I think Hoffman will win Actor followed by Whitaker then Penn. Brody benefited from having a bunch of co-nomineees that were all Oscar winenrs already, Foxx benefited from the one two-punch of Ray and Collateral that year.
Mirren vs. Theron for Actress with Mirren winning though I can see Cjarlize still pulling it off also. Kidman is in third with Reese as a filler nominee togethwr with Swank (the already won an Oscar will work against her with this bunch of nominees).
Freeman vs. Cooper I guess. Cooper is the character actor in a showy role while Freeman is overdue already for the Academy. Barely giving the edge to Morgan as his film is nominated and won BP. Clooney and Arkin are filler noms, and Robbins at the middle of the pack.
Maybe Zeta Jones can win for Supp Actress. Blanchett is not overdue that time (2nd nom only), Hudson has the welcome to the club nom, and Weisz won't factor in. Zellweger is on her third nom, and following this scenario, she's co-nominated with CZJ for a movie where she's the lead. Okay, I'm gonna go against the dds here and say Renee wins.
Actor is definitely between Hoffman and Whitaker. I'm not sure who would have the edge, but Hoffman was in BP.Actress is Mirren vs Theron. Theron undoubtly put on the best performance of the decade, but Mirren had a million more factors like overdue, veteran, BP nominee, and had a very baity role. Theron was miles better but I think Mirren would still win it.Supporting Actress is a real head scratcher. It's definitely between Zeta Jones, Blanchett, and Zellweger. All 3 were in BP films, and had difficult roles to pull off. Cate and Renee however are far more respected and aren't one shot wonders unlike Catherine. Although she was in the BP winner, and it seems her Performance is much more well recieved by fans and critics. She also had some competition. Cate and Renee were the default winners of their category, everyone else sucked in '03-'04 supporting actress race (With the exception of Sophie Okenado and Clarkson was nodded for the wrong film.) So in the end I think it would be Zeta-Jones. Cooper would win easily. Arkin and Clooney were terrible winners. Robbins and Freeman were average.
Helen Mirren lost any award in 2006/2007? I don't recall, she even won the streak LA/NY/NBR/NS, Helen was the only Oscar winner that had this streak in women side and if you put this along the best picture nominee and the overdue factor, Theron would haven't stand a chance against her, I prefer Theron than Mirren but her movie was smaller and even in 2003 the others like Watts and Keaton had a chance of win, small but they had.
the same can be said about Whitaker, the only difference is the Hoffman was in a BP nominee and Forest wasn't.