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NY Times Annual Tony Voters Poll

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  • Benedick
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    #431918

    It’s up:

    http://theater.nytimes.com/2013/06/07/theater/theaterspecial/predictions-from-tony-award-voters.html?adxnnl=1&hpw=&adxnnlx=1370554234-WrIinKUf6YuAygXS7As7gA

    The skinny –
     
    Musical categories: 
    Kinky Boots edges Matilda for Best Musical
    Matilda for Best Book
    Kinky Boots a shoo-in for Best Score
    Pippin for Best Revival
    Diane Paulus for Best Director
    Jerry Mitchell over Chet Walker for Best Choreography
    Laura Osnes over Patina Miller for Actress
    Billy Porter and Bertie Carvel locked in a dead heat, they give the edge to Porter for Actor
    Andrea Martin for Featured Actress

    Play Categories:   
    Vanya and Sonia for Best Play
    Virginia Woolf over Trip to Bountiful for Best Revival
    Tom Hanks for Best Actor
    Cicely Tyson for Best Actress
    Judith Light for Featured Actress

    Nothing on the Featured Actor categories and the Directing-Play category, which are the ones most of us need help with.                      
              

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    Madson Melo
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    Jul 25th, 2011
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    #431920

    So, Cyndi Lauper is only gonna miss an Oscar lol

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    Anthony
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    #431921

    I just have to say that this sudden surge for Laura Osnes really angers me. It isn’t that I hate her, because I don’t at all. Osnes is a lovely performer and has one of the best voices on Broadway currently, but Cinderella isn’t exactly a role that wows people (well, at least not me). Is she good in the role? Yes, but I wasn’t overly impressed by her.

    Patina Miller, on the other hand, is KILLING this role. Her work in this is nothing short of classic….I’d even go as far to say among my favorite female performances of recent years.

    It is a matter of opinion so I can’t say they are all wrong, but it seemed like everyone was on board with Ms. Miller and now suddenly Osnes has surged forward. I feel like the Broadway community is DYING to reward her but I am sure a much better role would come along.

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    Beau S.
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    #431922

    Having seen both shows, you have to know that this version of Cinderella is nothing like the fairy tale from your childhood. The storyline is twisted and turned by Douglas Carter Beane, there’s a plethora of subplots and new jokes that you would never expect the story of Cinderella to have.

    That being said, I’m with you on Patina Miller. I was floored by everything in Pippin and if I were the sole decider of the awards, it would win everything. Many people claim Miller does little actual acting, but then you hit that big finale and you watch her really play the character.

    I’m not on yet on the Osnes train, Miller’s performance was to me so obviously better than Osnes’ (not trying to take away from her – she was great too) that I have trouble thinking a majority of other voters are putting Osnes as their choice. Miller should have won for Sister Act imo so if she is passed over for this as well, I will be very disappointed.

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    Djoko
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    #431923

    You Have To Remember THis IS Only 35 Voters. Probably The Same As EnterAinment weekly doing thEir Five Oscar Voter PoLl. I just can’t believe some of the winners they are predicting Especially Patina Miller Losing. I Just Don’t See ThaT Or Matilda Not Winning Best Musical.

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    Anthony
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    #431924

    While I LOVED Sutton Foster in Anything Goes and she has my personal vote, I can’t deny that Miller was a dynamo as Delores.

    I would go as far to say that if she loses for Pippin, it would be one of the worst snubs in the history of the category.

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    adamunc
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    #431925

    This poll, even though it’s only a small sample, has a remarkable history for accuracy. I’m really hoping for Patina Miller to pull out the win as well, though. I like Osnes too, but if she wins a Tony before Kelli O’Hara, it will be a travesty.

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    Atypical
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    #431926

    The explanation for “Kinky Boots” edging out “Matilda” for Best Musical is interesting. I thought all of the critical pedigree and Oliviers would sail it to victory, but maybe the homegrown property (based off of an import) wins out with heart instead. I think this was what I needed to change my prediction for the big prize.

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    SamEckmann
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    #431927

    While this version of Cinderella is obviously retooled and has a little more meat in terms of story, and I think Osnes is a terrific actress and singer, I agree that this should be Miller’s year.  

    Im still debating whether or not to change my prediction for musical over to Kinky Boots but it makes sense why it could surpass Matilda. Voters vote where they have a stake in things. Kinky Boots could arguably do better on tour (much more flashy/showy, big numbers, cyndi laupers draw), and more broadway folks are likely to be tied to the team.  Voters are usually apt to vote for friends and those they want to work with over someone they dont know well. Kinky Boots certainly isnt regarded as “deep” but its certainly feel-good and happy, which is what most leave the theatre feeling.

    also, Ive talked about this too many times on these boards, but Im still frustrated over any insight into featured actor in a play lol. Why didnt the times poll for that category! ugh.  

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    adamunc
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    #431928

    I would think Matilda would have the support of the tour promoters since it’s extremely family-friendly and anything with “kinky” in the title might be a tougher sell in the heartland. But it’s so tough to make a prediction, because Matilda just doesn’t seem to inspire the kind of passion among supporters that Kinky Boots does. It’s going to be thisclose, but I’m going to stick with Matilda because those tour votes really count and there were some pretty widespread rumblings about the patness of KB’s book. Voters may feel that giving Lauper the Tony is enough.

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    Djoko
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    #431929

    The NY Post Which Also TalKs To Members Is Also Predicting Laura Osnes Which Would Be A Travesty Except TheY Say Matilda For Best Musical And Best Actor.

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    Beau S.
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    #431930

    Every year the voter poll is fairly accurate, though there are usually one or two categories that don’t line up. In 2010, the poll indicated that Montego Glover would win for Memphis with the edge in Best Musical given to Fela, in 2011 they suggested Laura Benanti was one of the safer bets of the night, and in 2012 that Follies would win for revival and Hoffman for play actor. I recall also in 2008, they said that Passing Strange would win for Best Musical (with which I wholeheartedly agree it should have) and gave the edge to The Homecoming for Play Revival. 

    So while this poll is often more successful than it is not, it (obviously) doesn’t perfectly predict every category. This gives me faith that Miller’s superior performance will win out. In a year with a higher than usual number of close races, this poll may not be as accurate as usual.

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