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Does the first full 'Lincoln' trailer boost its Oscar hopes?

By Daniel Montgomery
Sep 13 2012 19:10 pm
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The first full trailer for "Lincoln" was released today after months of anticipation. On Tuesday, a 45-second teaser was released in advance of today's two-and-a-half minute preview, which highlights a barely recognizable Daniel Day-Lewis in the title role and shows brief glimpses of the film's all-star supporting cast, including Sally Field, David Strathairn, Tommy Lee Jones, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and Jared Harris.

Currently, our predictors give the film 4 to 1 odds of winning Best Picture. It would be the second Best Picture winner directed by Steven Spielberg, following "Schindler's List" in 1993. He also won Best Director for that film, and claimed that prize again in 1998 for "Saving Private Ryan," which famously lost the top award to "Shakespeare in Love."

Spielberg has not had as much Oscar success in the intervening years. In 2005, his "Munich" lost all five of its Oscar bids, and last year "War Horse" went away empty-handed despite six nominations. But he has strong 9 to 2 odds of winning his third directing prize this year.

We currently give Day-Lewis field-leading 27 to 20 odds to win Best Actor. It would be his third win in the category – he previously won for "My Left Foot" in 1989 and "There Will Be Blood" in 2007 – but he would be the first actor to win an Oscar for a Spielberg film.

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The screenplay is by famed playwright Tony Kushner, based on the biography "Team of Rivals" by Doris Kearns Goodwin. Kushner is an Emmy, Tony, and Pulitzer Prize winner for his epic "Angels in America," and was Oscar-nominated for co-writing Spielberg's "Munich" with Eric Roth.

Will "Lincoln" restore Spielberg to Oscar supremacy? Or will high expectations once again yield disappointment? Watch the trailer below and decide for yourself.

 
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