March 25, 2015 at 1:27 pm #434565
More and more experts are plping in every day!
http://www.goldderby.com/odds/experts/217/March 25, 2015 at 2:53 pm #434567
Ridiculous how few are predicting Hand to God for Best Play. I saw a preview the other day and I already bought a ticket to return after it opens. It’s absolutely brilliant, and has the benefit of being an American original. Boyer could win Play Actor.March 25, 2015 at 3:09 pm #434568
I think its just because many of the Experts likely haven’t seen Hand to God yet, and its categorized as a play that’s “out there”. Press week is fast approaching, and many may change their tune. …Or they wont and we will score more points than them 😉
Overall I feel people might have too much confidence in The Audience. Obviously Helen Mirren is in, and Judith Ivey too. And it will likely snag a costume design nomination. But there are so many other unique offerings vying for (likely) four spots, I dont think that top award is a slam dunk. The play as a whole hasnt been unanimously embraced.
Locks: Curious Incident, Wolf Hall Then…Bloodbath: Hand to God, Airline Highway, Constellations, Disgraced, The Audience, Fish in the Dark.
At least we have strong offering for new plays this year.March 25, 2015 at 5:22 pm #434569
^That’s my guess too.
I would consider Constellations a lock considering the reviews, its fantastic performance financially and the clout of stars in it who gave remarkable performances in addition to being big names (Gyllenhaal is my current 2nd place finisher behind Boyer and Wilson is my current winner…I haven’t seen Mirren yet). Many reviews of The Audience pointed out that it’s a strong vehicle for Mirren but a weak play overall, I think it may be vulnerable. I’m going to try to get a rush ticket this week, I’ll make a decision when I see it.
I’m also a bit surprised by the confidence many of them have in An American in Paris and lack of confidence in The Visit. I saw a preview of AAIP (will return after opening night) and I found that the story was incredibly sloppy and the show is held together by its wonderful dancing (which will probably win the choreography award). Meanwhile, The Visit is the final show to come from a legendary composing team that has been gestating and (hopefully) improving for over a decade now and is finally playing Broadway with a legend headlining it and a strong director at the reins. I will try to see it next week and report back, but I have a lot of confidence in this show and I’m surprised that it’s not considered a stronger contender.March 26, 2015 at 4:38 am #434570
Take these “experts” with a grain of salt. We know a lot more on these boards than they do. If you remember last year they were predicting Bullets Over Broadway even though I had been trumpeting for months that A Gentleman’s Guide would win. I actually saw Bullets and knew it wouldn’t even be nominated. They make predictions without having seen many of the shows.March 26, 2015 at 10:51 am #434571
Take these “experts” with a grain of salt. We know a lot more on these boards than they do… They make predictions without having seen many of the shows.
Unfortunately, I have to agree with Djoko that the experts don’t usually get it right until much later in the Tony Awards season, when the contenders are narrowed down to official nominees and a general consensus emerges.
Tom, would you be open to / interested in having some of the Tony forum posters do a slugfest before the official nominations? I think this small but very vocal group of contributers here have a tremendous finger on the theatre pulse, and I know a lot of us have seen a lot of the plays in contention this year!
Formerly known in the forums as PianoMann.March 26, 2015 at 11:06 am #434572
Agreed. I would bet that over 75% of the eventual Tony nominations will go to shows that haven’t opened yet. Between April 15 and April 23 alone, we will see the openings of Finding Neverland, The King and I, Fun Home, Living on Love, Doctor Zhivago, Something Rotten!, Airline Highway and The Visit. Right there you’re likely looking at all of the Best Musical nominees within that 9-day period. So any speculation at this point is underinformed at best, even though we all like to engage in it. This isn’t like the Oscars, where many contenders have been seen in their finished forms at festivals early enough to merit speculations. Yes, many of these productions have played out-of-town tryouts or been developing in various productions for a while. But we don’t have a finished product until that opening night.