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Golden Globes odds: 'Modern Family,' 'Homeland to win [Video]

By Chris Beachum
Jan 14 2012 07:11 am
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ABOVE: Gold Derby editors Tom O'Neil, Rob Licuria and Chris Beachum duke it out over who'll win the Globes TV races.

When it comes to the television races at the Golden Globe Awards, voters are often very welcoming to freshman shows and small screen newcomers. Since this year's nominee list is filled with rookies once again, that trend should continue with the winners this Sunday night.

The winner last year for Best TV Drama Series was HBO's "Boardwalk Empire," which returns to defend its championship. However, in our exclusive Gold Derby statistics, that show is predicted  to finish in second place (at 27/10) behind Showtime's red hot new program "Homeland," which has 15/8 odds. Three other rookie shows are in contention: HBO's "Game of Thrones" (10/3); FX's "American Horror Story" (6/1); and Starz's "Boss" (50/1).

Claire Danes ("Homeland") has never lost a Golden Globe race in two previous attempts and is far out front in her race for Best TV Drama Actress with 8/15 odds. The winner of this category two years ago, Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife"), is in second place with 5/1 odds. The other three ladies are first-time nominees but have little chance of winning. Mireille Enos ("The Killing") has odds of 12/1; Madeleine Stowe ("Revenge") is at 16/1; and Callie Thorne ("Unnecessary Roughness") trails with 25/1 odds.

For Best TV Drama Actor, two-time comedy winner Kelsey Grammer ("Boss") is in the lead with 12/5 odds. Out of the past 27 years, Globe voters have chosen 26 different men in this category, so last year's winner Steve Buscemi ("Boardwalk Empire") is projected in second place at 27/10. Damian Lewis ("Homeland") follows with odds of 10/3. Three-time Emmy champ Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") has never won a Golden Globe and is at 5/1. The final slot is filled by Jeremy Irons ("The Borgias") with 25/1 odds.

Although it is the two-time reigning Emmy champ, ABC's "Modern Family" has never won a single Globe before. It competes once again for Best TV Comedy Series and is now considered the frontrunner to win with 8/11 odds. First-year Fox hit "New Girl" is next on the predictions chart with 10/3 odds. Another Fox series, "Glee," has won this category two years running but is trailing with just 12/1 odds this time. Two other rookie shows, HBO's "Enlightened" (14/1) and Showtime's "Episodes" (20/1), bring up the rear.

Zooey Deschanel ("New Girl") has incredibly strong 8/15 odds to prevail as this year's Best TV Comedy Actress. Previous Globe winner Laura Dern ("Enlightened") is listed in second place with 15/2 odds. First-time nominee Amy Poehler ("Parks and Recreation") and last year's champ Laura Linney ("The Big C") are tied at 8/1. Tina Fey ("30 Rock") has won this category twice before but only has odds of 33/1 and is in last place.

Matt LeBlanc ("Episodes") is the only man nominated for Best TV Comedy Actor whose show is also nodded, possibly giving him an edge with 3/2 first place odds. Three-time champ Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock") in next up with 10/3 odds. Johnny Galecki ("The Big Bang Theory") is the only first-time Globe nominee competing in this category and has 11/2 odds in a year following a win by his co-star Jim Parsons, who is not nominated. Another previous winner, David Duchovny ("Californication") is in fourth position with 15/2 odds. Perennial nominee Thomas Jane ("Hung") follows at 10/1.

For Best TV Movie/Miniseries, recent PBS Emmy winner "Downton Abbey" should have no trouble picking up a Globe as well. It is favored to win with 4/7 odds. HBO's "Mildred Pierce" should just miss out with 7/2 odds and second place. The PBS British show "The Hour" is next in line with 12/1 odds. HBO's "Cinema Verite" (20/1) and "Too Big to Fail" (25/1) finish up this category.

Just like at the Emmys in September, Kate Winslet ("Mildred Pierce") is way out front with 4/11 odds to win for Best TV Movie/Miniseries Actress. Emmy competitors Diane Lane ("Cinema Verite") and Elizabeth McGovern ("Downton Abbey") trail Winslet with 8/1 odds and 10/1 odds, respectively. Previous Globe nominees Romola Garai ("The Hour") and Emily Watson ("Appropriate Adult") follow in fourth (20/1) and fifth (33/1) place respectively.

It appears to be a very close race for Best TV Movie/Miniseries Actor, with Idris Elba ("Luther") winning with 5/6 odds and Dominic West ("The Hour") just behind with 11/2 odds. Further down the chart are William Hurt ("Too Big to Fail") at 6/1, Bill Nighy ("Page Eight") at 10/1, and Hugh Bonneville ("Downton Abbey") at 12/1.

If Jessica Lange ("American Horror Story") wins as expected for Best TV Supporting Actress, it will be her fifth career Golden Globe Award. She is heavily favored with 8/13 odds. Dame Maggie Smith ("Downton Abbey") could earn a third Globe to follow her recent Emmy Award win, but she trails Lange at 4/1. Even further behind are Emmy nominees Evan Rachel Wood ("Mildred Pierce") at 10/1, Sofia Vergara ("Modern Family") at 16/1, and Kelly Macdonald ("Boardwalk Empire") at 25/1.

In the all-encompasing race for Best TV Supporting Actor, it is very competitive between Emmy champs Peter Dinklage ("Game of Thrones") with 9/10 odds and Guy Pearce ("Mildred Pierce") with 12/5 odds. Trailing in the distance are Eric Stonestreet ("Modern Family") at 9/1, Paul Giamatti ("Too Big to Fail") at 25/1, and Tim Robbins ("Cinema Verite") at 25/1.

 
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