Without having seen reviews for several films (including ZD30, Les Mis and Amour) it is trickier to predict this year, but my guess is ZD30 is the favorite for film, director, Amour for FL film and at least one of actor or actress. Chastain a possibility for actress. Actor tricky.
My hope (though I'd vote Trintignant and Washington ahead of him) is that Philip Seymour Hoffman wins best actor (he'd be my third choice). He has never won an award from this group, I question whether they'd go with the fraud that he is supporting. Also, they like their winners to appear, and be normal, so that might hurt Phoenix.
The Master has a shot, and desperately needs a win (PTA could win screenplay), but my sense is that ship has sailed and critics have moved on.
The critics will root for The Master all the way, they love to go against the grain and the bigger budgets by picking the 'cool' film of the season that makes them think. It will definately do well in the acting categories I think.
I am wondering though if someone like Sam Jackson can swoop in out of no where and win the supporting actor prize. His performance and Django was screened for NY critics yesterday so it might be fresh in their minds. That would truely turn the race upside down, would be so awesome.
This group often mirrors or cleaves to Metacritic scores, so to me Les Mis is a question mark. Right now I'd say ZD30, Amour, are the front runners, with Lincoln, Argo, and The Master very much in the mix.
Unfortunately, The Master (which again is one of my favorite films of the year) stopped being the cool film about a week after it was released. It could still win, but had it been released in Dec rather than Sept its chances would have been vastly better. My guess is that ZD30 is now the cool film.
I think "Argo" had the benefit of opening before the biggest contenders. I think that had reviewers watched it after "Lincoln", "Zero Dark Thirty" and even "Life Of Pi", the metacritic score wouldn't be that big. My guess is that ZD30, Amour, Lincoln and maybe The Master have better shots.
The NY announcements come after their morning meeting (their awards dinner is in January), and normally come out sometime around 1 pm ET/10 am PT
BTW - Amour can win best film as well as best foreign language film, Haneke certainly could win director.
My guess - only a guess - is that it and ZD30 will come out with the most wins. However, if either film is divisive, a more consensus title like Lincoln or Argo could thrive (Moneyball fared well in the voting last year). And again The Master could make a come back.
Predictions: Picture: Lincoln (Amour, Argo) Director: Michael Haneke (Spielberg, Anderson) Actor: Daniel Day Lewis (Phoenix, Washington) Actress: Jessica Chastain (Lawrence, Riva) Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman (McConaughey, Murray) Supporting Actress: Helen Hunt (Riva, Hathaway) Screenplay: Moonrise Kingdom (Amour, Silver Linings Playbook) Foreign Film: Amour (Beyond the Hills, Pieta) Cinematography: Life of Pi (The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Hybrid - Beyond the Hills and Pieta aren't opening in NY this year and thus not eligible. I think Kid With the Bike has gotten the best reviews of any FL film to open this year.
Based on history, they are unlikely to go along with Hoffman and Hunt as supporting (they usually ignore the fraudulent). Maybe they go differently this year, but in the past they have refused to go along with this nonsense. Someone always speaks up and objects, which normally sways enough votes away.
Are people aware of how great ZD30 is doing with critics so far? It's at 96 at Metacritic with 7 critics - still early, but a phenomenal reaction. That's better even than The Social Network, way ahead of The Hurt Locker. Even if the rest of the critics are slightly lower, it still could be the best reviewed film of the year, and thus the easy favorite.
I'm curious why most people are downplaying its chances - my guessing it is a favorite is based on evidence and logic from what I can discern, not my own favorable reaction to it.
Any explanation for why people aren't making it the favorite? It seems like the most obvious choice to me - though of course riskier since most of the reviews haven't come out yet.