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Odds clash over who will win Emmys this weekend

By Chris Beachum
Sep 18 2012 08:34 am
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When it comes to the 2012 Emmy Awards, Gold Derby's Experts are clashing with its Editors and Users in several key categories. The exclusive website odds and statistics predicting the winners for this weekend's ceremony are determined by a scientific mix of these three groups.

The team of 15 Experts, also known as Emmyologists, consists of television journalists from major publications and websites: Robert Bianco (USA Today), Debra Birnbaum (TV Guide), Lynn Elber (Associated Press), Maria Elena Fernandez (Newsweek Daily Beast), Maggie Furlong (Huffington Post), Elena Howe (L.A. Times), John Kubicek (Buddy TV), Daniel Manu (TV Without Pity), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby), Rick Porter (Zap2It), Matt Roush (TV Guide), Mo Ryan (HuffPo TV), Jill Serjeant (Reuters), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), and Ken Tucker (Entertainment Weekly).  Click here to see Emmy prediction rankings in any category by the Experts.

The 10 Editors of Gold Derby are Chris Beachum, Marcus Dixon, Darrin Dortch, Rob Licuria, Daniel Montgomery, Matt Noble, O'Neil, Andrew Pickett, David Schnelwar, and Sheehan. You can click here to see Emmy prediction rankings in any category by the Editors.

A big battle among these pundits is the one for Best Drama Series with four shows garnering significant results. Reigning four-time champ "Mad Men" is the overall leader at 21/10 with votes from five Experts (Birnbaum, Kubicek, Manu, O'Neil, Ryan) three Editors (Dortch, O'Neil, Pickett), and 38% of Users (made up of the many members and guests visiting Gold Derby). In a very close second place at 13/5 is "Breaking Bad" with support from six Experts (Elber, Fernandez, Howe, Porter, Sheehan, Tucker), two Editors (Noble, Sheehan), and 24% of Users. Just behind in third is "Downton Abbey," which has just one Expert vote (Roush), five Editors (Beachum, Dixon, Licuria, Montgomery, Schnelwar), and 18% of Users. Even "Homeland" in fourth position has three Experts (Bianco, Furlong, Serjeant) and 12% of Users supporting it.

Both of the lead races appear to be out of reach. Three-time winner Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") is a solid 5/6 favorite over Damian Lewis ("Homeland") at 4/1 for Best Drama Actor. Cranston has votes from 11 Experts, seven Editors, and 57% of Users. An even stronger pick is Claire Danes ("Homeland") at 8/15 with support from 14 Experts, 10 Editors, and 62% of Users over last year's champ Julianna Margulies ("The Good Wife") at 6/1 for Best Drama Actress.

Giancarlo Esposito ("Breaking Bad") also seems to have a clear 11/10 edge over Jared Harris ("Mad Men") at 10/3 for Best Drama Supporting Actor. He is predicted by 10 Experts, six Editors, and 45% of Users. Either man would be a first-time Emmy winner. On the other hand, the race for Best Drama Supporting Actress is a tougher call between past champ Maggie Smith ("Downton Abbey") at 8/5 and Christina Hendricks ("Mad Men") at 19/10. Smith has votes from nine Experts (Bianco, Elber, Fernandez, Howe, Kubicek, O'Neil, Porter, Roush, Ryan), two Editors (O'Neil, Schnelwar), and 38% of Users. Hendricks is supported by five Experts (Birnbaum, Furlong, Manu, Serjeant, Tucker), four Editors (Beachum, Dixon, Noble, Pickett), and 36% of Users.

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Two-time champ "Modern Family" is a major favorite at 8/15 as Best Comedy Series with 14 of 15 Experts, all 10 Editors, and 62% of Users predicting it to prevail again. Furlong is the only Expert to go against the grain with her pick of "Girls."

The same can not be said of any of the comedic acting races where all appear to be very competitive. In the Best Comedy Actor category, two men are at the top of the field. Louis C.K. ("Louie"), who earned seven Emmy nods this year, has a slim 5/4 lead over two-time reigning winner Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory"). C.K. is supported by 10 Experts (Furlong, Howe, Kubicek, Manu, O'Neil, Porter, Roush, Serjeant, Sheehan, Tucker), five Editors (Dortch, Montgomery, O'Neil, Schnelwar, Sheehan), and 34% of Users. Parsons is predicted by five Experts (Bianco, Birnbaum, Elber, Fernandez, Ryan), two Editors (Beachum, Licuria), and 37% of Users.

In the overstuffed seven-person competition for Best Comedy Actress, three ladies are the ones garnering all the votes. Two-time winner Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("Veep") has a slight 7/5 lead over Amy Poehler ("Parks and Recreation") at 7/2 and Zooey Deschanel ("New Girl") at 9/2. Louis-Dreyfus is the choice of nine Experts (Bianco, Elber, Furlong, Howe, Manu, O'Neil, Serjeant, Sheehan, Tucker), six Editors (Beachum, Dixon, Licuria, O'Neil, Pickett, Sheehan), and 34% of Users. For Poehler, she has support from three Experts (Fernandez, Kubicek, Porter), two Editors (Dortch, Montgomery), and 30% of Users. Further behind is Deschanel with votes from three Experts (Birnbaum, Roush, Ryan), two Editors (Noble, Schnelwar), and 15% of Users.

One of the largest disconnects between Experts and Editors is with Best Comedy Supporting Actor. In the top position is last year's winner Ty Burrell ("Modern Family") at 12/5 over his co-star Ed O'Neill at 27/10. While eight Experts (Bianco, Elber, Howe, Manu, Porter, Ryan, Serjeant, Tucker) and 21% of Users predict O'Neill, he has no votes from Editors. The first choice for four Editors (Montgomery, Noble, Pickett, Schnelwar), three Experts (Birnbaum, Fernandez, Roush), and 35% of Users is Burrell. Next up are their other co-stars Eric Stonestreet and Jesse Tyler Ferguson tied at 11/2. 2010 champ Stonestreet is picked by two Experts (O'Neil, Sheehan), three Editors (Beachum, O'Neil, Sheehan), and 9% of Users. Ferguson was chosen by no Experts, three Editors (Dixon, Dortch, Licuria), and 18% of Users.

The battle for Best Comedy Supporting Actress appears to be between three women. Reigning champ Julie Bowen ("Modern Family") has a slight 9/4 lead for first place over Kristen Wiig ("Saturday Night Live") at 10/3 and the late Kathryn Joosten ("Desperate Housewives") at 7/2. Bowen is favored by six Experts (Bianco, Elber, Manu, O'Neil, Roush, Ryan), four Editors (Beachum, Montgomery, Noble, O'Neil), and 24% of Users. Wiig is supported by three Experts (Furlong, Howe, Serjeant), and 30% of Users. Joosten has votes from three Experts (Birnbaum, Kubicek, Sheehan), three Editors (Dixon, Pickett, Sheehan), and 18% of Users.

The 64th annual Emmy Awards will be hosted by Jimmy Kimmel on ABC this Sunday, September 23, at 8pm (ET); 5pm (PT).

 
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