Twelve of 18 experts in the survey are evenly split on both films. Six pundits choose "Silver Linings Playbook," director David O. Russell's comedy about a former teacher (Bradley Cooper) who falls in love with a mysterious woman (Jennifer Lawrence) after he checks out of a mental hospital. Picking it to prevail: Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Alex Suskind (Moviefone) and Chuck Walton (Fandango).
"Lincoln" – Steven Spielberg's biopic starring Daniel Day-Lewis as the martyred Civil War president – also has six prognosticators behind it: Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Richard Horgan (MediaBistro/ FishbowlLA), Kevin Polowy (NextMovie), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily) and me.
Three pundits opt for "Les Miserables," a screen adaptation of the long-running Broadway musical by director Tom Hooper ("The King's Speech"): Edward Douglas (Comingsoon), Tariq Khan (Fox News) and Keith Simanton (IMDB).
See here how each expert ranks the contenders in the top races. When the rankings are combined, they translate into these racetrack odds, which give "Silver Linings Playbook" a slight edge (10 to 3) over "Lincoln" (7 to 2) in the Best Picture derby.
Below: the tally of pundits backing each top contender to win the four acting races.
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln" – 10
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master" – 8
Jennifer Lawrence, "The Silver Linings Playbook" – 15
Keira Knightley, "Anna Karenina" – 1
Marion Cotillard, "Rust and Bone" – 1
Naomi Watts, "The Impossible" – 1
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master" – 12
Alan Arkin, "Argo" – 2
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook" – 2
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Django Unchained" – 2
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables" – 8
Amy Adams, "The Master" – 4
Helen Hunt, "The Sessions" – 4
Sally Field, "Lincoln" – 1
Gold Derby presents 4 sets
of Oscar predictions
See contenders' momentum in easy-to-read graphs here. Click links on left side of that page to see more categories. Click here to see the racetrack odds generated when the Experts' predix are combined.
Jonathan was our top User at predicting the Golden Globe film nominations. He scored a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery.
Christian aced the winners of the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn., scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight."
Cinemateo21 tied with one other User (dottardi) at 34% of the winners of the National Board of Review awards. However, he wagered his points strategically and scored three times as many to win the contest. Both are to be commended as only three of our editors got even one winner correct while our Experts were shut out entirely.
Likewise, Ryan Fernand tied with RobertPius at 67% of the winners of the New York Film Critics Circle but won on points. His margin of victory in that tally was closer (about 30% difference) but highlights how important it is where you place your Super (500 points) and Big (200) bets.
All of them win a $100 Amazon gift certificate as do Buddy (67% of Globe TV noms), me123 (78% of SAG TV noms) and trebor76 (80% of Grammy noms).
Hurry up and give us your predix for the Critics' Choice nominations, which will be unveiled on Monday. Be our next winner.
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