"Argo" and Daniel Day-Lewis ("Lincoln") just got significant boosts when Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood) updated his Oscars predictions at Gold Derby. "Argo" took over his top spot for Best Picture, bumping "Silver Linings Playbook" to second place and Day-Lewis leapt up two notches to rule the Best Actor race, eclipsing Bradley Cooper ("Silver Linings Playbook") and Joaquin Phoenix ("The Master").
"It's all based on momentum and that's what I believe Oscar races are," Pete says in our podcast chat. "I think all the momentum this weekend is with 'Argo.' It got a very rare A+ Cinemascore rating. That means audience reaction is through the roof. Ben Affleck's been everywhere. People love it. And I think 'Argo' has an advantage because it makes the film industry look good."
But Pete doesn't think it's a lock to win. " I think it's a very fluid race right now. I don't see any slam-dunks," he adds. "'Les Miz' is the one, sight-unseen contender that could be a real threat."
Weighing the Best Actor race, he moved Daniel Day-Lewis to the top because he "is every bit as great you think he should be as Lincoln. I think the academy at large is going to like the film."
Pete chastises me for making an early call for Day-Lewis, warning that we still haven't seen Denzel Washington in "Flight," Hugh Jackman in "Les Miserables" and Anthony Hopkins in "Hitchcock." He continues to champion Bradley Cooper because " I think that's the most original performance I've seen this year."
Check out Pete's latest predictions here. Compare his predix to other experts' forecasts. Listen to Pete and my full chat below.
Click on boxes below to subscribe to Gold Derby's podcasts. Here is RSS feed.