This is usually the most accurate of the Tony predictions, when the NY Times interviews Tony voters for their votes. This year they interviewed 40 out of 800:
My cheat sheet lol. I remeber a few years back basically copying/pasting these polling picks and doing really well. But since I am a little bit more educated on all things “The Great White Way” most of these picks line up with my initial predictions. What is interesting is that Mrs. Samuel L. Jackson could be the upset pick in her category.
I’m most surprised about Jackson (thought this was primarily a Audra/Cherry battle to the finish), Emond (didn’t think “Cabaret” was all that well received with Williams’s snub), and Mays (the rumblings seemed to be that Mays had a nice pocket of support along with “Gentleman’s” as a whole and might upset, but now it seems like NPH is as locked in as Hugh Jackman was for “TBFO”). Nice to see some contested races at this late stage and potential for spreading the wealth this year.
Is it just me or do I have a feeling Audra’s going to not win on Sunday? I love her, but I don’t think winning 6 tonys is good for her career and I hope she will win her 6th in the future. Jackson may pull it off, but A Raisin In The Sun doesn’t have a lot of momentum it seems.
Surprised Idina Menzel is doing better then Sutton Foster right now given If Then’s bad reception. I thought Sutton was more powerful on Broadway then that, but I do think Violet has peaked way too late to get any awards. Jesse Muiler is my prediction, but I’m really pulling for Kelli. Probably not gonna happen though. Sigh.
I wish they could have talked more about the featured races, because it looks like theres more dark horses there then in the ones they covered. Mare Winningham is a strong dark horse and Mark Rylance doesn’t seem like a sure thing.
Wow, if Jackson pulls off the win in the Lead Actress Play category, that will be the surprise of this century so far. The article’s finding still don’t give us a clear front-runner for Musical between GG and Beautiful, but I’m kind of glad. That one I think we won’t have any clear pointers until they open the envelope, which is exciting. If GG somehow manages to take Score and/or Directing, then that will probably point to a win for it, but I’m not expecting that to happen. Otherwise, there are no indicator awards earlier in the evening.