Based on the Gold Derby Oscarologists' predictions in Best Supporting Actor, the race may have already been decided in Christopher Plummer's ("Beginners") favor. He has 1-to-3 racetracks odds with no other performer even coming close.
Twenty of the Gold Derby Experts think Plummer has it in the bag, including Thelma Adams (Thelmadams.com), Kyle Buchanan (Vulture), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Pete Hammond (Deadline), Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Kevin Lewin (WENN), Guy Lodge (In Contention), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Matt McDaniel (Yahoo Movies), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Kevin Polowy (NextMovie), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), S.T. VanAirsdale (Movieline), Chuck Walton (Fandango), and Gold Derby's Tom O'Neil and Paul Sheehan. The experts' complete Best Supporting Actor predictions can be viewed here.
In "Beginners," Plummer plays a gay widower who comes out of the closet at 75. The 81-year-old actor picked up his first Oscar nomination two years ago for "The Last Station." He has both good reviews and the benefit of playing gay, which recently worked in the lead race for both Sean Penn ("Milk," 2008) and Philip Seymour Hoffman ("Capote," 2005).
Gold Derby editors Chris Beachum, Rob Licuria, Andrew Pickett, and Adam Waldowski agree that Plummer is the unquestionable frontrunner. And a firm majority of 55% of users also stand behind him. See the Editors' full rankings here.
A handful of Experts stray from the norm with Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere) and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today) supporting Max von Sydow ("Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close"). Gold Derby editor Daniel Montgomery also has him out front. The Swedish actor is a year older than Plummer and is also a previous Oscar nominee ("Pelle the Conquerer," 1988). However, as only 2% of users think he can win, he is given 9-to-1 odds.
The full breakdown of Experts, Editors, and Users predictions can be found here.
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