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Will New York Film Critics Circle winners foreshadow the Oscars?

By Gold Derby News Desk
By Gold Derby News Desk
Dec 01 2012 04:40 am
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The New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) will be the first organization to announce its picks for the best of 2012. The group, whose members include Time's Richard Corliss, Rolling Stone's Peter Travers, and Entertainment Weekly's Lisa Schwarzbaum and Owen Gleiberman, reveals its winners on Monday, Dec. 3.

In the last ten years, four of NYFCC's Best Picture winners have gone on to take the top Oscar: "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" (2003), "No Country for Old Men" (2007), "The Hurt Locker" (2009), and "The Artist" (2011). You have to go back to 2002 to find a NYFCC winner that wasn't at least nominated for the Best Picture Oscar: Todd Haynes's "Far from Heaven."

This year, "The Master" is favored to win Best Picture, with odds of 21 to 10. Its closest competitors are "Argo" (4 to 1), "Lincoln" (11 to 2), and "Zero Dark Thirty" (6 to 1).

"The Master" helmer Paul Thomas Anderson is also the favorite to win Best Director. It would be the first win for the filmmaker, who was the runner-up in 2007 for his last film, "There Will Be Blood." "The Master" gets best odds in two other categories: Best Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor for Philip Seymour Hoffman.

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Daniel Day-Lewis leads with 11 to 8 odds for Best Actor as the title character in "Lincoln." He has already won a remarkable four awards from the NYFCC: Best Actor for "There Will Be Blood" (2007), "Gangs of New York" (2002), and "My Left Foot" (1989), and Best Supporting Actor in 1986 for both "My Beautiful Laundrette" and "A Room with a View."

Oscar-favorite Jennifer Lawrence is expected to win Best Actress for "Silver Linings Playbook." She gets 21 to 10 odds against her nearest rival, Marion Cotillard ("Rust and Bone"). Another Oscar frontrunner, Anne Hathaway, is the favorite to win Best Supporting Actress for her work in "Les Miserables."

 
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Our Oscarologists are busy updating their predictions as they see more and more contenders. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.

Odds   View %  
Experts
1 BoyhoodBoyhood
9/2
2 BirdmanBirdman
6/1
3 UnbrokenUnbroken
13/2
4 FoxcatcherFoxcatcher
9/1
5 The Imitation GameThe Imitation Game
9/1
6 The Theory of EverythingThe Theory of Everything
16/1
7 Gone GirlGone Girl
16/1
8 InterstellarInterstellar
16/1
9 FuryFury
33/1
10 The Grand Budapest HotelThe Grand Budapest Hotel
33/1
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