors (although of course there are), it comes down to if they prefer singing (Harris) or acting (Mays). Judging from last year though (Porter over Carvel definitely has some parallels to this year’s race), I think they’ll plumb for Harris.
PS: The predictions’ center finally has some categories up, although they’re only for the same four production categories as before. Hopefully they’ll add more ASAP.April 30, 2014 at 12:49 pm #432987
If Harris had only gotten mediocre reviews, then there would be a much stronger race. But with the reviews that he is getting, he is a slam dunk. His popularity alone made him a contender, but giving a great performance AND being well-liked is a perfect combination for a win.April 30, 2014 at 12:49 pm #432988
Voting for Porter was voting for the hometown boy. He had been working his ass off for years, everyone in NYC knew him, but he had yet to find something that really fit him and was unable for so long to bring his career to the next level. People were basically just waiting for the time when they could reward him. NPH while not always a prescence in NYC has done a tremendous amount to elevate the visibility of the Tonys and get more butts in seats on Broadway. So in the same vein, Harris has also become a beloved figure and now they have the chance to reward him.April 30, 2014 at 12:57 pm #432989
I can’t speak too fairly since I haven’t seen NPH live but I still sense that he is wrong for the role and in pictures he doesn’t seem right either….but with the reviews, what do I know then?
I frankly think it should go to Mays or Pinkham and would be extremely happy with either one….and I am still royally pissed that they snubbed Steven Pasquale!!April 30, 2014 at 1:16 pm #432990
Harris had this locked up when the casting was announced even if some people were no feeling it at first and then the images and reviews came and it become unbeatable. Mays has his tony and while his show is strong Hedwig equally is strong where Gentleman got one extra actor, book and score. Harris has this sown up and will probably win every award he can win.April 30, 2014 at 5:39 pm #432991
Harris all the way. the show itself was really beloved and it will probably win the revival category.April 30, 2014 at 10:08 pm #432992
Harris!April 30, 2014 at 10:14 pm #432993
My personal preference is Jefferson Mays. I thought it was one of the best performances I had ever seen. Having said that, Harris was great too (not as great as Mays), but he has all the buzz going for him right now. I’m really hoping the Tony voters go with Mays, but I’m thinking it will be Harris in the end.May 1, 2014 at 5:03 am #432994
Harris all the way. the show itself was really beloved and it will probably win the revival category.
But by that logic, it could also be Mays. The show itself was really beloved (the most nominations) and it will probably win Best Musical.May 1, 2014 at 5:11 am #432995
It would be really great if there were ties this year in several categories!!!
I am wondering aloud: is there an age divide? I’m in my 40’s and I find my theatre friends, who are all my age, regardless of whether they are gay or straight, are all favoring Mays over Harris. (Maybe it’s just my group of friends, LOL!)
It hadn’t occured to me that the brilliant Bryce Pinkham might siphon some votes from Mays and clear a path for Harris. Who the other nominees are definitely impacts outcomes in close races. (Wish they would tell us afterwards what the percentages are!) (;May 1, 2014 at 6:30 am #432996
I really don’t believe in the concept of vote-splitting by nominees from the same show. Could Pinkham siphon votes from Mays? Yes, but so will Karl, Karimloo and for that matter, Harris. And the same is true for every other nominee–the four remaining will siphon votes. The history of the Tonys is littered with winners who had competitors from their own shows in their category. In just the past ten years, the following people have won Tonys when competing against someone from their own show:
Norbert Leo Butz
Marcia Gay Harden
Jim NortonMay 1, 2014 at 10:17 am #432997
[quote=”MadsonMelo”]Harris all the way. the show itself was really beloved and it will probably win the revival category.
But by that logic, it could also be Mays. The show itself was really beloved (the most nominations) and it will probably win Best Musical.
But I’m saying this as an add to the previous reasons that people already said about Harris/Hedwig. Gentleman’s nominations were all predictable, and I think Hedwig overperformed in nominations.