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Jun 29th 2012, 11:37
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offlineIrishmovielover4ever
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This is a continuation of my Jan-Jun thread goign through the months July-September, them from October I will make a single thread for each of those months.

This is the hardest part of the season because I have to guess by expectations with some films already released.

NOTE: IF A FILM IS NOT ON HERE, IT IS LISTED AS A 2012 FILM ON IMDB BUT IS NOT CONFIRMED TO BE RELEASED. AS OF JANUARY 31ST 2011, THIS MEANS THE LIKES OF "EFFIE", "FRANCINE", "INSIDE LWELYN DAVIS", "LOVELACE", "TAR", "THE ENGLISH TEACHER", "UNDER THE SKIN", "WHAT MAISIE KNEW", ET AL. CHANGES IN RELEASE DATES WILL BE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION AT THE MID-YEAR EDIT OF THIS DERBY.

BEST PICTURE:

FRONTRUNNERS
Amour
Anna Karenina
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Impossible
The Master
The Sessions
Zero Dark Thirty

IN THE RUNNING
Flight
Frances Ha
Holy Motors
Hyde Park on Hudson
Killing Them Softly
Moonrise Kingdom
Promised Land
Quartet
Rust & Bone
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Therese Raquin
To the Wonder

LONGSHOTS

Brave
Hope Springs
Lawless
Take this Waltz
The Avengers
The Grey
The Hunger Games
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
This is 40
Trouble with the Curve

BEST ACTOR:


FRONTRUNNERS
Ben Affleck, Argo
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Matt Damon, Promised Land
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Clint Eastwood, Trouble with the Curve
Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
John Hawkes, The Sessions
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
Bill Murray, Hyde Park on Hudson
Joaquin Phoneix, The Master
Christopher Plummer, Barrymore
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour
Denzel Washington, Flight

IN THE RUNNING
Joel Edgerton, Zero Dark Thirty
Richard Gere, Arbitrage
Tom Hardy, Lawless
Tommy Lee Jones, Hope Springs
Liam Neeson, The Grey
Brad Pitt, Killing Them Softly
Robert Redford, The Company You Keep
Matthias Schoenaerts, Rust & Bone
Suraj Sharma, Life of Pi
Terence Stamp, A Song for Marion

LONGSHOTS
Adrien Brody, Detachment
Billy Crystal, Parental Guidance
Tom Holland, The Impossible
Joseph Gordon Levitt, Looper
Tom Hanks, Cloud Atlas
Seth Rogen, Take This Waltz
Paul Rudd, This Is 40

BEST ACTRESS:

FRONTRUNNERS
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Penelope Cruz, Twice Born
Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Maggie Smith, Quartet
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed

IN THE RUNNING
Amy Adams, Trouble with the Curve
Viola Davis, Won't Back Down
Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Won't Back Down
Jennifer Lawrence, The Hunger Games
Melissa Leo, Francine
Laura Linney, Hyde Park on Hudson
Elizabeth Olsen, Therese Raquin
Kristen Wiig, Imogene
Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz

LONGSHOTS

Halle Berry, Cloud Atlas
Ann Dowd, Compliance
Greta Gerwig, Damsels in Distress
Melania Lynskey, Hello I Must Be Going
Leslie Mann, This is 40
Rachel McAdams, Passion
Bette Midler, Parental Guidance

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:


FRONTRUNNERS
Alan Arkin, Argo
Russell Crowe, Les Misérables
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook
Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained
Jude Law, Anna Karenina
William H. Macy, The Sessions
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike
Ewan McGregor, The Impossible
David Strathairn, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

IN THE RUNNING
Jim Broadbent, Cloud Atlas
Bryan Cranston, Argo
Michael Fassbender, Prometheus
Ralph Fiennes, Great Expectations
John Goodman, Argo
Jospeh Gordon Levitt, Lincoln
Woody Harrelson, Seven Psychopaths
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Matthew MacFadyen, Anna Karenina
Guy Pearce, Lawless

LONGSHOTS
Michael Caine, The Dark Knight Rises
Tom Courtenay, Quartet
Tom Cruise, Rock of Ages
Mikkel Boe Følsgaard, A Royal Affair
Michael Gambon, Quartet
Ian McKellen, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Eddie Redmayne, Les Misérables

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:


FRONTRUNNERS
Amy Adams, The Master
Samantha Banks, Les Misérables
Annette Bening, Imogene
Helena Bonham Carter, Great Expectations
Jessica Chastain, Lawless
Pauline Collins, Quartet
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jessica Lange, Therese Raquin
Vanessa Redgrave, Song for Marion
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotice Marigold Hotel
Kerry Washington, Django Unchained

IN THE RUNNING
Helena Bonham Carter, Les Misérables
Olivia Colman, Hyde Park on Hudson
Anne Hathaway, The Dark Knight Rises
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Frances McDormand, Promised Land
Susan Sarandon, The Company You Keep
Amanda Seyfried, Les Misérables
Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Jackie Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook
Olivia Williams, Hyde Park on Hudson

LONGSHOTS
Rosemarie DeWitt, Promised Land
Nina Dobrey, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Carmen Ejogo, Sparkle
Jane Fonda, Peace, Love & Misunderstanding
Whitney Housten, Sparkle
Gloria Reuben, Lincoln
Julia Stiles, Silver Linings Playbook

BEST DIRECTOR:


FRONTRUNNERS
Ben Affleck, Argo
Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Haneke, Amour
Tom Hooper, Les Misérables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Terrence Malick, To the Wonder
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight Rises
David O'Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Joe Wright, Anna Karenina
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

IN THE RUNNING
Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom
Juan Antonio Bayona, The Impossible
Andrew Dominik, Killing Them Softly
John Hillcoat, Lawless
Dustin Hoffman, Quartet
Peter Jackson, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Ben Lewin, The Sessions
Roger Michell, Hyde Park on Hudson
Tom Tykwer, Andy Wachowski & Lana Wachowski, Cloud Atlas
Robert Zemeckis, Flight

LONGSHOTS
Judd Apatow, This Is 40
Joe Carnahan, The Grey
Leos Carax, Holy Motors
David Frankel, Hope Springs
John Madden, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Joss Whedon, The Avenegers
Sarah Polley, Take This Waltz

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:


FRONTRUNNERS
Amour
Arbitrage
Compliance
Django Unchained
Frances Ha
Hope Springs
Moonrise Kingdom
Promised Land
Seven Psychopaths
The Impossible
The Master
To the Wonder
Zero Dark Thirty

IN THE RUNNING
Bernie
Damsels in Distress
Looper
Magic Mike
Not Fade Away
Ruby Sparks
Song for Marion
Take This Waltz
The Cabin in the Woods
The Guilt Trip

LONGSHOTS

Brave
Lola Versus
ParaNorman
Parental Guidance
To Rome with Love
Trouble with the Curve
Your Sister's Sister

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:


FRONTRUNNERS
Anna Karenina
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Great Expectations
Hyde Park on Hudson
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
The Company You Keep
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
The Sessions

IN THE RUNNING
Cloud Atlas
Killer Joe
Killing Them Softly
Lawless
Quartet
Rust & Bone
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Twice Born
What Maisie Knew

LONGSHOTS
21 Jump Street
Cosmopolis
On the Road
Skyfall
The Avengers
The Hunger Games
This is 40

Jun 29th 2012, 14:28
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offlineTrent
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Jennifer Lawrence looks promising in the trailer for SLP.
2013 Emmys FYC
Amy Poehler, Jane Krakowski, Matthew Perry, Martha Plimpton, Louis CK, Nick Offerman, Adam Scott, Garret Dillahunt
Jun 29th 2012, 14:30
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offlineScottferguson
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Amour should almost be listed among frontrunners for picture, actor, actress.. It is perfectly positioned to be the first FL best picture nominee since the expanded nominees. And, unlike most of the films listed, it has the advantage of already having been seen and acclaimed.

 

Jun 29th 2012, 14:32
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offlineTrent
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Morgan Freeman should be "in the running" for The Magic of Belle Isle.
2013 Emmys FYC
Amy Poehler, Jane Krakowski, Matthew Perry, Martha Plimpton, Louis CK, Nick Offerman, Adam Scott, Garret Dillahunt
Jun 29th 2012, 14:35
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offlineScottferguson
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We need to determine if Magic of Belle Island will be eligible (that is, confirm that it had a secret LA one week run prior to VOD). Magnolia does this sometimes (Melancholia, Take This Waltz), but not others.

 

Jun 29th 2012, 18:10
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offlineCarbon Based Lifeform
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Quote by beausalant
Jennifer Lawrence looks promising in the trailer for SLP.


Perhaps, but it will be canceled out by her appearance in the turgid potboiler "House at the End of the Street"...

Jun 29th 2012, 18:23
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offlineMadsonMelo
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Bullock received a nomination after All About Steve. Natalie Portman still won after the release of her rom-com with Ashton Kutcher, I don't think that HATEOStreet will affect Lawrence's chances.

and Take This Waltz is eligible? I'm rooting for a third nomination in a row for Miss Williams.
Jun 29th 2012, 18:30
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offlineScottferguson
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It is - it had a secret run in LA last month for a week before VOD
Williams is great in the film, but will be a longshot 

 

Jun 29th 2012, 18:39
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offlineMadsonMelo
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I think Halle Berry will be supporting and Julianne Moore will go lead.
Jun 30th 2012, 08:32
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offlineLaactingnyc
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Anna Karenina will probably get in

Best Picture
Best Actress
Best supporting Actor
Best director - it might not get in this one, but don't underestimate joe wright
Best adapted Screenplay
Best costume
Best original score

and possibly more.


I predict that Les miserables will get somewhere around 10 nominations and i predict that lincoln could get around 7 or 8 nominations and Anna karenina probably around 7 or 8........
Jun 30th 2012, 09:53
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offlineblueprint
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^ it's a shoo-in for art direction and costumes, the rest... We'll see. It's been quite a whille since a period drama of this kind was showered with nominations.
And if you wanna make sense
Whatcha looking at me for?
Jun 30th 2012, 10:09
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offlineScottferguson
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Any of these films is as likely to get 2-3 nominations as to be contenders.


The list of surefire Oscar nominees with late year releases in top categories that were just as sure is endless - Phantom of the Opera, Memoirs of a Geisha, Nine, J. Edgar, The Lovely Bones are all films that were every bit as much certain big nominees at this point their years.


Anna K has the advantage of being the potential Brit bloc contender of the year, but something else could end up being an alternative. 

 

Jun 30th 2012, 21:33
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offlineJulian Stark
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Since This is 40 focuses on characters who appeared in Knocked Up, does anyone else foresee possible Adapted/Original confusion?

Movies and Other Things..., where I constantly babble about the wonderful world of film, specifically the Oscars
Jul 3rd 2012, 05:48
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offlinerockstitution
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^I'm pretty sure it'll be adapted.
Jul 3rd 2012, 05:52
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offlinerockstitution
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Anna Karenina is in the 11-15 range for me at the moment. It has huge bomb potential.

Right now I'm going with these as the most likely ten:

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
The Dark Knight Rises
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
The Sessions

Keeping my eye out for Silver Linings Playbook, Anna Karenina, The Great Gatsby and especially Zero Dark Thirty to spoil. The Dark Knight Rises being the likeliest to fall.