If anybody but Steve Carell walks on the Nokia Theatre stage this Sunday to accept the award for Best Comedy Actor, it will go down as one of the biggest upsets in Emmy history. According to our exclusive Gold Derby statistics, he is a lock to win with 1/10 odds and the unanimous support of all our experts and editors. Out of 541 users, he has 519 votes for a whopping 80% of those predictions as well.
Even though "The Office" was voted Best Comedy Series in 2006, its lead star has been skunked five times and now it's probably his last chance to prevail for the role of Michael Scott. This year he has more than sentiment on his side: Carell submitted a strong episode to Emmy judges. "Goodbye, Michael" is emotionally gripping and hilariously funny and it's his farewell from the show, which may help. Sarah Jessica Parker finally won an elusive Emmy for submitting her finale episode of "Sex and the City" in 2004.
Last year's winner Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory") is in second place, but far behind Carell with 25/1 odds and 11% support from our users. He submitted the episode "The Agreement Dissection" and also has good moments on the episode "The Benefactor Factor" entered by his co-star and first-time nominee Johnny Galecki, who has no real shot with 100/1 odds.
The one candidate with lots of momentum within the industry could be Louis C.K. for the FX series "Louie," which he also produces, directs, writes, and edits. He lost his two bids for variety special "Hilarious" (editing and writing) this past weekend at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards. In addition to his acting nod, he is also contending for the comedy series writing award for the episode "Poker/Divorce" this Sunday. He is listed with 100/1 odds, and even with the excellent episode "Bully" will most likely suffer the same fate as other stand-up comedians (Tim Allen, Larry David, Bob Newhart, Paul Reiser, Jerry Seinfeld, and others) who have lost as Best Comedy Actor.
Two-time previous winner Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock") astoundingly submitted his season finale "Respawn" in which he had a short and unmemorable performance. That is the only reason he has seemingly been ruled out of contention with 100/1 odds, because otherwise he is usually a big threat. Also a longshot is Matt LeBlanc, who earned his first nod for the freshman Showtime series "Episodes" after three earlier yet failed bids for "Friends," and has submitted his season finale "Episode Seven."
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Read more about entry and rules here. Make your initial Oscar predictions now. Change them later as often as you wish up until Oscar Day. Below, meet our past winners of recent award prediction contests.
Oscar Nominations: New York state resident Tim Kressner (gufa54) won $1,000 for reaping the highest percentage (78%) when predicting Academy Award noms. Watch our video chat with him here and learn his strategy for making picks. See the leaderboard here. See Kressner's predix here.
Golden Globes (Film): Mario Gomez, a med studen in Mexico, won our contest with the highest percentage of correct picks (86%) and highest point score (2,693). See our video chat with him here. Two other contestants also scored 86%: lulo1989 and eastwest. Tom O'Neil reaped best Experts' score. David Schnelwar had top score among our Editors. See the leaderboard here to see if you made the top tier.
Critics Choice Nominations: Bryce H scored an impressive 83% when sizing up 20 categories. That was one percentage point ahead of our smartest Editor, Daniel Montgomery. Our top Expert was also one of our Editors, Paul Sheehan, who reaped 74%. To see how you performed, check out our leaderboard plus the score section of your account page.
Golden Globe (Film) Nominations: Jonathan was our top User, reaping a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery. Did you made the cut on the leaderboard score breakdown?
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award Winners: Christian aced all rivals, scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight." See leaderboard.