"The King's Speech" ruled so fiercely at BAFTA, sweeping up seven awards, that even Geoffrey Rush went along for the ride, squashing Oscars frontrunner Christian Bale ("The Fighter"). And Helena Bonham Carter beat Amy Adams ("The Fighter"), who, pundits say, has a stronger shot at winning the Oscar than Carter. (Oscar faves Melissa Leo and Hailee Steinfeld weren't nominated.) But maybe that's just because they're subjects of the royal realm themselves: Carter is British, Rush is an Aussie.
See Gold Derby's full report on the BAFTA winners here.
BAFTA results matter a lot when predicting the Oscars because the two awards share many voters. About 500 BAFTA members also belong to the 5,800-member Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences.
However, there are notable differences in the two awards' voting processes. For example, all Oscar voters can decide some crafts categories that are restricted by peer group at BAFTA. But the overall similarities often lead to BAFTA tattling on Oscar results.
Last year award pundits were shocked when "The Hurt Locker" won Best Picture at BAFTA over "Avatar," "An Education," "Precious" and "Up in the Air." Afterward, it was widely regarded as the inevitable Oscar champ. In recent years, BAFTA has foretold Oscar upsets by Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose") and Tilda Swinton ("Michael Clayton").
"The King's Speech" emerged from BAFTA looking like it will reign as Best Picture at the Oscars, but it did not go on a royal rampage. What's curious is the fact that "King's Speech" lost seven BAFTA races, some of them key.
● David Fincher ("The Social Network") beat Tom Hooper ("The King's Speech") for Best Director. That's fascinating considering Hooper recently won the Directors Guild of America trophy in the U.S., which usually means the Oscar is next. Fincher's victory here reinforces the belief of most Gold Derby pundits who predict the top two Oscars will split – "The King's Speech" for Best Picture and Fincher for Best Director. Or else Fincher's BAFTA win might even suggest that "The Social Network" has better odds of winning the top Oscar for Best Picture than pundits believe.
● It's not so surprising that "King's Speech" lost the film-editing award to "Social Network." The editing of "King's Speech" isn't that notable. What's surprising is that "Social Network" beat Oscar front-runners "Inception" and "Black Swan." Just like Best Director, the award for Best Editing at the Oscars is considered to be a harbinger.
● "The King's Speech" lost Best Production Design to "Inception." Historical dramas starring castles and blue bloods often win this race though last year's BAFTA and Oscar champ was "Avatar."
● Historic period dramas usually win costume awards, too, but "King's Speech" lost to "Alice in Wonderland," which, granted, has fantastically flamboyant costumes with historic allusions designed by BAFTA darling Colleen Atwood.
● No surprises: "King's Speech" lost Best Sound to "Inception," Best Makeup to "Alice in Wonderland," and Best Cinematography to "True Grit."
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See contenders' momentum in easy-to-read graphs here. Click links on left side of that page to see more categories. Click here to see the racetrack odds generated when the Experts' predix are combined.
Jonathan was our top User at predicting the Golden Globe film nominations. He scored a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery.
Christian aced the winners of the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn., scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight."
Cinemateo21 tied with one other User (dottardi) at 34% of the winners of the National Board of Review awards. However, he wagered his points strategically and scored three times as many to win the contest. Both are to be commended as only three of our editors got even one winner correct while our Experts were shut out entirely.
Likewise, Ryan Fernand tied with RobertPius at 67% of the winners of the New York Film Critics Circle but won on points. His margin of victory in that tally was closer (about 30% difference) but highlights how important it is where you place your Super (500 points) and Big (200) bets.
All of them win a $100 Amazon gift certificate as do Buddy (67% of Globe TV noms), me123 (78% of SAG TV noms) and trebor76 (80% of Grammy noms).
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