"Even though there's been a lot of buzz for 'Les Miz,' I'm an 'Argo'-naut at this point in terms of Best Picture," Thelma Adams (Yahoo) asserts in a podcast chat with Gold Derby. "Because 'Silver Linings Playbook' hasn't played yet, we don't really know the roll-out. I would say that those two are the front-runners."
While "Silver Linings Playbook" will not open until Nov. 21, it's been seen by journos, but "Les Miserables," "Zero Dark Thirty," "Django Unchained" and "The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey" have not and therefore they're wild cards – or rather wild ponies. Adams recalls the high early expectations last year for "War Horse," which tripped up once it hit the derby track.
Adams remains optimistic about "Les Miz," though ("the trailer looks yummy"), but doesn't think "Django" will be Oscar bait. "'Django Unchained' is going to be big and crazy and I don't really know if that will move the academy mountain," she says, but I disagree.
We do concur on this: "'The Master' is falling," she notes. "It came out of Venice hot, hot, hot … and now it's not, not, not"— at least in the Best Picture contest. Joaquin Phoenix remains a strong contender for Best Actor, of course, but he needs to slip by Daniel Day-Lewis ("Lincoln").
Weighing the lead actress derby, Adams zeroes in on the star of "Zero Dark Thirty": "I think it's interesting that they moved Jessica Chastain up to lead from supporting. She could've been nominated for – what? – five films last year and got in for 'The Help.' She has so much momentum behind her. I think that really changes the Best Actress race."
See Thelma Adams' complete Oscar predictions here. See mine here.