Notification Tool : Final Tony Winner Predictions
Follow what's new with:
Final Tony Winner Predictions
Choose Your Delivery Preferences:
Immediate Notification by Email
Email
  

Advertisement

Jun 4th 2012, 11:32
Hide Post    
offlineBenedick
Hi Benedick,
would like to add you as a friend on goldderby.com. Friends can exchange messages in private and see each others updates on their profiles.

Joined: Jan 8th 2012, 15:30
Total Topics: 3, Posts: 166
View Predictions
Share your thoughts here.

I'll take on the Musical categories first. The NY Times Poll usually released a few days before the ceremony is typically accurate and helpful; some of my thoughts may change based on that.

BEST MUSICAL
ONCE
We were braced for a showdown but it's become the consensus best musical of the season, sweeping every major NY theater award. I can't remember the last time that happened and the show didn't go on to win the Tony.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
NEWSIES
By default, really, and also probably its major consolation prize.

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL
ONCE
There's a chance "Newsies" take this as well (and still loses Best Musical) but "Once" is really well set-up to take the top award and that tips this in its favor.

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL
FOLLIES
There has always seemed more passion for "Follies" than "P&B", and I think that will carry it through here, but "P&B" topped it in overall nominations and got that surprise Best Direction nod. I'll be looking for a little clarity in the Times poll on this one.

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL
JOHN TIFFANY, ONCE
His contribution to the success of the show feels significant, and with the DD and the OCC to his name and his show taking every Best Musical trophy of the season, it seems unlikely he'll lose.

BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
DANNY BURSTEIN, FOLLIES
Jeremy Jordan and Steve Kazee will likely be disadvantaged by both being male ingenues up against a respected Broadway vet giving probably the best performance of his career. Having already taken the DD and OCC, it's looking like it may finally be Burstein's year.

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
AUDRA McDONALD, PORGY AND BESS
Still a chance Jan Maxwell can upset if voters are tired of Audra winning and Jan losing, but the marriage Audra and Bess has long been anticipated, and she didn't disappoint. It's also her first serious shot at a Leading Actress Tony. Feels like hers to lose.

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL
MICHAEL McGRATH, NICE WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT
Michael Cerveris may be the best thing about "Evita", but I'm not sure that's enough to win, considering how nobody really likes the show. If he'd never won before, different story maybe, but he has, and sort of recently. Instead I feel the momentum is with McGrath, a lovable Broadway character actor, who has already nabbed the DD and OCC for this role.

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL
JUDY KAYE, NICE WORK IF YOU CAN GET IT
Judy Kaye's first and last Tony was for "Phantom of the Opera", and the community seems ready to give her another, and for doing what she does best: stealing scenes. Also some nice symmetry that her two Tonys would be from shows whose most memorable scenes feature chandeliers.

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY
CHRISTOPHER GATELLI, NEWSIES
Really one of the major reasons to see it: agile young men flipping and kicking and twirling through the air for two hours.

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS
MARTIN LOWE, ONCE
Bit of a toughie. Could go hand-in-hand with score, and usually does, or there might be an upset coming from "P&B", though I have a feeling purists may prevent that from happening. Instead I think voters will feel that the finessing of "Once's" songs from film to stage deserves their vote.

BEST SCENIC DESIGN: SPIDER MAN
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: FOLLIES
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN: GHOST
BEST SOUND DESIGN: PORGY AND BESS (just a guess)

Plays tomorrow.


Jun 4th 2012, 11:59
Hide Post    
offlinedannyboy.
Hi dannyboy.,
would like to add you as a friend on goldderby.com. Friends can exchange messages in private and see each others updates on their profiles.

Joined: Oct 11th 2010, 14:49
Total Topics: 6, Posts: 1,710
View Predictions
Which day do we get the NYTimes Poll?
Jun 4th 2012, 12:54
Hide Post    
offlinetonorlo
Hi tonorlo,
would like to add you as a friend on goldderby.com. Friends can exchange messages in private and see each others updates on their profiles.

Joined: Oct 4th 2011, 10:05
Total Topics: 1, Posts: 630
View Predictions

Best Play
Clybourne Park *
Other Desert Cities
Peter and the Starcatcher
Venus in Fur

“Clybourne Park” seems to have the most going for it in terms of critical and audience acceptance verging on “Yes, this is ART worthy of consideration” snob appeal. That having been said, there seems to be a very eager audience for “Peter and the Starcatcher” and the consensus that there is more of a good time to be had (rather than making an appeal to loftier heights) with “Other Desert Cities.” “Venus in Fur” falls somewhere in the middle of that spectrum, and doesn’t have a chance. I wouldn’t be averse to an “Other Desert Cities” upset, but wouldn’t it be SOMETHING if “Peter” flew off with the Tony?


Best Musical
Leap of Faith
Newsies
Nice Work If You Can Get It
Once *

By now, the burgeoning swell for “Once” is looking increasingly like a genuine wave. And as “Mary Poppins” taught us, the lack of the top trophy need not necessarily deter box office receipts (besides, Disney & Co. have their “Lion King” honors to keep warm with). One may give a respectful salute to the never-really-had-a-shot “Nice Work,” even though it revisits the same formula as 1992’s top winner, “Crazy for You” (the best of Gershwin set to an original book). Still scratching my head over the solitary nod for “Leap of Faith”…


Best Revival of a Play
Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman *
Gore Vidal’s The Best Man
Master Class
Wit

Admittedly a rather pallid lineup, though “The Best Man” deserved more attention than it got. “Death of a Salesman” wins purely by default, as an inoffensive but not especially inspired re-tooling of a classic.

 
Best Revival of a Musical
Evita
Follies
The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
Jesus Christ Superstar

 

“Evita” tried to hold its head above the mixed reviews, and no one was particularly dancing in the streets when “Jesus Christ” came to town. The two duking it out are surely the critically hosanna-ed “Follies” (filling the now-essential “Sondheim spot” this year) and the top-nominated revival “Porgy and Bess,” which received mixed reviews but stars one of Broadway’s most celebrated contemporary leading women. (“Porgy” also benefits from the fact that it is still currently playing on the boards, whereas “Follies” has been closed for some time.) However, given its lavish production, stirring performances, and still sharp-as-a-whiskey-sour book and score, “Follies” should take the prize easily.

 

Best Book of a Musical
Lysistrata Jones (Douglas Carter Beane)
Newsies (Harvey Fierstein)
Nice Work If You Can Get It (Joe DiPietro)
Once (Enda Walsh) *

 

The goofy “Lysistrata Jones” is up for what was its strongest asset, but it’s still a dark horse. Never count out the venerable four-time Tony winner Fierstein, who has as many writing trophies as he has acting trophies. “Nice Work” just copped a Drama Desk win (without, however, having to go up against either of the two Best Musical frontrunners). But “Once” seems like the most likely scenario for the win out of this lineup, a smooth adaptation from screen to stage, which, particularly this year, has been pointed up as a very tricky tightrope to walk.

 

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Bonnie & Clyde (Music: Frank Wildhorn, Lyrics: Don Black)

Newsies (Music: Alan Menken, Lyrics: Jack Feldman) *

One Man, Two Guvnors (Music & Lyrics: Grant Olding)

Peter and the Starcatcher (Music: Wayne Barker, Lyrics: Rick Elice)

 

A truly dyspeptic lineup (two straight plays are included; the surest sign of creative ennui in this category). The notoriously cursed Frank Wildhorn manages to pull out nominations for so-so shows, and “Bonnie & Clyde” did nothing to further his particular reputation. Menken has been chasing Tonys for adapting his celebrated Disney scores to the stage since 1994’s “Beauty and the Beast,” and he will finally cop the elusive honor this go-round… which he can to add to his mountain of Oscars for those celebrated Disney scores.

 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

James Corden, One Man, Two Guvnors *
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
James Earl Jones, Gore Vidal’s The Best Man
Frank Langella, Man and Boy
John Lithgow, The Columnist

 

Our three past winners (Jones, Langella and Lithgow) are all sitting it out this time (like last year’s Brian Bedford, Jones would have had a FAR better opportunity had he been placed in the Featured category). The battle here is between two heavyweights: the unknown Corden, who highlights the year’s most celebrated comedy, and Hoffman, the movie star who helms one of the year’s most acclaimed dramas. Corden has been a favorite underdog all season long, and he has swept up the precursor prizes that have eluded his competitor Hoffman (whose turn got decidedly mixed notices, which even his high profile may be unable to overcome). Lately, the Tonys seem to be leaning more and more toward comedy turns (Julie White, Mark Rylance, of late), and if that particular trend holds up, Corden would benefit… deservedly so. But watch out. This will be a close one.

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Nina Arianda, Venus in Fur
Tracie Bennett, End of the Rainbow *
Stockard Channing, Other Desert Cities
Linda Lavin, The Lyons
Cynthia Nixon, Wit

 

It’s a pretty decent lineup when Cynthia Nixon is the undisputable dark horse. There are three women worth keeping eyes on here. Channing and Arianda both benefit from being in well-received Best Play nominees. Channing is a veteran (and past Tony winner), and hers is a role (overbearing mom in a dysfunctial family) that the Tonys really gravitate toward (see recently: Deanna Dunagan of “August: Osage County”). Arianda has a great deal of goodwill stored up from her critical raves for “Venus,” as well as her nominated performance only last season in “Born Yesterday.” Conveniently for Bennett, however, Arianda and Channing have been ineligible for this year’s precursor prizes, and Bennett has snapped each one up. She could easily continue her streak for the biggest prize of all, in a role that the entertainment cognoscenti will be hard-pressed to resist: as the iconic, emotionally troubled singer Judy Garland, Bennett acts and sings up a storm in “End of the Rainbow,” and the sheer amount of work she’s putting into her performance each night will be difficult to floss out of the memory as voters are marking their ballots. Arianda could edge her out, but I’m betting on Bennett.

 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Danny Burstein, Follies *
Jeremy Jordan, Newsies
Steve Kazee, Once
Norm Lewis, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
Ron Raines, Follies

 

Yeah, lousy vehicle or not, I was shocked that Tony darling Raul Esparza didn’t make the cut, too. After bombing out earlier in the year in one of the season’s biggest misfires, “Bonnie & Clyde,” Jordan dusted himself off and redeemed himself by starring in one of the season’s biggest hits. He could win in a showing of ‘cursory nod to a talented up-and-comer” acknowledgement (see John Lloyd Young of “Jersey Boys”), but so could Steve Kazee of “Once,” who I’ve felt from Day One was an underrated player in the game. But with the announcement of the Drama Desk Awards, a wild card has emerged in Burstein, who has recently found himself on the Tony radar in the last few years via his scene-stealing turns in “The Drowsy Chaperone” and “South Pacific.” He’s got as good a shot as any of these guys, frankly (Lewis and Raines, excellent though they are, are here only as choice filler). I’m leaning toward Burstein for the moment, but don’t be overly surprised if Jordan jetes over him in the final vote.

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Jan Maxwell, Follies
Audra McDonald, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess *
Cristin Milioti, Once
Kelli O’Hara, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Laura Osnes, Bonnie & Clyde

 

It’s got to be frustrating to be Maxwell at the Tonys. A hardworking theatre veteran, she’s racked up a mantelpiece of nomination certificates, and she’s never yet won. Praised for having given one of the finest musical performances of the season in “Follies,” Maxwell nevertheless seems to be having her thunder stolen from her by another competitor… one who, rubbing salt in an already open wound, has already won FOUR Tonys. Indeed, the Tonys have displayed a lavish affection for McDonald on par with their seeming indifference to Maxwell, and with McDonald having copped the OCC and Drama Desk Awards, there seems to be a pretty good chance that she is about to join the esteemed ranks of Julie Harris and Angela Lansbury as only the third woman to win five acting Tonys (incidentally, this would be McDonald’s first Leading Actress award, if she is in fact the victor). Milioti and Osnes don’t have a prayer between them, and O’Hara, who has racked up her own mantelpiece of nominations over the past decade, desperately needs a role that allows her to be more than a cute and spunky soprano-for-hire. She is a Tony waiting to happen, but not this year.

 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Christian Borle, Peter and the Starcatcher *
Michael Cumpsty, End of the Rainbow
Tom Edden, One Man, Two Guvnors
Andrew Garfield, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Jeremy Shamos, Clybourne Park

 

All of these men bring excellent work to the table to be considered. However, Borle and Garfield are the two to bet on. Borle, a Broadway veteran and the only one to be a previous Tony nominee, stars in a highly versatile, scene-stealing comic turn, while Garfield, heretofore known for his film star status, essays the role of one of the American theatre’s most tortured young sons. Whether Borle’s momentum with the voters or whether Garfield’s starpower will win the day remains to be seen (remember: only two years ago, film ingénue Scarlett Johansson managed a Tony win over some august stage elders), but if the voting Broadway-ites decide to embrace one of their own, make way for Borle.

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Linda Emond, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Spencer Kayden, Don’t Dress for Dinner
Celia Keenan-Bolger, Peter and the Starcatcher
Judith Light, Other Desert Cities *
Condola Rashad, Stick Fly

 

A very odd cache of nominees, though three have better-than-adequate chances. Keenan-Bolger is the lone female in one of the year’s most thoroughly enjoyed-across-the-boards productions, Emond is in a Tony-magnet role that has done the trick for one predecessor as Linda Loman (Elizabeth Franz), and Light is a veteran with not just stage but television recognition to amp up her profile (she also has momentum from her nomination in last season’s “Lombardi” in this same category). It could be Emond, but Light has the most in her favor, as she has the esteem of her colleagues for her years of consistent work and the fact that she is looking increasingly like the best (maybe only) place to throw the well-liked “Other Desert Cities” a bone.

 

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Phillip Boykin, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess *
Michael Cerveris, Evita
David Alan Grier, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
Michael McGrath, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Josh Young, Jesus Christ Superstar

 

Probably the most up-in-the-air acting race of the night (and also the category where it’s easiest to win for being the best thing in a so-so vehicle). The ever-reliable Cerveris and McGrath received an expected accolade for their consistently fine work in “Evita” and “Nice Work” respectively, and Young received a surprise nod in “Superstar”’s baitiest role (though he could legitimately qualify as a lead in his vehicle). There are also two nominees from “Porgy” to battle each other. While Grier has the higher profile, Boykin got the superior reviews… Then again, Cerveris is nearly a decade away from his first Tony win (for “Assassins”) and some may feel he is due again… Then again, McGrath, fresh off a Drama Desk win, might usurp them all. In a no-guts-no-glory pick, I’m going to go with Boykin.

 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Elizabeth A. Davis, Once
Jayne Houdyshell, Follies
Judy Kaye, Nice Work If You Can Get It *
Jessie Mueller, On A Clear Day You Can See Forever
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Ghost the Musical

 

Houdyshell won some appreciative applause (and knocked out her higher-profile co-star Elaine Paige in the bargain) by singing the Sondheim chestnut “Broadway Baby,” but past winner Kaye looks like she may be returning to the winners’ circle, having copped the Drama Desk Award for “Nice Work If You Can Get It.” (In a category with no one clear favorite, it sometimes becomes necessary to follow where the wind is blowing.) Randolph really ought to take this in a cakewalk, but for some bizarre reason, despite getting nominated in all the right places and walking off with some of her vehicle’s best notices, she has never really gained the momentum needed to translate into a win. If the Tonys throw us a legitimate and deserved curveball anywhere in the acting categories, it would be here. (Speaking of curveballs: who, I ask, WHO saw the Davis and Mueller nods coming?)

 

Best Direction of a Play
Nicholas Hytner, One Man, Two Guvnors
Pam MacKinnon, Clybourne Park
Mike Nichols, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman *
Roger Rees and Alex Timbers, Peter and the Starcatcher

 

Too bad “Other Desert Cities” Joe Mantello is MIA… Earlier in the season, I was predicting a return to glory for Hytner (who helmed the Tony-winning “Carousel” in 1994), but I’m starting to wonder if “Death of a Salesman” may get some excess love besides its much-anticipated Revival win. If that does happen, I think that perhaps Nichols will be the likely beneficiary. I hope I’m wrong, but… It’s also really a shame that Rees and Timbers have to go up against such heavy hitters; in most other years, their highly innovative efforts would have stood a much better chance.

 

Best Direction of a Musical
Jeff Calhoun, Newsies
Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Diane Paulus, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
John Tiffany, Once

 

It could be argued that he’s got the least to do with the least unwieldy production of these four, but Tiffany takes a small jewel in “Once” and polishes it up to a shining pearl. In most other years, it probably could have gone to Calhoun easily.

 

Best Choreography
Rob Ashford, Evita
Christopher Gattelli, Newsies *
Steven Hoggett, Once
Kathleen Marshall, Nice Work If You Can Get It

 

The one slam-dunk for “Newsies” of the night. Marshall has already been (recently) honored, so no one will feel too badly asking her to sit out this time; both she and Ashford will surely be back again, and soon.

 

Best Scenic Design of a Play
John Lee Beatty, Other Desert Cities
Daniel Ostling, Clybourne Park
Mark Thompson, One Man, Two Guvnors
Donyale Werle, Peter and the Starcatcher *

 

Actually, any of these could win, but “Peter” is bound to sweep up a few tech wins.

 

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Bob Crowley, Once
Rob Howell and Jon Driscoll, Ghost the Musical
Tobin Ost and Sven Ortel, Newsies
George Tsypin, Spider-Man Turn Off The Dark *

 

Yeah, the show is a train wreck, but the innovative sets of “Spider-Man” were nominated for a reason. Runner-up: “Ghost.”

 

Best Costume Design of a Play
William Ivey Long, Don’t Dress for Dinner *
Paul Tazewell, A Streetcar Named Desire
Mark Thompson, One Man, Two Guvnors
Paloma Young, Peter and the Starcatcher

 

At first glance, this may seem like another easy tech nod for “Peter” to sweep up, but the Tonys are unusually fond of Long, and he doesn’t always win for having  the most elaborate costumes (remember his “Grey Gardens” victory over “Mary Poppins” from only several years ago?). Also: how long has it been since Catherine Zuber wasn’t up for ANYTHING?

 

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Gregg Barnes, Follies *
ESosa, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
Eiko Ishioka, Spider-Man Turn Off The Dark
Martin Pakledinaz, Nice Work If You Can Get It

 

The  bouquets of color, swaths of furs and overpowering Ziegfeld-esque regalia will allow Barnes to win easily. Ishioka and Pakledinaz, thanks for playing.

 

Best Lighting Design of a Play
Jeff Croiter, Peter and the Starcatcher *
Peter Kaczorowski, The Road to Mecca
Brian MacDevitt, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Kenneth Posner, Other Desert Cities

 

The much-nominated veteran MacDevitt could certainly pull it off for “Salesman,” but I’m checking this off as another “Peter” victory.

 

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Christopher Akerlind, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
Natasha Katz, Follies
Natasha Katz, Once
Hugh Vanstone, Ghost the Musical *

 

Probably “Ghost”’s best shot at a win, and it is certainly a worthy competitor. Akerlind and Katz will definitely be back before long.

 

Best Sound Design of a Play
Paul Arditti, One Man, Two Guvnors
Scott Lehrer, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Gareth Owen, End of the Rainbow
Darron L. West, Peter and the Starcatcher *

 

This also has a decent shot at going to Owen, who juggles dramatic book scenes with impromptu concert numbers in “Rainbow,” but I’ll say West, who I predict will cap off the trail of tech wins for “Peter.”

 

Best Sound Design of a Musical
Acme Sound Partners, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess *
Clive Goodwin, Once
Kai Harada, Follies
Brian Ronan, Nice Work If You Can Get It

 

Always an iffy proposition to predict, but three wins for all of "Porgy"'s nominations sounds like a fairly legitimate ratio to me.

 

Best Orchestrations
William David Brohn and Christopher Jahnke, The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess
Bill Elliott, Nice Work If You Can Get It
Martin Lowe, Once *
Danny Troob, Newsies

 

Brohn/Jahnke and Troob aren’t out-of-this-world impossibilities, but Lowe stands a decent shot at benefiting from his vehicle’s frontrunner status. Why not?

Jun 4th 2012, 16:49
Hide Post    
offlinedannyboy.
Hi dannyboy.,
would like to add you as a friend on goldderby.com. Friends can exchange messages in private and see each others updates on their profiles.

Joined: Oct 11th 2010, 14:49
Total Topics: 6, Posts: 1,710
View Predictions
I just made Peter and the Starcatcher my pick for Best Play. Other Desert Cities and Clybourne Park have had very little buzz, unlike One Man, Two Guvners, End of the Rainbow and Peter and the Starcatcher. The only one of those three nominated? Peter and the Starcatcher. I'd personally be fine with either Other Desert Cities or Peter and the Starcatcher winning..
Jun 5th 2012, 08:54
Hide Post    
offlineBenedick
Hi Benedick,
would like to add you as a friend on goldderby.com. Friends can exchange messages in private and see each others updates on their profiles.

Joined: Jan 8th 2012, 15:30
Total Topics: 3, Posts: 166
View Predictions
BEST PLAY
CLYBOURNE PARK
All of these plays premiered off-Broadway either last season or the season before that, which makes it difficult to weigh their odds against one another. "Peter" has the biggest nominations haul of the bunch and could benefit from being an alternative for voters who can't decide between "Other Desert Cities" and "Clybourne Park". But will voters let this go to an adaptation of a children's book for the second consecutive year, when they have two big new plays by noteworthy American playwrights? I don't think they will. "ODC" is more traditional Broadway comfort food -- it's a Hellman-esque play with secrets some slightly forced reversals  -- whereas "Clybourne" is an ensemble piece with an innovative structure that centers around a theme rather than a single character's arc. "Clybourne" brought a lot of thoughtful observation to the subject of race, which will haunt us forever, and its connection to "Raisin in the Sun" certainly can do nothing but help it. I say it edges out the others but expect this to be close.

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY
DEATH OF A SALESMAN
There is really no other competition, and that's mostly why it will win. People forget that the production, while a big financial hit because of PSH and Spiderman, got mostly mixed reviews; from the way journalists and media pundits talk about the show, you'd think the production was some sort of masterpiece. It really makes me wonder if some of these people haven't either read or seen "Death of a Salesman" since high school.

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY
MIKE NICHOLS, DEATH OF A SALESMAN
I really hope voters, before marking their ballots, stop to consider if this "Salesman" (which uses the original sets and music) was enough of a directorial accomplishment to hand Mike Nichols his NINTH Tony Award -- especially since there are some pretty terrific achievements to choose from here. Farce is deadly without a good director nimbly pulling the strings, and that's just what Nick Hytner did; Pam MacKinnon smoothly handled a play where the entire cast is onstage together pretty much the entire show; and perhaps nowhere is the contribution of the director more obvious than in the imaginative "Peter and the Starcatcher". It should go to one of them, but I can't decide which is most likely. And they love Mike Nichols.

BEST LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY
JAMES CORDEN, ONE MAN, TWO GUVNORS
One has to wonder why journalists and self-styled "experts" continue to claim that PSH will win this in his sleep, considering James Corden has ritualistically beaten him in their pre-cursor match-ups, and Hoffman lost the Drama League performance of the year award to Audra McDonald. It could just as easily go to Hoffman, but Corden is the one people seem to be talking about; it's a star-making performance and the guy is hugely charismatic. Also probably the best shot his play has at a win, and I think the show is too well-liked to go home empty-handed. Salesman is virtually guaranteed other prizes.

BEST LEADING ACTRESS IN A PLAY
TRACIE BENNETT, END OF THE RAINBOW
Lavin once again demonstrates how giftedly naturalistic a comic actress she is and Channing does some sharp but beautifully restrained work in her play. Either could have won in another year, but against this roster both feel a little too low-key to win. I would give it without reservations to the brilliant Nina Arianda--it helps that her play was nominated as well, and that she's a major new home-grown talent--but the emotional turmoil of Judy Garland is reliable awards bait, and Tracie Bennett throws herself into it with manic abandon. Plus, she sings. A lot.  

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY
ANDREW GARFIELD, DEATH OF A SALESMAN
Tom Edden is the category's requisite scene-stealer (never count them out) and Jeremy Shamos, being the only member of his cast nominated, could benefit from a desire to honor the acting in his play. But the frontrunners seem to be Christian Borle and Andrew Garfield, in extremely different types of performances, so different it almost feels bizarre to compare them. Garfield's the real deal as an actor, even if he was slightly miscast in the role, and I think the gravitas of what he gets to play edges out Borle's charmingly sly turn.   

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY
JUDITH LIGHT, OTHER DESERT CITIES
Spencer Kayden is the category's requisite scene-stealer (never count them out) but Judith Light seems to have the most going for her; she was nominated in this category last year for a well-recieved performance, and it's the most logical place for "ODC" to pick up a win. Linda Emond, by virtue of the role she's playing, could have a chance as well, but seems to have no buzz.

BEST SCENIC DESIGN: PETER AND THE STARCATCHER
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: PETER AND THE STARCATCHER
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN: PETER AND THE STARCATCHER
BEST SOUND DESIGN: PETER AND THE STARCATCHER 
Jun 5th 2012, 09:07
Hide Post    
offlineBenedick
Hi Benedick,
would like to add you as a friend on goldderby.com. Friends can exchange messages in private and see each others updates on their profiles.

Joined: Jan 8th 2012, 15:30
Total Topics: 3, Posts: 166
View Predictions
Quote by tonorlo

Best Play
Clybourne Park *
Other Desert Cities
Peter and the Starcatcher
Venus in Fur

“Clybourne Park” seems to have the most going for it in terms of critical and audience acceptance verging on “Yes, this is ART worthy of consideration” snob appeal. That having been said, there seems to be a very eager audience for “Peter and the Starcatcher” and the consensus that there is more of a good time to be had (rather than making an appeal to loftier heights) with “Other Desert Cities.” 



I find it interesting that you say there's a consensus that there's more of a good time to be had at "ODC" than "Clybourne Park". I feel exactly the opposite. The audience response to "Clybourne" was by far the more enthusiastic of the two at the performances I attended; no question it's the funnier and livelier of the two.

Furthermore, I have to say I completely disagree that "Clybourne" relies more on snob appeal than "ODC", which for all its virtues (and they are many) is essentially a play about an upper middle-class family throwing back highballs and sparing over politics. It's a bread and butter play for Lincoln Center Theater's subscription base, an elderly well-to-do crowd, and seems to be appealing to the same sort of audience on Broadway.   
Jun 5th 2012, 11:18
Hide Post    
offlineBrandoObsession
Hi BrandoObsession,
would like to add you as a friend on goldderby.com. Friends can exchange messages in private and see each others updates on their profiles.

Joined: Sep 25th 2011, 22:04
Total Topics: 3, Posts: 192
View Predictions
I would freak the heck out, in a good way, if 'Peter and the Starcatcher' nads the top prize. 
Jun 5th 2012, 11:35
Hide Post    
offlinedannyboy.
Hi dannyboy.,
would like to add you as a friend on goldderby.com. Friends can exchange messages in private and see each others updates on their profiles.

Joined: Oct 11th 2010, 14:49
Total Topics: 6, Posts: 1,710
View Predictions
Quote by BrandoObsession
I would freak the heck out, in a good way, if 'Peter and the Starcatcher' nads the top prize. 





I am hearing SO MUCH about Peter and the Starcatcher that it is tough for me to ignore.. I hear next to nothing about Clybourne Park or Other Desert Cities which makes me think that Peter is peaking at exactly the right time. If its a choice between CP and ODC, I would quite easily vote for Other Desert Cities. Peter and the Starcatcher is still my choice for the win.
Jun 6th 2012, 19:41
Hide Post    
offlineBrandoObsession
Hi BrandoObsession,
would like to add you as a friend on goldderby.com. Friends can exchange messages in private and see each others updates on their profiles.

Joined: Sep 25th 2011, 22:04
Total Topics: 3, Posts: 192
View Predictions
Quote by Dannyboy
Quote by BrandoObsession
I would freak the heck out, in a good way, if 'Peter and the Starcatcher' nads the top prize. 





I am hearing SO MUCH about Peter and the Starcatcher that it is tough for me to ignore.. I hear next to nothing about Clybourne Park or Other Desert Cities which makes me think that Peter is peaking at exactly the right time. If its a choice between CP and ODC, I would quite easily vote for Other Desert Cities. Peter and the Starcatcher is still my choice for the win.


The buzz for 'Clybourne Park' is certainly there. Afterall, anything that wins a Pulitzer can't be ignored. 'Other Desert Cities' on the other hand, I rolled my eyes during the entire 2nd act. Overacting (most subtle being the frontrunner Light), overdramatic, all melodrama (oh, that "twist").

But you're right. It seems 'Peter and the Starcatcher' is peaking at the right time.  
Jun 6th 2012, 21:53
Hide Post    
offlineSpenser Davis
Hi Spenser Davis,
would like to add you as a friend on goldderby.com. Friends can exchange messages in private and see each others updates on their profiles.

Joined: May 22nd 2011, 03:01
Total Topics: 14, Posts: 1,268
View Predictions
My final predictions:


 

BEST PLAY

"CLYBOURNE PARK"

This Pulitzer Prize winner seems to be the near-perfect storm of critical acclaim, snob appeal, and crowd-pleasing comedy that can win over voters. However, while many believe that "Other Desert Cities" is the play to offer the biggest upset, I think that "Peter and the Starcatcher" is the audience favorite that could take the top prize. The enthusiasm for the show is incredible, and it might add up to a surprise win here.


 

BEST MUSICAL

"ONCE"

As far as I'm concerned, "Leap of Faith" and "Nice Work If You Can Get It" are non-factors here, leaving the race between "Once" (the critics darling with a heart of gold) and "Newsies," the big-budget Disney adaptation with a heck of a production value and a much larger scale. In other years, I would side with the latter, because the Tony is often won by the show that would do better on tour. But with the well-timed announcement that "Once" will also be going on tour next year, I think that factor is neutralized, leaving voters to follow their hearts and choose "Once."


 

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

"DEATH OF A SALESMAN"

 

Despite its mixed reviews, I think that "Salesman" gets this award. "The Best Man" could've done it at one point, but the showing hasn't been as good as it could've been.
 
 

 

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

"FOLLIES"

Earlier this year, I thought that "Porgy and Bess" might've won this race. But the buzz for "Follies" continues to hum across the Interwebs, making me think that it'll win this award. And from what I hear, it is much deserved.
 

 

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL

ENDA WALSH, "ONCE"

"Nice Work If You Can Get It" won the Drama Desk, sure. But I don't see "Nice Work" winning any of the top awards, and especially not while it is against the two Best Musical frontrunners here. "Lysistrata Jones" will be the "Xanadu" of the year, nominated for a quirky, enjoyable book that could make for a fun win but really doesn't have a chance (the fact that Beane wrote both books should not seem like a coincidence). Fierstein has a long history of winning Tonys for his writing. But even so, and even if "Newsies" ends up with the Best Musical award, I still think that voters will look at this category as a way to acknowledge "Once," which is understandably not present in the Best Score category.
  

 
 

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

"NEWSIES"

Part of me dislikes the idea of even predicting "Newsies" for the win here, as many Disney films adapted for Broadway feel as though they had lyrics changed and extra songs tacked on if only to qualify for this award. Many lyric changes made to this score make little sense to me, and yet I can't picture a scenario where "Newsies" loses. "Bonnie & Clyde," which does feature the destined-to-be-sung-at-auditions "Dyin' Ain't So Bad," won't beat it. And the other two nominees are plays. In fact, the only way that "Newsies" can lose here (which is won't) is if the "Peter and the Starcatcher" love is so huge that voters check it off the ballot here too. Menken does have a bit of a curse in this category after all, doesn't he?


 BEST ACTOR, PLAY

JAMES CORDEN, "ONE MAN, TWO GUVNORS"

I will freely admit to know very, very little about Corden, or about the play that he is in. But what I do know is his track record with awards this year, where he has been snabbing prize after prize. If I had anything to compare this to, it would be Rylance's first win for "Boeing Boeing," for which he won the Tony despite being pitted against some really heavyweight dramatic actors. I say Corden takes this one.

 

BEST ACTRESS, PLAY

TRACIE BENNETT, "END OF THE RAINBOW"

I thought this was going to be Nina Arianda's year. After missing out a few years back, Arianda reviving her much-acclaimed role in "Venus in Fur" felt like the envelope was practically sealed. But then Bennett hit the stage. Linda who? Stockard who? I'm told that Bennett's performance commands your attention from start to finish, and that the sheer energy she exudes night after night is exhausting to even watch. That's the kind of powerhouse performance that voters have trouble ignoring. If Nina loses, it will be to Ms. Bennett.

 

BEST ACTOR, MUSICAL

DANNY BURSTEIN, "FOLLIES"

This was looking like Jeremy Jordan's year, as the young guy who demands you pay attention through his work. But Burstein's the vet, and he is in what I have down as the best revival of the season. He takes it.

 

BEST ACTRESS, MUSICAL

AUDRA MACDONALD, "PORGY AND BESS"

Audra has won before. Jan Maxwell hasn't. Remember that year when she was nominated in both featured and lead categories, and lost both? I do. And I'm sure some voters do too. If this becomes a case of spreading the wealth, Jan's got this, both for her great work and because she's due. But Audra MacDonald keeps winning for a reason: she's fantastic! I'm sticking with her for now, but in solidarity for giving credit where credit is (over)due, I'm rooting for Jan Maxwell.

 

The rest are predictions without explanations, which I might come back in and write up later.

BEST FEATURED ACTOR, PLAY: Christian Borle, "Peter and the Starcatcher"

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS, PLAY: Judith Light, "Other Desert Cities"

BEST FEATURED ACTOR, MUSICAL: Michael McGrath, "Nice Work If You Can Get It"

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS, MUSICAL: Judy Kaye, "Nice Work If You Can Get It"

BEST DIRECTION, PLAY: Mike Nichols, "Death of a Salesman"

BEST DIRECTION, MUSICAL: John Tiffany, "Once"

Please visit my blog MY ONE SENTENCE REVIEWS. It is fast, easy, and a little gimmicky.
http://myonesentencereviews.wordpress.com<
Jun 7th 2012, 03:16
Hide Post    
offlineKarl William
Hi Karl William,
would like to add you as a friend on goldderby.com. Friends can exchange messages in private and see each others updates on their profiles.

Joined: May 16th 2011, 19:23
Total Topics: 6, Posts: 265
View Predictions
I'm keeping my predictions so I just copied and pasted them.

Best Musical: Once
Momentum seems to be shifting that way. In addition to the nimber of nominations, other awards wins and the fact that they're touring leads me to believe they have the edge... and they are the best musical of the year. Overall, support for the show has recently experienced a huge upswell, I am pretty confident that they will take this one.

Best Revival: Follies
It's going to be close, but I think Follies will just pull off the win over Porgy and Bess. The was the controversey of taking out 2.5 hours out of a classic so that could prevent Porgy from getting the top prize.

Director: John Tiffany, Once
Just has to. His direction was beautiful and I think the show as whole had a great unity and smartness to it.

Best Score: Newsies
There just isn't any competition and it would be a way to recognize Newsies

Best Book: Once
For me it's just the strongest in the category and is another major award for Once

Lead Actor: Danny Burstein, Follies
This is a really hard category. Literally any one of them could win. But I think that his performance can't be forgotten, it was incredible. Still, I wouldn't be surprised or dissapointed if Steve Kazee would make the walk to the podium. 

Lead Actress: Audra McDonald, Porgy and Bess
It would be a way to honor Porgy and Bess and I think she gave a fantastic performance either way. Although Maxwell did give the performance of her career and Milloti was just wonderful (and i would rather have one of the two win), McDonald has the edge.

Feat. Actor: Michael Cerveris, Evita
Feat. Actress: Judy Kaye, Nice Work if you Can Get it
Choreography: Newsies

Orchestrations: Once
For me this is one of their most deserved awards.

Scenic Design: Spiderman
Costumes: Follies
Lighting Design: Ghost
Sound Design: Once 

SAG voters get your s**t together!

Jun 10th 2012, 10:27
Hide Post    
offlineBalthazar
Hi Balthazar,
would like to add you as a friend on goldderby.com. Friends can exchange messages in private and see each others updates on their profiles.

Joined: Apr 6th 2012, 12:09
Total Topics: 2, Posts: 21
View Predictions
Coming from Lexington, Kentucky, I'd like to note that Steve Kazee has received quite a bit of press here.  Today's newspaper lists Jeremy Jordan & Norm Lewis as his prime competition (Danny Burstein & Ron Raines are noted only parenthetically as modest contenders). 
Jun 10th 2012, 10:57
Hide Post    
offlineAtypical
Hi Atypical,
would like to add you as a friend on goldderby.com. Friends can exchange messages in private and see each others updates on their profiles.

Joined: Dec 1st 2011, 13:32
Total Topics: 62, Posts: 4,361
View Predictions

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Best Play: “Clybourne Park”

Best Revival of a Play: “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Best Direction of a Play: Mike Nichols, “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play: Philip Seymour Hoffman, “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play: Tracie Bennett, “End of the Rainbow”

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play: Christian Borle, “Peter & the Starcatcher”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play: Judith Light, “Other Desert Cities”

Best Musical: “Once”

Best Revival of a Musical: “Follies”

Best Direction of a Musical: John Tiffany, “Once”

Best Book of a Musical: Enda Walsh, “Once”

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre: Alan Menken, Jack Feldman, “Newsies”

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical: Danny Burstein, “Follies”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical: Audra McDonald, “The Gershwins’ Porgy & Bess

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical: Michael McGrath, “Nice Work If You Can Get It”

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical: Judy Kaye, “Nice Work If You Can Get It”

Best Choreography: Christopher Gattelli, “Newsies”

Best Costume Design of a Play: Paloma Young, “Peter & the Starcatcher”

Best Costume Design of a Musical: Gregg Barnes, “Follies”

Best Lighting Design of a Play: Brian MacDevitt, “Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Best Lighting Design of a Musical: Hugh Vanstone, “Ghost the Musical”

Best Orchestrations: Danny Troob, “Newsies”

Best Scenic Design of a Play: Daniel Ostling, “Clybourne Park”

Best Scenic Design of a Musical: George Tsypin, “Spider-Man Turn Off the Dark”

Best Sound Design of a Play: Darron L. West, “Peter & the Starcatcher”

Best Sound Design of a Musical: Clive Goodwin, “Once”



" . . . for once, I get the feeling that I'm right where I belong"

Jun 10th 2012, 11:02
Hide Post    
offlineBenedick
Hi Benedick,
would like to add you as a friend on goldderby.com. Friends can exchange messages in private and see each others updates on their profiles.

Joined: Jan 8th 2012, 15:30
Total Topics: 3, Posts: 166
View Predictions
I picked Burstein for the win but put him and Kazee even in terms of odds to win; Jordan slightly behind, Lewis slightly behind him. All of them are possible.

The only revision I think I am going to make to my predictions will be switching to Nina Arianda. 
Jun 10th 2012, 11:07
Hide Post    
offlineTrent
Hi Trent,
would like to add you as a friend on goldderby.com. Friends can exchange messages in private and see each others updates on their profiles.

Joined: May 14th 2011, 20:51
Total Topics: 151, Posts: 2,521
View Predictions
I 100% think that there could be a tie in Best Actor in a Musical. I could see any combination of Burstein, Jordan or Kazee tying for the win.
2013 Emmys FYC
Amy Poehler, Jane Krakowski, Matthew Perry, Martha Plimpton, Louis CK, Nick Offerman, Adam Scott, Garret Dillahunt