In our webcam chat, Keith Simanton (IMDB) explains why he's betting (for now) on "Les Miserables" to win the Oscar for Best Picture: "I think if Tom Hooper nails this -- which, by all accounts he has -- it could sweep up with the older voters in the academy. It's a well-loved property and it's got that scope that the Oscar folks love."
Simanton also believes "Argo" is a strong contender ("they love movies about movies") as well as one surprise choice: "The Impossible." "It is a tsumani of a film," he says, "and, even if you know what happens, it is incredibly suspenseful, sometimes hard to watch, but ultimately satisfying and ennobling."
Below are two options to catch Simanton's views on the derby – webcam and audio podcast. See a full breakdown of his predix here.
Click on one of the boxes below to subscribe to Gold Derby's podcasts. Here is RSS feed.
Earliest Oscars Predictions Ever
Our Oscarologists are busy updating their predictions as they see more and more contenders. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.