THE new Broadway musicals “Newsies” and “Once” won’t run the table at the Tony Awards on Sunday the way “The Book of Mormon” did last year or “Billy Elliot” did in 2009, when those hits were runaway favorites in multiple categories. But the 2012 awards ceremony, the biggest night of honors for the Broadway industry, offers something even more fun than singing missionaries and pint-size ballerinas: competition.

The horse race for best musical between “Newsies,” a high-energy show about 19th-century New York City newsboys, and “Once,” a low-key story of unrequited love on the streets of Dublin, is only one of an unusually high number of unpredictable contests at the Tonys. Other major categories as well — best play, best musical revival, best actor and actress in a play and best actor in a musical — have many of the 851 Tony voters struggling with a luxury problem they rarely experience: choosing a favorite from several strong contenders.

Interviews with 40 voters — theater producers, tour presenters, directors and designers, as well as actors — yielded few obvious winners in the balloting, which ends at 6 p.m. Friday. But the predictions business requires some odds setting, so herewith are the results from one crystal ball.

Best Musical

Voters like to honor commercially successful Broadway musicals because the Tony imprimatur — the industry’s most recognizable marketing tool — can help turn a popular show into a powerhouse at the box office in New York, as well as propel subsequent productions and tours nationally and overseas. Such conventional wisdom should favor “Newsies,” which is already grossing nearly $1 million a week.

But for all the popularity that “Newsies” enjoys with audiences, a majority of Tony voters surveyed said that “Once” had more artistic innovation, with inventive staging by John Tiffany (a sure bet for best director) and melancholy mood from the writer Enda Walsh (the front-runner for best book) pushing the form of musical theater more than the traditionally structured “Newsies” does. Several tour presenters also said that “Newsies” didn’t need their Tony votes to guarantee ticket sales on the road because the show already had an appealing brand name — its producer, Disney — that would draw audiences.

The other two nominees, the Gershwin musical “Nice Work if You Can Get It” and the now-shuttered flop “Leap of Faith,” are drawing relatively little support. Expect “Newsies” to win for best score (Alan Menken, on his fourth nomination, and Jack Feldman) and choreography (Christopher Gattelli), but the luck of the Irish is likely to pay off with a best musical victory for “Once.”

Best Play

Each of the four nominees — “Clybourne Park,” “Other Desert Cities,” “Peter and the Starcatcher” and “Venus in Fur” — has die-hard fans who say their favored show exudes expert craftsmanship and keen intelligence that deserve recognition. “Clybourne,” a satire on race relations that won the 2011 Pulitzer Prize for drama, nearly didn’t make it to Broadway after its lead producer withdrew because of a falling-out with the playwright Bruce Norris, turning “Clybourne” into the show that defied odds (at least in the eyes of its admirers). All four plays won acclaim from critics, and “Other Desert Cities” in particular is the sort of emotionally charged family drama, with political overtones to boot, that Tony voters tend to embrace.

“Peter and the Starcatcher,” a prequel to the classic Peter Pan story, is also receiving a healthy share of votes for creating a highly theatrical world of pirates and island adventure with minimal sets and props. “Peter” may have to settle for several design awards and a featured actor trophy for Christian Borle, who plays the forerunner to Captain Hook, and who is locked in a tight race with Andrew Garfield as Biff in the revival of “Death of a Salesman.” The race for best play is between “Desert Cities” and “Clybourne,” and Mr. Norris looks to be the winner.

Best Musical Revival

The Stephen Sondheim-James Goldman classic “Follies” lost for best musical in 1972 and best musical revival in 2001; the latest Broadway revival, which ran earlier in the 2011-12 season, was adored by many theater critics and fans of the show, not to mention more than a few Tony voters. The musical’s chief competition in the revival category is “The Gershwins’ Porgy and Bess,” whose two title performances, by the nominees Norm Lewis and Audra McDonald, have earned devotion among some Tony voters. Mr. Sondheim memorably criticized some script changes under consideration for “Porgy and Bess” last year. (The most radical changes were never made.) As it turns out, the race for best musical revival is between Mr. Sondheim’s show and the one he attacked. (The other nominees, “Evita” and “Jesus Christ Superstar,” have minimal support.) The votes in our sampling favor “Follies” by a hair, with “Porgy and Bess” more likely to receive recognition in acting categories.

Best Play Revival

There may be four nominees — “Death of a Salesman,” “Gore Vidal’s The Best Man,” “Master Class” and “Wit” — but here there is no contest. The critically praised “Salesman” will win, as it did for best play in 1949 and best revival in both 1984 and 1999. Mike Nichols has the lead in the voter survey for best director of a play for “Salesman,” over Roger Rees and Alex Timbers for “Peter and the Starcatcher.”

Best Actor, Play

This category is often a face-off between Americans and Britons, and this year is no different. Philip Seymour Hoffman’s Willy Loman had many Tony voters in tears at “Salesman,” while James Corden has them in stitches as the lovable manservant in the London import “One Man, Two Guvnors.” While James Earl Jones has some partisans for his pugnacious performance as a former American president in “The Best Man,” Mr. Corden and Mr. Hoffman have more votes than Mr. Jones and are tied in the survey. (The nominees Frank Langella and John Lithgow have more affection than votes.) In this era of the struggling everyman Mr. Hoffman would seem to have an edge.

Best Actress, Play

Cynthia Nixon (“Wit”) won the award six years ago for “Rabbit Hole,” but now she trails in the survey behind Nina Arianda (“Venus”), Tracie Bennett (“End of the Rainbow”), Stockard Channing (“Other Desert Cities”) and Linda Lavin (“The Lyons”). All four have ardent fans, but the survey favors Ms. Arianda for her sexy performance as a mysterious actress over Ms. Bennett as a late-in-life Judy Garland. The British-born Ms. Bennett has showstopping numbers as Garland, and some voters said they would be shocked if she lost. But the Tony is most likely going to Ms. Arianda, Broadway’s newest star.

Best Actor, Musical

Too close to call. Danny Burstein is a Broadway baby, beloved by his peers, and this year he has his third Tony nomination as the skirt-chasing husband Buddy in “Follies.” Jeremy Jordan and Steve Kazee are the leading men in the two best musical contenders, “Newsies” and “Once,” while Mr. Lewis is extolled by some voters for his restraint as Porgy in the Gershwin revival. (Ron Raines of “Follies” has far less support from voters.) Mr. Kazee and Mr. Burstein narrowly lead in this Tony survey, but the award could go to any of the four men, given the passionate support that each enjoys.

Best Actress, Musical