After five previous losses, #Steve Carell# will finally win his first Emmy Award for his last season on "The Office," according to early predictions by Gold Derby's editors and site users making forecasts immediately after nominations were unveiled.
One hundred percent of Gold Derby's editors and 81% of site users say Carell will triumph on Sept. 18. Only 12% of site users believe last year's champ Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory") will repeat and only 4% say past victor Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock") will rebound.
So far, editors and users disagree on only two races out of 20. Editors pick Elisabeth Moss ("Mad Men") to win Best Drama Actress, while site users back #Julianna Margulies# ("The Good Wife"). Editors say "Deadliest Catch" will prevail as Best Reality Program; users opt for past winner "Kathy Griffin: My Life on the D-List."
The forecast of Moss is significant because "Mad Men" -- which has won Best Drama Series three years in a row -- has never claimed an acting Emmy. Now it looks like it might win two, including Best Drama Actor, since editors and users agree that Jon Hamm will finally triumph. Both pundit groups pick "Mad Men" to win for a fourth time, which has been accomplished in the past only by three other dramas: "The West Wing," "L.A. Law" and "Hill Street Blues."
Editors and site users also agree on these categories below and more. See full breakdown here.
Best Comedy Series: "Modern Family"
Best Comedy Actress: Laura Linney ("The Big C")
Best Supporting Actor: Ty Burrell ("Modern Family")
Best Supporting Actress: Betty White ("Hot in Cleveland")
Best Drama Series: "Mad Men"
Best Drama Actor: Jon Hamm ("Mad Men")
Best Supporting Drama Actor: John Slattery ("Mad Men")
Best Supporting Drama Actress: Margo Martindale ("Justified")
Earliest Oscars Predictions Ever
Our Oscarologists are busy updating their predictions as they see more and more contenders. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.