This year's Musical race is an interesting one. I thought from the beginning that the show that will tour better ("Newsies") would win the top prize. But then "Once" got the most nominations out of any show this season, which I was not expecting. Perhaps this amount of love translates into a B.M. win. I'm sticking with "Newsies," which will also be winning Best Score - slightly controversial, if you ask me, considering how many people dislike the way that Menken's team changed some of the beloved lyrics of the film. I hope that "Once" can pull a win in Book, if only to give it some of the bigger awards.
Once just did something very smart. They just announced a national tour that will launch in 2013. I think this will take the tourablity factor out of the voting process and I now give Once the edge. Even though yes it doesn't mean it will do well, but if it wins Best Musical road houses will know that it would be more marketable then.
Before the nominations I would've said "Newsies" had it in the bag, but because "Once" did so well I'm thinking it may be the frontrunner now. I'm going to go with the Tony voters poll the NY Times and NY Post release the weekend of the Tonys. Their predictions are almost always spot on.
The dark horse, if you ask me, is Jeremy Shamos. His, I'm told, is the performance to watch in "Clybourne Park."
I am very glad someone from this excellent ensemble got nominated, and Shamos is particularly notable for the way his characters in the first and second act seem so completely different (everyone plays two roles).
But the real thing to watch in the show is how beautifully this cast works together. They are all onstage together for almost the entire play, which is rare and a real thing of beauty to watch as they spar and react to each other.
The category is so open I could see him winning, especially since he's the only one nominated - a way to acknowledge the acting in the production.
Once just did something very smart.
They just announced a national tour that will launch in 2013. I think
this will take the tourablity factor out of the voting process and I now
give Once the edge.
I saw an article announcing that, and I thought it was pretty brilliant. Everyone and their mother knows that the "tourability factor," as you call it, plays into the decision of who to vote for in Best Musical. Surely the producers knew they had to do something to counteract that, and this is the best way to go about that, if you ask me. This, mixed with the overall nomination count, could have just won the Tony for "Once."
@Benedick - I think you might be right. Jeremy Shamos might get the Tony as an acknowledgement to the cast, since this organization does not have an Ensemble award. Right now, I'm still betting on Christian Borle. It seems like the show's best chance at a non-tech win, and he's a past nominee who is considered a big draw for the show.
Right now, this is how I see the top musical awards.
BEST MUSICAL - "Once" BEST DIRECTOR, MUSICAL - "Newsies" BEST BOOK, MUSICAL - "Once" BEST SCORE, MUSICAL - "Newsies"
Newsies winning Score is practically a slamdunk in my book, and it feels like the safest bet of the night. In addition, the size and scope of the show will make its direction seem that much more impressive. However, Once will win something, and Book seems to be a good place to acknowledge it. I'll stick with Once for Musical as well, now that the tour factor might be out. That, of course, is tentative.
Newsies for sure is winning Score, almost by default really, which seems a little unfair. Is it the best score of the bunch? Yes, but it's mostly music from the film, which was written back in the early 90s, and that's not really what the award is about. Not since The Who's Tommy tied Kiss of the Spider Woman for best score back in 93 (I think) has score based so heavily on a film won.
Once will, I think, win Best Book, especially if it's going to win Best Musical. Very slim chance it manages to win the top prize without either one of those.
The three most likely scenarios at this point seem to be 1. Once for Best Musical and Book, Newsies for Best Score 2. Newsies for Best Musical and Score, Once for Best Book 3. Newsies takes all 3 (pretty unlikely, I think)
Directing almost always goes to the winner of Best Musical or Best Revival of a Musical, though there have been exceptions, though I'm not sure this year will be one.
Finally, I wonder what sort of threat Nice Work If You Can Get It might pose in this race. It seems somewhat more likely to be one of those shows which racks up lots of nominations but converts few, if any, into actual wins. I haven't seen it yet, but if it appeals to an older, more traditional voting block, that might end up hurting Newsies more than Once.
I can't imagine Nice Work selling as many tickets around the country (though I read the tour is planned) as Newsies. The passion for it just isn't there. I honestly have no idea how Once will tour, though it would certainly get my vote if I were eligible.
That was an unusual year. Urinetown managed to win Book, Score, and Directing, and then lost Best Musical, which is pretty rare. I don't usually believe Best Musical is won or lost exclusively by the road vote, but I think it may have been the tipping point that year. Ironically, Urinetown wound up having a longer run on Broadway than Millie.
Just to get this thread jumping again. I think that Once is now the one to beat. Although I did have it winning before, I feel as if there is a little more support coming now from the other awards, although those usually don't mean anything. It seems like there is just more suppot in general, although if they win it would be by the skin of their teeth.
Yeah. At first, I was predicting a split between Best Musical and Director, but now I'm leaning towards both going to 'Once' with Jeremy Jordan (still) holding onto Best Actor. Who knows, the Tonys has a funny way of working where unlike the other EGOT awards, box office/ratings seems to matter amongst the nominees... or at least it seems like it to me.