My thoughts so far (UPDATED):
Technical direction for a non-series: Memphis (Great
John B. Field gets nominated in this category like crazy, but rarely wins. I
call this the “Always A Bridesmaid Effect”, or just Bridesmaid for short, and
it happens in the Emmys a TON. Out of the four noms, three are Field. This is
Technical direction for a series: Dancing With The Stars
Steven Cimino is the Bridesmaid of this category, so he’s out. BBT doesn’t have
a technical director, and no show without one has ever won this. Letterman gets
nominated a lot but doesn’t win in this category. That leaves DWTS
Criminal Minds has been nominated without wins in the past,
and it doesn’t seem particulatly stunt filled. Cadiente (Hawaii 5-0) is also a
Bridesmaid. Miniseries are rarely nominated let alone win, so AHS has a slim
chance. NCIS could have a chance if not
for the strong competition (it’s still a dark horse). The Grimm episode doesn’t
sound like it has any big showcases, but it still has a good chance. But
Southland will probably win again: the episode sounds like it has tons of
stunts from the description, and the AV Club review literally says “Southland
apparently wants to sink its claws into new viewers by throwing a lot of action
at the screen.” Sounds like a winner.
VFX in a supporting role: Boardwalk Empire
i.e., VFX for non-VFX shows. This is due to
the Boardwalk Empire “Upset” that everyone savvy saw coming because its VFX
reel was stunning. And Boardwalk Empire will almost certainly win again. For four out of the other five nominees, this
is their first Emmy nomination, the other guy has four noms and no wins.
Compare that to Taritero (Boardwalk’s guy), who has won Emmys three consecutive
VFX: Game of Thrones
And here are the VFX shows. Pan Am is out, it should really be in the less
competitive category as the VFX are not central. Andrew Orloff is nominated
twice this year, but he’s a Bridesmaid. Inside The Human Body is almost 100%
VFX, but it’s so different from other stuff found here that it probably won’t
win. That leaves Game of Thrones and Walking Dead. It’s a tossup, but I choose
Game of Thrones because it’s bigger in scale.
Nonfiction Sound Mixing: Deadliest Catch
Jim Ursulak (Amazing Race) is a Bridesmaid, as is Graham Wild (Frozen Planet)
(Heh, “Wild”). The Graceland flick is a
possibility as it deals with music, but the mixer is an unknown. Tom Fleischman
has won OSCARS, AND it’s a music-related film, so he has a very good chance,
but I’m going with Bob Bronow for Deadliest Catch because he’s won this
category twice in a row, and he won the important Cinema Audio Society award,
which tends to predict the Emmys.
Variety Sound Mixing: Grammy Awards
This category loves Paul Sandweiss, and
he’s nominated three out of four here. But the other is American Idol, which
won last year. But wait: The nominated sound mixer for Idol the year it won was
a different one than this year. So Sandweiss has it in the bag. Since he’s won
his past two Emmys for the Grammy ceremony, I’ll give it to him there.
Half-Hour Sound Mixing: Entourage
Man, lots of these Sound Mixing categories, aren’t there? Just wait: We haven’t
even gotten to sound EDITING. John Cook (P&R) is basically a bridesmaid,
despite a win his first year nominated, he’s failed to win despite six, now
seven, more nominations. Jan McLaughlin (Nurse Jackie) is a first-timer.
Stephen Tibbo (Modern Family) won in 2010, but lost last year despite a
not-that-competitive category, so the voters are probably done with him. 30
Rock’s nomination for their live show could give them a win, but it’s a risky
move (and they’ve gone three years without aa single emmy and won’t start
winning now). Tom Stasinis has gone
two-for-two at the Emmys, and Entourage’s finale (the word that makes Emmy
voters drool) has a good chance of making it three-for-three.
Hourlong Sound Mixing: Breaking Bad
The obvious standout here is Frank Morrone (Person Of Interest), who already
has two Emmys to everyone else’s none. But that’s not a sure indicator in this
category, which basically gives the award to the program with the most songs
and explosions, and there are no songs in any of the nominees. So let’s count
explosions! Person of Interest has no explosions. All the other shows have
tons. Breaking Bad only has two, but they’re both big, plot furthering, and
suspenseful. The other three all take place in war zones, so they have lots of
explosions. So, how to resolve this toss-up? Well… I’m just gonna pick Breaking Bad because it’s
NOT set at war, but it still has explosions. Or something. I don’t really know.
Finally, done with sound mixing!
Nonfiction Sound Editing: George Harrison: Living In The Material World
Oh, right, we still have sound EDITING. Amazing Race is a Bridesmaid, Tom Paul
is a first-timer, Dan Korintus’ program
has nothing fancy going on Sound wise. So it’s between Frozen Planet and George
Harrison: Living In The Material World. I’m going with the latter because the
guy won the emmy last year and won the Oscar this year.
Miniseries-movie-special Sound Editing: Hemingway & Gellhorn
…*sigh*, I have no idea. I’m just gonna
search the titles followed by various sound effects related words on google and
see how many hits they get. Aaand the
winner is Hemingway and Gellhorn.
Series Sound Editing: Game of Thrones
Oh man, another total tossup. Literally every nominee has a good chance of
winning. I’m going with game of thrones because it has lots of fighty war
scenes. But it could be anything.
Main Title Theme Music: Hell On Wheels
A Showtime show has won this award two years in a row, but hopefully it won’t
make that three because Homeland’s theme is uninteresting and dull, and hard to
hear over all the talking in the intro. Great Expectation’s theme is very
minimalist and the themes that win here tend to be fairly big and grand. Page
Eight’s theme is my personal favorite, but again it’s slight and jazzy, while
the Academy favors other styles. However, it is the longest of the bunch, which
definitely gives it a chance. Touch’s theme writers won this award year before
last with Nurse Jackie, and this sounds quite similar to that, perhaps the
Academy loves their style, in which case they could get the award, as Trevor
Morris did last year for his theme to Showtime’s The Borgias, which is very
similar to his other emmy-winning theme to Showtime’s The Tudors. They’re a
strong chance, but I think the winner will be two-time Oscar winner Gustavo
Santaolalla for his old-time-country theme to Hell On Wheels, both because the
music is excellent and on name power.
Music And Lyrics: It’s Not Just For Gays Anymore
Four out of the past five Emmy winners for best music and lyrics were comedic, the other was written by Randy
Newman for a series finale of an emmy-beloved show. So some country song for a
Lifetime movie is out, and Let Me Be Your Star is probably out as well,
although it has an outside chance. My favorite of the three remaining is the
charming Welcome Back to Hope, but it’s not on a show the Emmys love and it’s
just somebody singing and playing guitar, more a skit than a real, fleshed out
song. SNL won this category last year, and their submission this year is cute
and has muppets, but I think the winner will be It’s Not Just For Gays Anymore
from the beginning of the Tonys this year. I didn’t personally think the song
was that hilarious, but everyone seemed to like it, it has a big name singing
it, and it has a lot of jokes. Also, WHOOPS: http://www.cinewsnow.com/news/local/Mac--Macs-Pick-Welcome-back-to-hope--163805366.html
Outstanding Music Direction: Seth McFarlane: Swinging in Concert
This is a new category this year, or
rather “new” in the sense that it got cancelled in the 80s. The veterans
(previous nominees) are Ian Fraser, Rob Berman, Michael Tilson Thomas, and Joel
McNeeley. The last is the only previous winner, and he has the most big-name
show, so I’m betting on him.
Sherlock lost last year and the competition is even tougher, so it probably
doesn’t have much of a chance. Robert Duncan (Missing) has been nominated for
an emmy once before, but his music isn’t anything too new and he isn’t a big
name. Theodore Shapiro (Game Change) is also basically nobody. Michael Giaccino
(Prep Vs. Landing 4) is the biggest name in the category and the academy might
give him the award for that, but his score is fairly rote, and probably only
about ten minutes long. Javier Navarrete’s score for Hemingway & Gellhorn
is nice and the movie is long and heavily scored, plus he was nominated for an
Oscar so he’s something of a name. But John Debney went from being an acclaimed
TV musician who won three emmys to an acclaimed movie musician with an Oscar
nomination, and now that he’s back he has a very good chance of winning. Plus
the music’s good and there’s a lot of it.
Series Score: Smash
Trevor Morris wasn’t nominated for Borgias’ whole-episode score last year,
although he won for it’s opening theme. He’s certainly a contender considering
how much the Academy likes him, but his lack of nomination last year seems to
lessen his chances. John Lunn’s music for Downton Abbey also wasn’t nominated
last year in the seemingly easier-to-get-nominated-in miniseries categories,
which also seems to lessen its chances. Pan Am won’t win because the music
isn’t anything too special and it got cancelled. Jeff Richmond won’t win for his great, jazzy
score for 30 Rock, It’s a comedy not known particularly for its music and it
hasn’t won an Emmy in three years. Which leaves Smash, the obvious eventual
winner because it’s a show that revolves around its original songs.
Prosthetic Makeup: Walking Dead
Once Upon A Time basically just has a bunch of fake noses on dwarves, and
Boardwalk Empire has more CGI than makeup, just some injuries, so both those
shows are pprobably out. Game of Thrones has some stunning prosthetics for
White Walkers, some kind of otherworldly creature with white hair and grey
skin… really stunning, they certainly have a chance. American Horror Story used
lots of prosthetics throughout its run to create the, um, horrific creatures,
in the, uh, story. But Walking Dead will probably triumph for the second year
in a row for its stunning zombie makeup.
Miniseries makeup: Hatfields & McCoys
Eryn Mekash (AHS) is a bridesmaid, I’m gonna guess Hatfields over Hemingway for
the dirty faces and the large cast.
Multicam Makeup: SNL
Dancing With The Stars won this once a couple years ago, but it’s lost a bunch
since and there’s no especially special makeup in it. Neither the Hot In
Cleveland or Victorious episodes have any especially noticeable makeup in them
either. How I Met Your Mother is a definite dark horse for its episode which
has multiple flashbacks and flashforwards to the characters in different
possible universes, usually with different makeup. But the winner will probably
be SNL, again, for all its celebrity makeup done live (read: very, very
Singlecam Makeup: Game of Thrones
No first-time nominees in this category, but no winners, either, so there’s not
much to go on but the makeup itself. The episode of The Middle seems to be a
filler nomination, there’s no real special makeup involved in the ep. The Mad
Men ep. has one scene in which the lighting on the makeup creates a beautiful
effect, but I think that’s more lighting than makeup. Boardwalk Empire won last
year, and could win again, but the makeup team has changed since last year and
the episode involves no real makeup tricks, so it seems unlikely. If Glee had
submitted the voice-swapping ep, I think it would have won, but it didn’t so I
think it won’t. That leaves Game of Thrones, a big epic with lots of faces to
cover in makeup and special effects. I think it has the best chance.
Main Title Design: New Girl
Strike Back and Great Expectation’s
titles were done by the same group, and both are similarly pretty, but nothing
special or new. And Magic City’s opening is too long, boring, and not even that
well-made. Both New Girl and American Horror Story have excellent openings, at
complete opposite sides of the spectrum. New Girls’ is light and cartoony,
funny and cute. It’s by far the shortest of the bunch, which could hurt it, but
it stands out as comedy amidst the drama. AHS’, on the other hand, is
frightening and spooky, setting the tone for a horror series perfectly. New
Girl is the more iconic of the two, but AHS is perhaps the better title
sequence… But I say New Girl wins.
Variety Special Lighting: Grammy Awards
There are plenty of fine nominees here, but since 2004, every year Robert A. Dickinson
has been nominated for the Grammy Awards, he’s won for the Grammy Awards. So
yeah, that’ll probably happen.
Variety Series Lighting: So You Think You Can Dance.
Simon Miles (Dancing With The Stars) is a Bridesmaid. SNL hasn’t won before,
and The Voice’s guy is a first-timer. American Idol won in 2009 but has been
nominated a lot more with no other wins.
That leaves last year’s winner, So You Think You Can Dance, to repeat.
Original Interactive Media (webshows): Dirty Work
What’s Talking is an awful, bland “talk show” about the internet. It’s really
bad, hopefully it won’t win. HashTag Killer is a fake-social-network thing,
it’s a good idea with good writing but problems with the execution; too much
emphasis on making it like a “real” social network and not enough on making it
fun. Dirty Work is the most fleshed out by far, it’s a 12-minute webseries with
stars like what’s-her-name from 24, but with silly little things like “texts”
popping up in the corner. It’s not that funny, but it’s alright.
Spinoff Interactive Media: Top Chef: Last Chance Kitchen
The Conan Obrien thing is just an app with clips from his show, nothing
special. There’s an ipad app where you can watch Game of Thrones and see other
special things like maps of the land, concept art, actors… But my favorite is Top Chef: Last Chance
Kitchen, in which chefs eliminated from the show get to battle head-on-head,
the winner at the end gets to return to the show. I think it’s a great idea,
and it was very well executed.
Miniseries Hairstyling: Hatfields & McCoys
Hemingway & Gellhorn has the smallest hairstyling team… and Hatfields &
McCoys has lots of beards, so… let’s go with that.
Multicam Hairstyling: Dancing With The Stars
The Emmys love Mary Guerrero, and there’s not much competition at all in this
category, so I’ll just give it to her.
Singlecam Hairstlying: Mad Men
AKA, The One Award Other Than Drama Series Mad Men Wins Every Time.
Reality Editing: Top Chef
James Smith (Survivor) is a Bridesmaid. Amazing Race’s days
of winning this award are long gone. Deadliest Catch won last year, but didn’t
get a reality series nomination this year, which could hurt it. But the Top
Chef episode submitted got great reviews (the Project Runway did not), so I’m
going to go with that winning.
Nonfic Editing: George Harrison: Living In The Material World
Three of the nominated editors are first-time
nominees who got a lucky nomination in a weak field. The other two are And
Netley for Frozen Planet, who probably won’t win because he didn’t for the superior
Planet Earth, and David Tedeschi for George Harrison, who wins by default.
Short-form / variety editing: Louis C.K. Live At The Beacon Theatre
Let’s see, there’s that silly Billy Crystal Oscars montage where he’s in a
bunch of famous movies, edited by Not Billy Crystal, there’s a Colbert
interview about Occupy Wall Street edited by Not Steven Colbert, there’s a
brilliant Stewart segment about TV regulation edited by Not John Steward,
there’s a special episode of Extreme Makeover: Home Edition edited by Not
Whoever Hosts That Show, there’s the Rock And Roll Hall Of Fame Induction
Ceremony edited by Not Rock Stars, and there’s Louis CK, Live At The Beacon
Theatre, edited by Louis CK. So that wins by default.
Miniseries Editing: Game Change
Man, lots of newcomers here! In fact, everyone except the nominee for Sherlock,
who was nominated last year for… Sherlock. So it’s just guesswork, and I guess
Game Change because it’s the frontrunner to win the overall miniseries
Multicam Comedy Editing: Two and a Half Men
This category was split into two (single and multi cam) this year. Chakos (BBT)
is a Bridesmaid. Susan Federman (HIMYM) won last year but for a much more
editing-intensive episode. Bates (2 Broke Girls) and Dashnaw (Hot In Cleveland)
are both first-time nominees. Joe Bella (2.5 Men) won twice before the
categories were combined, I think he’ll resume his streak.
Singlecam comedy editing: Curb your Enthusiasm
Modern Family is nominated twice in this category, it won in its first season but
lost in its second, the third season seems unlikely to resume winning. 30 Rock
(also nominated twice) hasn’t won an emmy in three years, that won’t change.
That leaves somewhat-of-a-bridesmaid Steven Rasch (also nominated for Modern
Family this year) to win for Curb your Enthusiasm. While this is certainly
unlikely given that Curb hasn’t won an emmy since 2003, the submitted episode
is very strong and might break Curb’s losing streak.
Singlecam Drama Editing: Homeland
Breaking Bad’s editing is excellent, but it could split
votes having two little-known editors in one category; neither automatically
attracts the bulk of voting. Downton Abbey lost the equivalent category as a
miniseries so won’t win here. Mad Men’s episode has great editing and could
win, but Mad Men usually doesn’t win any technical categories; except of course
Hairstyling. That leaves Homeland, which fits with the demographic that wins
this category anyway: Critically-acclaimed thriller/action show.
Miniseries Costumes: Hemingway & Gellhorn
There are certainly some deserving nominees in this
category, but Ruth Myers (Hemingway & Gellhorn) is a two-time Oscar nominee
who won her previous Emmy nom, directing a period piece. No competition, it’s
Series Costumes: The Borgias
And here’s another easy win for an Oscar winner, Gabriella Pescucci for The
Borgias. In terms of fame she’s streets ahead of the other nominees, add to
which it’s a period piece with elaborate costumes and we have a repeat winner.
Commercial: Best Job
Interestingly we only have two funny commercials (which usually win) this year,
and they’re both for the same product: VW’s Superbowl ad with the dog and
another VW ad to build anticipation for that ad. The sequel to the Chrystler ad
that won an emmy a few years back is here, but it’s not as strong as the
original. There’s a pretty rote and boring Target ad without much of a chance…
the VW Superbowl ad has a good chance of winning but I think votes could be
split between the two… so considering how fresh the Olympics are in the minds
of voters, I’ll go with the charming, if sexist, P&G ad, The Best Job In
The World (spoiler: it’s being a mother. Not a parent, a mother… yeah, very
forward-thinking there, P&G.) It’s kind of a tossup because of the weak
Reality Cinematography: Deadliest Catch
These are usually just credited to “Cinematography Team”, meaning I can’t use
many of the methods I use in other categories. Amazing Race won in 2005 and
2006, but hasn’t won since and probably won’t repeat for the weak seasons this
year. Project Runway hasn’t won before and won’t start now, neither will Top
Chef. Survivor could win, but it had a disappointing season. Deadliest Catch
won last year, but it also won Reality Program and a bunch of other awards it’s
not even nominated for this year, which lessens its chances; however it’s a
weak category so I think it’ll repeat.
Nonfiction Cinematography: No Reservations
This isn’t gonna go to Prohibition or George Harrison, which have basically no
traveling or adventure scenes, which is what wins big in cinematography. It
could go to Whale Wars or Frozen Planet, but I think Zach Zamboni (No
Reservations), which has won twice in a row, will repeat again. Also, WHO NAMES
THEIR KID ZACH ZAMBONI???
Miniseries Cinematography: Game Change
Ulf Brantas (Treasure Island) and Fabian Wagner (Sherlock) are first-time
nominees in not-particularly-showy shows. Great Expectations didn’t get many
other nominations and so has less chance of a win here. Hemingway &
Gellhorn is certainly more broad and sweeping, but I think Game Change will win
for its incorporating real-life footage and still keeping camerawork
Single-cam Cinematography: Boardwalk Empire
Slovis (Breaking Bad) is a bridesmaid. Glee isn’t showy enough to win Cinematography. Pan Am got canceled, which negates its
chances. Mad Men loses when it gets Cinematography noms. That leaves Boardwalk
Empire, which won the cinematographer’s guild awards (a precursor) too.
Multicam Cinematography: Two and a Half Men
This only separated with the category above it last year, and that year Two and
a Half Men won. The field is weak again: All the losers from last year plus Two
Broke Girls, which could win for its pilot if the Academy is just dying to
award racism over sexism. But I say 2.5 Men repeats.
Stacey Tookey (SYTYCD) has been nominated twice before, and she probably won’t
win this time as her reel is pretty weak. Then again, she’s kind of Mia
Michaels- lite, and since Michaels is gone she could fill that slot.
Christopher Scott’s SYTYCD reel is a lot of fun, but it’s not particularly
groundbreaking. Spencer Liff does an excellent job and could certainly win, but
I’m betting the Academy doesn’t give the Emmy to SYTYCD as usual but instead
gives it to Smash; a show with excellent choreography that’s also the
super-rare single-camera hit with choreography in it. I bet choreographers will
want to support the show.
Miniseries Casting: Hatfields & McCoys
I have no idea what even factors into choosing this award. Uh, let’s see…
Looking at past nominees, I don’t see a single one set in the present, so let’s
eliminated Sherlock, Game Change, and American Horror Story, which are set in
the present or near-present. And Five has segments set in the present too. That
leaves only Hatfields & McCoys! Easy (if probably wrong)!
Drama Casting: Homeland
This hasn’t gone to a show twice since 2003, so we can eliminate past winners
Boardwalk Empire and Mad Men. The Good Wife lost twice in a row in the past,
perhaps it’ll finally prevail but I think it’s more likely some early-on
Bridesmaid-effect developing. Game of Thrones could win for its sweeping cast,
Homeland could win because their caster has won more in this category than
anyone else, Downton Abbey could win for all its acting-category nominations. I’m
probably cynical, but I’m going with Homeland.
Comedy Casting: Veep
Last year’s winner Glee didn’t even get nominated, so no chance of a repeat
there. Modern Family won, then lost, which as a pattern tends to indicate future
losing. The Big C didn’t get a single other nomination, which basically means
it’s out. Nurse Jackie got some
nominations for guest acting and could eke out a win, but it’s not really on
the radar much and it’s lost in the past so it’s probably out. New Girl only
really has five people and the occasional guest-star in it, although if it DOES
win it means Deschanell has a really good shot at a lead actress Emmy. Girls
and Veep have the same casting director, which is an indicator that the Emmys
like her; as is the fact that she won her previous emmy bid. Veep has the
larger ensemble cast, so let’s go with that one.
Variety Art Direction: 84th Oscars
Two-time Oscar winner John Myhre is nominated for his competently-designed
Oscars stage, and he has a very good chance of winning (due to the two Oscars
mentioned above, and a one-for-one Emmy record). The Grammy-set and Tony-set guys havn’t won
in a while, and Eugene Lee (SNL) is a Bridesmaid. The only real competition
Myhre would have is from the designer of the rotating The Voice chairs, who’s a
first-timer but could still win for such a distinctive piece of design. But I
think Myhre will still win on star-power alone.
Miniseries Art Direction: Hemingway & Gellhorn
The nominees for Sherlock, Hatfields & McCoys, and Great Expectations are
all first-time nominees who probably won’t win. Beth Rubino (AHS) is a two-time
Oscar nominee with a lot of set
decoration featured in the submitted episode (she basically made a whole
house). But another episode of the same show is also submitted, which could
split votes, so I think the winner will be Oscar-nominee Geoffrey Kirkland for
Hemingway & Gellhorn, which is long, sweeping, and epic, and so probably
has plenty of art direction.
Single camera Art Direction: Game of Thrones
Mad Men has been nominated before without wins, it won’t break its streak. Dave
Blass (Justified) is a first-time nominee, unlikely to win. Donal Woods is a
Bridesmaid. Bill Groom could win for Boardwalk Empire,but I think more likely
is Oscar-nominee Gemma Jackson winning for the sweeping epic Game of Thrones,
which has all kinds of amazing art direction; castles and such.
Multicamera Art Direction: Mike and Molly
Hell’s Kitchen is a Bridesmaid. HIMYM won for four straight years then stopped
winning, Glenda Rovello (2 Broke Girls) won for three straight years then
stopped winning. 30 Rock hasn’t won an Emmy in three years and won’t start now.
That leaves Mike and Molly, which lost for its pilot, but eh, it’s a weak year
for the category. If it’s not M&M, though, it’ll be 2 Broke Girls.
Nonfiction Writing: Prohibition
Anthony Bourdain gets nominated here but never wins., and Christine Ferraro
(Sesame Street Special) is a first-timer lucky to be nominated. Other than
that, it’s basically a tossup! Geoffrey C. Ward (Prohibition) has won in this
category the last two times he was nominated, Peter Jones won last time he was
nominated, and Barak Goodman won two out of the three emmys he’s been nominated
for (never in this category), PLUS he has an Oscar nomination. I’m betting on
Prohibition because it has two other nominations to the others’ zip.
Nonfiction Direction: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Usually I would single out Martin Scorsese as the obvious winner, but he’s been
nominated in this category many times before without a win. Curb your
Enthusiasm co-creator Robert Weide is nominated for his Woody Allen biography,
which might get a win, but I think Joe Berlinger will win for his
Oscar-nominated Paradise Lost 3, the prequels to which both won emmys. It’s his
first time nominated for directing, but I say he wins (although there’s a
chance Scorsese wins after all; as he’s nominated for a standalone HBO doc and
not an ep. of American masters)
Documentary Film: Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
It’s always the HBO film that wins this category. Plus Paradise Lost 3 got an
Special-class short-format nonfiction: DGA Moments In Time
Let’s see… There’s an online Q&A with Tina Fey, funny but nothing special,
there’s some History-channel thing about being proud of our veterans (which
looks corny and overwrought, it might win but I hope it doesn’t). There’s
Bravo’s Last Chance Kitchen, which I predicted would win above, but in a weaker
category, it could win here too though. There’s last year’s winner Jay Leno’s
Garage which is kind of annoying and hopefully doesn’t repeat. My personal
favorite, and hopefully the winner, is an interesting and well-made documentary
on the history of the DGA, with narration from famous directors.
Nonfiction Special: George Harrison Living In The Material World
This award is almost never won without at least one other nomination, which
eliminates Bobby Fischer Against The World, Gloria: In Her Own Words, and 6
Days To Air: The Making Of South Park. That leaves two music docs; Paul Simon
Under African Skies, and George Harrison Living In The Material World. It’s a
very tight race and either one could easily win, but the Harrison one got more
emmy nominations and has Scorsese directing it. I think it wins by a hair.
Nonfiction Series: The Weight Of The Nation
American Masters had a fine but not incredible year, and it hasn’t won in a
couple years so probably won’t now. No Reservations has gone four years without
a win in this category. Inside The Actor’s Studio is the definition of a
Bridesmaid in this category: Twelve straight nominations without a win. Frozen
Planet might win as Planet Earth did, but without more wins (I haven’t
predicted a single one up above) it doesn’t have a good chance. I think HBO
Documentary series The Weight Of The Nation wins for being topical, well-made,
and on HBO.
Reality Host: Betty White
The big shock in this category was that four-time winner Jeff Probst, who has
won every year since the category began, was not even nominated. It’s really
any man’s race: Tom Bergeron and Ryan Seacrest don’t have very big parts on
their respective shows, but they have been nominated every year in this
category from the beginning. The Amazing Race is Emmy’s favorite Reality show
but Phil Keoghan has never won… until, perhaps, now? Cat Deeley is a viewer
favorite who could certainly eke out a win… but Betty White is a known entity
who has won emmys in the past, and will now probably win one more.
Reality-Competition Program: Top Chef
Up until 2010, this was the Amazing Race Award, going to that show and that
show only constantly. But then in 2010 Top Chef snagged the award, and now it’s
an at least slightly more open race (despite Amazing Race winning in
2011). The general pattern seems to be
Amazing Race wins unless Top Chef stops it, which I think Top Chef will this
year. In 2011, the winning Amazing Race episode got a B on the AV Club, the Top
Chef episode got a B+. This year, the submitted Amazing Race episode got a B,
and the Top Chef episode got an A. No qualifier. I think Top Chef wins on
Reality Program: Jamie Oliver’s Food Revolution
No competition here! Well, yes, there is competition between the nominees, just
not… never mind. Undercover Boss doesn’t have a chance in the world, for
starters. Despite some rumors to the contrary, Antiques Roadshow (Ten
nominations, no wins) doesn’t either. Shark Tank was this year’s surprise big
ratings hit that also got critical acclaim, and it could certainly win but it’s
a first-time nominee without an established name, so it’s a longshot.
Mythbusters is on its fourth nom without a win, I doubt this’ll be its
breakthrough. Who Do You Think You Are, in which celebrities research their
family trees and inevitably have a surprising discovery, is some fun but this
is it’s first nomination in three years, so I doubt it’ll win. That leaves
Jamie Oliver’s Food Revolution, which has a one-for-one Emmy record and lots of
critical acclaim. Its cancellation and odd timeframe (it was nearly eligible
for last year’s emmys!) will hurt it, but I still think it’ll emerge
Children’s Nonfic Program: It Gets Better
Perpetual winner of this category Linda Ellerbee surprisingly didn’t even get
nominated here, so it’s a fairly open race: Backing the Sesame Street special
is its nomination for the more prestigious Nonfiction Writing award, backing
The Weight Of The Nation For Kids is the equivalent show for adults being
nominated for, and according to me winning, the Nonfiction Series award; and
backing It Gets Better is loads and loads and loads of publicity. I think the
third wins on name alone, although again, it’s a very, very open race.
Children’s Program: Wizards of Waverly Place
Annoyingly, the Emmys didn’t release the submitted episodes this year, so it’s
hard to know exactly what they’re going by when judging this. But the obvious
standout is past winner, and two-time past winner if you count the TV Movie,
Wizards of Waverly Place for its final season. It might also be Victorious,
which has two other nominations this year. Icarly has many noms and no wins,
Good Luck Charlie is a first-time nominee, and Degrassi didn’t win for last
year’s stronger season.
Voice-Over Performance: Maurice LaMarche
A pretty strong category. Brenda Strong could win for Desperate Housewives’
final season, although she lost last year and the show has only one other
nomination (the late Kathryn Joosten, who’s won Emmys for the show in the
past). Dan Povenmire, voice of Doctor Doofenshmirtz in Phineas and Ferb and
also co-creator of that show, could have a chance but he’s been nominated in
other categories without wins for that show. Rob Riggle gets the obligatory
Prep & Landing nom, but since the show wasn’t nominated for Animated
Program, that lessens its chances considerably. Hank Azaria’s submitted episode
is just lame, and it’s lame he got a nomination: he has basically no part in
the episode whatsoever. Kirsten Wiig is the biggest “name” in this category and
could win on name recognition alone, but last year’s winner Maurice LaMarche has
a STUNNING showcase episode of Futurama, in which he voices more than six
totally unique characters. He probably does about half the voicework in the
episode. It’s amazing, and he’ll
hopefully win again for it.
Short-form Animated Program: Robot Chicken
This is a fairly new category, so it can be hard to know what’s going to win.
Adventure Time’s submission this year isn’t that strong, and it hasn’t won in
the past, so it’s probably out. Phineas and Ferb has more nominations this year
than ever before, but it’s still never won an Emmy, thus it’s untested
territory and risky to bet for. Mad (the TV show) hasn’t been nominated before,
and also isn’t very good. The Regular Show has a pretty good submission, but
again, it lost on its past single nomination, so it’s risky to bet for. That
leaves Robot Chicken to triumph for its epic 100th episode Fight
Club Paradise, more than half of which is just a long, funny fight scene.
Animated Program: The Simpsons
This is American Dad’s second nom, and its first since 2009. It’s a good show,
and the episode’s fine, but it’s not an Emmy darling. The Penguins of
Madagascar is cute and funny, but it’s a little kid’s show telling simple
little kid jokes. For something like this to win it would have to match in
quality Prep and Landing, and it’s no Prep and Landing. Bob’s Burgers submitted
a great, great episode and it’s a hilarious show, but it’s also a first-time
nominee and thus untested. But look for it to upset-win. The submitted Futurama
episode has a lot to live up to, and it’s certainly very, very funny and good,
but it’s not as good as last year’s winner The Late Phillip J. Fry. That leaves
the best Simpsons episode in ages, Holidays of Future Passed, a hilarious and
smart episode that would fit in with the simpsons’ all-time best.
Variety Special Writing: Louis CK Live at the Beacon Theater
The Tonys have won this category the last two years in a row, and might win
again, but Louis CK has been a continually rising talent, and despite losing
last year for Hilarious, Live at the Beacon had an even bigger effect on the
comedy landscape or whatever, so I think It’ll win.
Variety Series Writing: The Colbert Report
If the past four years repeat themselves and the existing pattern (Colbert
Stewart Colbert Stewart) repeats, The Colbert Report will win this year. And
while I do predict that will happen, I also think it wouldn’t be wise to
discount Portlandia, much more of a Variety show in the vein of SNL than the
funny-news type shows nominated. It’s gotten a lot of “buzz” and I think it
could pull a surprise win.
Variety Special Directing: Louis C.K. Live from the Beacon Theatre
The Oscars this year were fine but not good enough to win emmys, the Grammys
were also just fine, not great, and the Tonys were very good but not as good as
2010 when they won. That leaves some kind of “Nutcracker Special” from PBS that
I REALLY hope doesn’t win, and Louis CK Live from the Beacon again! WOO!
Variety Series Directing: Saturday Night Live
*sigh*… Don Roy King’s gonna win for
SNL again, isn’t he? I don’t like SNL’s direction very much, but yeah, he’s
gonna win. I hope he doesn’t, though… Do something interesting, Academy! Give
it to Portlandia or Colbert or something.
“Special Class Short Format Live Action Entertainment”: Web Therapy
Read: webseries. We have the annoying
and not-funny Daily Show Correspondents Explain, which won last year in a much
weaker field and which I really hope doesn’t win again, we have April and
Andy’s Road Trip, which isn’t that funny compared to better stuff on Parks
& Rec, we have the 30 Rock webseries’, which I must admit are very funny
and well-made and are the best of the ones that tie in with other programs, but
which lost last year and thus won’t win this year. Then we have the far
superior Children’s Hospital, the loopy ten-minute TV show on Adult Swim,
brilliant and weird, and the also very good Web Therapy with Lisa Kudrow, which
hopefully will win (it’s not quite as good as CH but it has a better shot of
winning and I really don’t want the friggin’ daily show thing to win again)
Special Class Programs: 65th Tonys
Read: Award shows, mostly. This year, there’s the Oscars (meh), the Golden
Globes (meh), the Grammys (meh), and the Tonys (only-slightly-better-than-meh),
along with some silly Great Performances concert thing, aaaaand LOUIS CK LIVE
AT THE BEACON WOO! While I do hope CK will win here as well, I have a feeling
the Tonys will snag this award from him.
Kennedy Center Honors
Iiiit’s the Kennedy Center Honors Award! Unless
Betty White manages to slip one through (pretty unlikely), it’ll remain that
way. Nothing else has a chance.