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Feb 11th 2013, 09:17
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offlineScottferguson
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we're lagging behind last year....

 

Feb 11th 2013, 09:23
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offlineMax 2.0
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Riva won BAFTA as expected. And Jennifer will probably win the Oscar. The other conteder must be happy to attend.
"I don't need to be on top to know I'm worth it, because I'm strong enough to know the truth. I just want it to be hot, because I'm best when I'm in love, and I'm in love with you."
Feb 11th 2013, 09:26
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offlineScottferguson
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If she was expected, why did both the audience and press gasp?

She won it seems because members actually watched her film, and regarded her as the best. My guess is that if Academy members do the same, it will have the same result. That's the remaining question which most likely will determine the outcome. 

 

Feb 11th 2013, 09:29
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offlineMax 2.0
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You are saying she was an upset? She wasn't. Her film did extremly well at BAFTA regarding nominations. SLP winning Adapted Sreenplay, now that was an upset.
"I don't need to be on top to know I'm worth it, because I'm strong enough to know the truth. I just want it to be hot, because I'm best when I'm in love, and I'm in love with you."
Feb 11th 2013, 09:38
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offlineScottferguson
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There is a huge difference b/w being "expected" ( which means most likely/favorite) and being an upset (meaning few people predicted). My sense is that Lawrence was the favorite at BAFTAs, although by a narrower margin than she has been for the Oscar.

Published reports from people who were there again have said that within the press and the audience in the theater, Riva winning was considered a surprise. Trying to diminish the possible importance of Riva's win by saying people thought she was the likely winner I think is whistling past the graveyard.

I thought Lawrence was the most likely winner. And if she had won, I'd be saying her position for winning the Oscar was much stronger than her slight favorite status before. I suspect you would have said the same, even more strongly.   

 

Feb 11th 2013, 09:41
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offlineGustavoCruzESilva
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British folks who BET MONEY on the BAFTAs had Lawrence #1, Chastain #2 and Riva #3.
Feb 11th 2013, 09:48
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BTW - the fact that SLP won adap SP and lost actress looks now as a particularly significant result. It means that they were hardly anti-SLP. They just didn't think Lawrence was as worthy as the writing. Doesn't mean Academy voters will feel the same. But it still is interesting.

 

Feb 11th 2013, 09:53
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offlineMax 2.0
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Quote by Scottferguson
BTW - the fact that SLP won adap SP and lost actress looks now as a particularly significant result. It means that they were hardly anti-SLP. They just didn't think Lawrence was as worthy as the writing. Doesn't mean Academy voters will feel the same. But it still is interesting.


The film still only managed three nominations. There really wasn't support across the board. AMPAS loved SLP and I think that is what will propel Lawrence to her win.
"I don't need to be on top to know I'm worth it, because I'm strong enough to know the truth. I just want it to be hot, because I'm best when I'm in love, and I'm in love with you."
Feb 11th 2013, 09:59
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But what won is multiple times more important than how many nominations something got. It very well may be that many members hadn't watched the film when they did the nominating - but then did for final voting, which led to the SP winning, but not Lawrence.

Both SLP and Amour got enough nominations to indicate Academy interest. They got nominated from the same number of branches. For the Academy, it's a wash - they are on an equal playing field. 

 

Feb 11th 2013, 10:03
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offlineMax 2.0
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SLP still did manage that editing nom. And the four acting nom. That is something people shouldn't ignore. I agree to an extent that they are on equal playing field. And if RIva loses, I doubt it will be because they didn't watch the film.
"I don't need to be on top to know I'm worth it, because I'm strong enough to know the truth. I just want it to be hot, because I'm best when I'm in love, and I'm in love with you."
Feb 11th 2013, 10:08
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Quote by Max200
SLP still did manage that editing nom. And the four acting nom. That is something people shouldn't ignore. I agree to an extent that they are on equal playing field. And if RIva loses, I doubt it will be because they didn't watch the film.

You're correct. SLP has much more support at the Oscars over BAFTA. They'll find a winner somewhere in the four contenders, and it won't be DeNiro, Cooper, or Weaver. 
Feb 11th 2013, 10:21
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Quote by Max200
SLP still did manage that editing nom. And the four acting nom. That is something people shouldn't ignore. I agree to an extent that they are on equal playing field. And if RIva loses, I doubt it will be because they didn't watch the film.



If Riva loses?

She isnt going to win. And, it isnt an equal 'playing field'. Perception is everything.      

The Sunne in Splendour; I prefer my Roses White

Feb 11th 2013, 10:36
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Weird Oscar season for Best Actress.   First, Chastain bests both Lawrence and Riva at the Critics Choice Awards (their winner has always figured in at least the top two contenders at the end of Oscar season), then both Chastain and Lawrence win Golden Globes.   Lawrence then defeats Chastain at SAG, and Riva defeats both Chastain and Lawrence at BAFTA.   Truly an unremarkable year.  I think if the (unnecessary) backlash against ZD30 had not occurred, Chastain would figure more prominently.
Feb 11th 2013, 10:38
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offlinepacinofan
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Though I want Emmanuelle Riva to win the Oscar and think it is possible I still believe Jennifer Lawrence to be the safest bet. "Silver Linings Playbook" has a lot of nominations for it to end up with nothing. Robert DeNiro could possibly win in a scattered field but it does not seem likely. David O. Russell won at the BAFTAs but seems a distant third choice behind "Argo" and "Lincoln" at the Oscars. That leaves Jennifer Lawrence to represent the film. Oscar voters may feel comfortable believing "Amour" will win best foreign language film and vote Lawrence to give "SLP" something.
Feb 11th 2013, 10:39
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offlineJunk
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Whoever created this thread should have included a POLL!!