The gory and gothic miniseries "American Horror Story" may lead the field with 17 nominations, but it is the political drama "Game Change" that is predicted to win the Emmy Award as Best TV Movie/Miniseries. This is only the second year that long-formers and movies are competing together in this newly combined category.
Jay Roach directed this recreation of the 2008 Presidential campaign when Senator John McCain (Ed Harris) selected Governor Sarah Palin (Julianne Moore) as his running mate. The last time Roach had a political film at the Emmys was in 2008 when he prevailed for "Recount." Both were HBO projects.
Gold Derby has "Game Change" in first place at 27/10 with support from six Experts, seven Editors, and 45% of Users. Among its 12 overall bids, Roach, Harris, Moore, and writer Danny Strong also have strong odds to win their categories as well. The other acting nods went to Woody Harrelson and Sarah Paulson.
FX officials decided to enter "American Horror Story" as a miniseries because its complete storyline of a haunted house in Los Angeles ended after one season. Another reason was that it would fare much better at the Emmys with fewer contenders than the drama races. It is tied for second place at 9/2 with backing by three Experts, two Editors, and 25% of Users. While writing and directing are not among its 17 nominations, the program is expected to win for Jessica Lange as supporting actress. Other acting nominees are Connie Britton, Frances Conroy, and Denis O'Hare.
PBS has "Sherlock: A Scandal in Belgravia," which is tied for second at 9/2 with votes from four Experts, one Editor, and 13% of Users. It received 13 Emmy nods including those for stars Benedict Cumberbatch as Sherlock Holmes and Martin Freeman as Dr. John Watson in a modernized retelling of the famous British sleuth.
The most watched of all the contenders in this race was "Hatfields and McCoys," which was a ratings king for the History Channel. The three-nighter about the legendary Kentucky/West Virgina family feud has 16 Emmy bids, including ones for stars Kevin Costner, Bill Paxton, Tom Berenger, and Mare Winningham. It is in fourth place in the predictions at 15/2 with votes from one Expert, one Editor, and 11% of Users.
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The fifth spot is held down by the BBC America production "Luther," which earned only four nominations. One of those is for star Idris Elba, who was also nominated last year and won the Golden Globe in January for his role as a young British homicide detective. It has 25/1 odds and the support of one Expert, no Editors, and 3% of Users.
In last place at 33/1 is HBO's movie "Hemingway and Gellhorn," which starred nominees Nicole Kidman, Clive Owen, and David Strathairn. The story of the ill-fated romance between Ernest Hemingway and Martha Gellhorn has 15 Emmy bids and drew just 4% of User votes.