Drama Series: Breaking Bad, perhaps only until Mad Men airs, is the clear frontrunner; every episode was at the very least solid. Only a truly horrific season would keep Mad Men out, but that would involve the mistakes of the fourth season coupled with the uneven tone of the first; impossible. As for The Good Wife, despite some contempt from this site, it is still an acting and casting dynamo with proficient editing, direction, and writing. Though its quality can vary somewhat alarmingly episode-by-episode, the good thing about having 23 episodes is that they will definitely have submissions enough to guarantee nomination. Homeland is fantastic, and a very likely nomination regardless of the Globe win, despite its relative youth; meanwhile, Boardwalk Empire managed to claw its way back into the hearts of most critics, though its SAG wins probably mean little as Emmy did not seem to appreciate its acting last year, especially when compared to The Good Wife, or Mad Men, or even Justified. Game of Thrones is probably assured a nomination based on the content of the second book; but despite all its nominations last year, we must wait to see how the content will be treated.
3.The Good Wife
6.Game of Thrones
Drama Actor: In short, Bryan Cranston faces real competition--though probably not from Jon Hamm--but he will probably win anyway. If nominated, Damian Lewis might beat him.
Drama Actress: In recent years, a very weak category, but if Emmy nominates well, there could be legitimate suspense here. Presently, its very much Margulies vs. Danes on even footing. Danes has at least three excellent submissions already with Carrie; and after some time being Alicia-lite, The Good Wife is gaining in quality and buzz by placing events around Alicia once more. However, Margulies' best submission is in an uneven episode, but she always gets her best work around the twentieth episode, some way off. Elisabeth Moss probably won't get another 'The Suitcase', but if she does, and Weiner keeps modest, she may be a spoiler. Kyra Sedgwick always submits extremely well, and if she is even nominated, could also win, however unlikely that is. Glenn Close and Mireille Enos would probably only be filler-nominess--but of a much higher quality than the usual.
3.Elisabeth Moss (or January Jones, but unlikely)
Drama Supporting Actress: Christina Hendricks hovers on the periphery, but if she gets another episode around the quality of 'Guy Walks into an Advertising Agency', she could shoot straight to the top. This entire category is precarious, as the bottom four could simply fall away. Lange is a lock and the deserved favourite by a long way, and Christine Baranski has had a very good season--there seems to be this idea that Charles and Baranski might not be nominated in favour of their buzzier co-stars, but I disagree; they have received far better dramatic material this season so far; though that may change with Panjabi's upcoming storylines and Cumming's further integration into the main plots. Baranski already has several possible submissions. Rose Byrne has had a very good season, in my opinion; her best since the first season (...you know, the one for which she wasn't nominated.) Anna Gunn has also performed well, and could ride the collective buzz of Breaking Bad to nomination here, or in the less-competitive actress category. Morena Baccarin is very deserving. Archie Panjabi simply doesn't have the material so far; the Bitcoin episode was not a good use of her.
Drama Supporting Actor: Excellent category as many have said, with many others waiting to sneak in. Anybody could win; though I'd like to see Goggins on the podium based on his work so far this season. However it's a race between Dinklage and Paul, even if the latter doesn't ahve the clearest-cut choice for submission. Josh Charles and Mandy Patinkin have a very good chance also; and Damages men have always done well here; based on what we know, DirecTV was good at garnering nominations for Friday Night Lights, even if that was a markedly better show.
I'm new here and would appreciate anybody telling me if any one of my points is ridiculous, or I've done something wrong, or overlooked something.
The Good Wife gaining buzz statement feels baseless and a bit homer-ish. I can't speak for the show's quality as I refuse to watch it but everyone around here seems to believe the quality in this season as dropped and that Claire Danes is the clear frontrunner. Also, I'd say placing Gunn in supporting actress above Christina Hendricks seems ridiculous for a few reasons... Anna Gunn might submit lead again because she's dumb. She's never been nominated for either category. And Hendricks has been nominated a few times now in a category that had it not been for Margo Martindale poutting on the performance of a life time a lot of people believed she could win. Other than that, I'd say you're pretty spot on and welcome to our dysfunctional little world!
The ratings drop for Smash is not that bad and, let's be honest, the show has only been on for two episodes. No, the performances have not been anything to write home about and no, the direction of the pilot was not among the best I've seen this year, but don't count the series out just yet. I think that Megan Hilty, for starters, is putting in some good work - considering where the story is headed, her best material might be yet to come. And Debra Messing will rise to the occasion once the writing allows her too, mark my words.
I thought for a while there that it might sneak into Drama Series as a left-field darkhorse, and though that is no longer likely, let's not get too critical two weeks in.
First of all The Good Wife bashing is applicable to some aspects of season 3 for sure - but other parts have been suprisingly excellent, so I believe it's on par with Season 2 - and that still faired 9 nominations with a win - expect a similar story for season 3. Other shows which will probably remain similar in nomination numbers are Broadwalk Empire & Breaking Bad. Mad Man will still stay strong but I really can't see it winning a 5th consecutive emmy however good it is - but I do believe there may be some love for the show elsewhere.
Down to my predictions: This is a tough one, I'm writing each category in order of greatest certainty. Numbers indicate chance of nomination & win
DRAMA SERIES 1. Breaking Bad 2. Broadwalk Empire & Homeland 4. Mad Men 5. The Good Wife 6. Game Of Thrones ------------------------------------------------ 7. Justified 8. American Horror Story Other contenders: Luck, The Killing, Smash, Boss, Dexter, House
---- OUTCOME: Breaking Bad has all the factors for this - this could be their sole win - opening up Drama Actor
DRAMA ACTRESS 1. Julianna Marguilies 2. Elisabeth Moss 3. Claire Danes & Connie Britton 5. Mirielle Enos 6. Glenn Close ------------------------------------------------ 7. Mariska Hargitay Other contenders: Kyra Sedwick, Kathy Bates, Debra Messing
----OUTCOME: Emmy voters don't always follow the trend. I think ( and this may sound mad) they will actually go for a single win for AHS via Connie Britton, it's 2 birds one stone, i.e. Overdue emmy for Connie Briton, one for AHS, one for team Ryan Murphy. Otherwise I think Elisabeth Moss has a strong case. Danes is too obvious and Homeland has a lot to brag - so they'll be rewarded elsewhere as opposed a previous emmy winner
SUPPORTING ACTRESS 1. Christine Baranski & Jessica Lange 3. Margo Martindale 4. Archie Panjabi 5. Kelly MacDonald ------------------------------------------------- 6. Michelle Forbes OR Anjelica Huston 7. Christina Hendricks 8. Rose Byrne
---- OUTCOME: I know Lange is the obvious way to go, she won some of the most competitive categories at Globes at SAG, but emmy's aren't SAG or Globes. I think they'll go for Baranski as the sole TGW win, she has such a strong suit of episodes and could have even more support with a guest nomination for the Big Bang Theory. Marguilies won't repeat unless stronger episodes evolve, same for Panjabi.
SUPPORTING ACTOR 1. Peter Dinklage 2. Aaron Paul 3. Josh Charles 4. John Slattery 5. Mandy Patinkin 6. Nick Nolte --------------------------------------- 7. Giancarlo Espisoto 8. Alan Cumming 9. Walton Goggins
------OUTCOME: As I stated above the uncertainty increases going down. I'm not sure about who could win here but those nominees are a slice out of each show and so I feel confident about those. I could be underestimating Goggins. I think this could be a repeat for Dinklage - but he could of course run for lead, or possibly Mandy Patinkin
DRAMA ACTOR 1. Steve Buscemi & Bryan Cranston 3. Damien Lewis 4. Kelsey Grammar 5. Jon Hamm 6. Hugh Laurie ----------------------------------------- Other contenders: Timothy Olyphant, Michael C. Hall, Dustin Hoffman, Patrick J. Adams
-----OUTCOME: Difficult! A 4th win Cranston - although amazing seems less likely. I think Broadwalk Empire could take it's big prize here but why not Laurie in his last season??? Again I think this is tricky- we could see shock nominations for Patrick J. Adams - he did get through to ultra competitive SAG, and we know the emmys can be surprise central - Melissa McCarthy.
DIRECTING 1. Homeland - Pilot 2. The Killing - TBA 3. Breaking Bad - Face Off 4. Broadwalk Empire - TBA ---------------------------------------- 5. Luck - Pilot or Boss - Pilot
-----OUTCOME: A pilot episode most likely, I'd say Homeland. Maybe the Killng though as they did win DGA
WRITING 1. Broadwalk Empire 2. Breaking Bad 3. Mad Men 4. Homeland 5. Game of Thrones
-----OUTCOME: Mad Men could contend here in lieu of Drama Series
I will comment more as months go on. My knowledge is limited on Directing and Writing so please let me know if they're terribly flawed.
^Much of your reasoning is way off base. I don't understand why some do these long lists with long-winded commentary if they don't know what the hell they're talking about. (Now that was as asshole comment)
Despite its credentials I don't see SMASH! getting a series nod. It's too purposely corny and lite weight to be taken seriously by voters. I thought the series might make some pop culture impact, but despite the NBC's unyielding pimping the show is just doing okay, and the response from the public has been only fair. To get the last spot it'd have to eek out The Good Wife, Justified, Luck and Dexter. Don't see it doing that. Plus, if NBC's other midseason drama Awake ends up being a critical hit with okay ratings that could overshadown Smash's push.
The problem the Good Wife's guest stars have is that they are generally used with restraint and don't dominate episodes, which is something I like that the show does, but it hurts their chances at getting Emmy love even if they are big names.
Briliance Immorbid correct you are. But I'm muddled in though over predictions as the emmy's are less predictable than other awards like the Oscars - you'd think the continuity of nominees helps but alas no.