Our pundits don't expect Scarlett Johansson to be a factor at this year's Oscars for "Hitchcock"; in the race for Best Supporting Actress, she currently trails with 100 to 1 odds. However, her chances are better at the Golden Globes, where she gets more favorable 25 to 1 odds.
She competes against the same field of women for both prizes, so why are our awards watchers so much more optimistic about her chances at the Globes? Probably because of her track record.
The Golden Globes are a proving ground for Oscar contenders on the awards campaign trail; though disagreement between the Hollywood Foreign Press and the Academy is not uncommon, there is usually considerable overlap among nominees. Last year, of the 20 Oscar nominees for acting, 15 were also nominated at the Globes.
But Johansson is an anomaly. The actress has four previous Globe bids for her film work, but wasn't able to parlay any of those into a corresponding nomination at the Oscars.
She received her first two nominations in 2003, her breakthrough year, when she had leading roles in two acclaimed films: "Lost in Translation" and "Girl with a Pearl Earring." The Globes split lead actors into separate drama and comedy/musical categories, allowing her to more easily earn bids for both films.
But despite doubling up again at the BAFTA Awards (and winning for "Lost in Translation"), she was completely snubbed at the Oscars, possibly as the result of vote-splitting, combined with an unsuccessful attempt to campaign her as a supporting actress in "Translation."
Her third Globe bid came the very next year, for Best Drama Actress in "A Love Song for Bobby Long," but that film was otherwise not a major awards contender; it didn't receive a single other nomination that season.
Her most recent nod was for Best Supporting Actress in Woody Allen's "Match Point," an uncharacteristically dark drama from the director known for "Annie Hall" and "Hannah and Her Sisters." It received four Globe nominations overall, including Best Drama Picture, but it was not as warmly received by Oscar voters, who only nominated Allen's screenplay.
Johansson has a chance at her fifth Globe nomination – and her first Oscar bid – for "Hitchcock," in which she plays silver-screen star Janet Leigh during the making of Alfred Hitchcock's classic horror film "Psycho." In a way, it would be award-show kismet: Leigh won a Globe in the same category for "Psycho" and was subsequently nominated at the Oscars.
Will playing a previous Golden Globe winner help put Johansson in the race? And if so, will it elevate her Oscar chances this time around?