'Lincoln' and 'Silver Linings Playbook' lead the Oscars' Best Picture race

By Tom O'Neil
By Tom O'Neil
Sep 18 2012 16:06 pm
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"The Silver Linings Playbook" and "Lincoln" are the ponies most Oscarologists are betting on to win the Academy Awards' race for Best Picture, according to a poll conducted by Gold Derby.

Twelve of 18 experts in the survey are evenly split on both films. Six pundits choose "Silver Linings Playbook," director David O. Russell's comedy about a former teacher (Bradley Cooper) who falls in love with a mysterious woman (Jennifer Lawrence) after he checks out of a mental hospital. Picking it to prevail: Dave Karger (Entertainment Weekly), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Alex Suskind (Moviefone) and Chuck Walton (Fandango).

"Lincoln" – Steven Spielberg's biopic starring Daniel Day-Lewis as the martyred Civil War president – also has six prognosticators behind it: Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Richard Horgan (MediaBistro/ FishbowlLA), Kevin Polowy (NextMovie), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily) and me.

Three pundits opt for "Les Miserables," a screen adaptation of the long-running Broadway musical by director Tom Hooper ("The King's Speech"): Edward Douglas (Comingsoon), Tariq Khan (Fox News) and Keith Simanton (IMDB).

Thelma Adams (Yahoo) and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today) opt for "Argo." Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) chooses "The Master."

See here how each expert ranks the contenders in the top races. When the rankings are combined, they translate into these racetrack odds, which give "Silver Linings Playbook" a slight edge (10 to 3) over "Lincoln" (7 to 2) in the Best Picture derby.

Below: the tally of pundits backing each top contender to win the four acting races.

BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln" – 10
Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master" – 8

BEST ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, "The Silver Linings Playbook" – 15
Keira Knightley, "Anna Karenina" – 1
Marion Cotillard, "Rust and Bone" – 1
Naomi Watts, "The Impossible" – 1

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master" – 12
Alan Arkin, "Argo" – 2
Robert De Niro, "Silver Linings Playbook" – 2
Leonardo DiCaprio, "Django Unchained" – 2

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables" – 8
Amy Adams, "The Master" – 4
Helen Hunt, "The Sessions" – 4
Sally Field, "Lincoln" – 1
 

 
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Oscars Predictions by Top Experts

See the latest Oscar predictions of our famous pundits — Click Here. See the category rankings when their predictions are combined - Click Here. Sample below. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.

Odds   View %  
Experts
1 BoyhoodBoyhood
4/11
2 BirdmanBirdman
13/2
3 The Grand Budapest HotelThe Grand Budapest Hotel
14/1
4 The Imitation GameThe Imitation Game
50/1
5 SelmaSelma
100/1
6 American SniperAmerican Sniper
100/1
7 The Theory of EverythingThe Theory of Everything
100/1
8 WhiplashWhiplash
100/1
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