If anybody but Steve Carell walks on the Nokia Theatre stage this Sunday to accept the award for Best Comedy Actor, it will go down as one of the biggest upsets in Emmy history. According to our exclusive Gold Derby statistics, he is a lock to win with 1/10 odds and the unanimous support of all our experts and editors. Out of 541 users, he has 519 votes for a whopping 80% of those predictions as well.-INSERTS:25-
Even though "The Office" was voted Best Comedy Series in 2006, its lead star has been skunked five times and now it's probably his last chance to prevail for the role of Michael Scott. This year he has more than sentiment on his side: Carell submitted a strong episode to Emmy judges. "Goodbye, Michael" is emotionally gripping and hilariously funny and it's his farewell from the show, which may help. Sarah Jessica Parker finally won an elusive Emmy for submitting her finale episode of "Sex and the City" in 2004.
Last year's winner Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory") is in second place, but far behind Carell with 25/1 odds and 11% support from our users. He submitted the episode "The Agreement Dissection" and also has good moments on the episode "The Benefactor Factor" entered by his co-star and first-time nominee Johnny Galecki, who has no real shot with 100/1 odds.
The one candidate with lots of momentum within the industry could be Louis C.K. for the FX series "Louie," which he also produces, directs, writes, and edits. He lost his two bids for variety special "Hilarious" (editing and writing) this past weekend at the Creative Arts Emmy Awards. In addition to his acting nod, he is also contending for the comedy series writing award for the episode "Poker/Divorce" this Sunday. He is listed with 100/1 odds, and even with the excellent episode "Bully" will most likely suffer the same fate as other stand-up comedians (Tim Allen, Larry David, Bob Newhart, Paul Reiser, Jerry Seinfeld, and others) who have lost as Best Comedy Actor.
Two-time previous winner Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock") astoundingly submitted his season finale "Respawn" in which he had a short and unmemorable performance. That is the only reason he has seemingly been ruled out of contention with 100/1 odds, because otherwise he is usually a big threat. Also a longshot is Matt LeBlanc, who earned his first nod for the freshman Showtime series "Episodes" after three earlier yet failed bids for "Friends," and has submitted his season finale "Episode Seven."
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