'Les Miserables' leaps ahead in Oscars Best Picture race

By Tom O'Neil
By Tom O'Neil
Nov 26 2012 16:38 pm
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Les Miserables Zero Dark Thirty 30 Les Miz entertainment news 1782956

Now that "Les Miserables" and "Zero Dark Thirty" have finally been seen by Oscarologists, "Les Miserables" has resumed its lead in the Best Picture race by a comfortable margin (5 to 1 odds). Eleven pundits out of the 26 polled by Gold Derby now predict it will win. Five back "Argo" (11/2) and "Lincoln" (6/1).  Three pick "Zero Dark Thirty" (8/1). See all experts' rankings here, racetrack odds here.

Just four days ago, "Argo" led "Les Miserables" by a score of 12 to six, followed by "Lincoln" with three.

Now these pundits have ditched "Argo" for "Les Miserables": Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and Alex Suskind (AOL Moviefone). Chuck Walton (Fandango) ditched "Argo" for "Zero Dark Thirty." Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily) and Michael Hogan (HuffPo) dropped "Argo" for "Lincoln."

Dave Karger (Fandango) just switched to "Les Miz" after pushing "Silver Linings Playbook" down to the second slot.

For a few weeks in October, most of our experts bet on "Les Miserables" after Gold Derby reported that Snuggle4 (winner of our users' Oscar predictions contest last year) predicted a "monster sweep" by "Les Miz," presumably after he attended a test screening held in Hollywood. However, "Argo" pulled ahead after opening in theaters to rave reviews and strong ticket sales.

Click here to see the experts' latest rankings. Below is a summary scorecard of what they place in the top spot.

"LES MISERABLES" - Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Pete Hammond (Deadline), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Alex Suskind (AOL Moviefone), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today)

"ARGO" - Thelma Adams (Yahoo), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Guy Lodge (In Contention, HitFix), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby)

"LINCOLN" - Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Michael Hogan (HuffPo), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Glenn Whipp (LA Times)

"ZERO DARK THIRTY" - Richard Horgan (Mediabistro), Steve Pond (TheWrap), Chuck Walton (Fandango)

"SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK" - Sean O'Connell (Hollywood News)

"LIFE OF PI" - Kevin Polowy (Next Movie)

RELATED: Tom O'Neil on 'Les Miserables' Oscars mystery: Will it win?

RELATED: Tom O'Neil on how 'Zero Dark Thirty' will do at the Oscars

 
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Our Oscarologists are busy updating their predictions as they see more and more contenders. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.

Odds   View %  
Experts
1 BoyhoodBoyhood
9/2
2 UnbrokenUnbroken
13/2
3 BirdmanBirdman
15/2
4 The Imitation GameThe Imitation Game
8/1
5 Gone GirlGone Girl
12/1
6 FoxcatcherFoxcatcher
12/1
7 The Theory of EverythingThe Theory of Everything
12/1
8 InterstellarInterstellar
14/1
9 The Grand Budapest HotelThe Grand Budapest Hotel
33/1
10 SelmaSelma
50/1
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