The New York Film Critics Circle (NYFCC) will be the first organization to announce its picks for the best of 2012. The group, whose members include Time's Richard Corliss, Rolling Stone's Peter Travers, and Entertainment Weekly's Lisa Schwarzbaum and Owen Gleiberman, reveals its winners on Monday, Dec. 3.
In the last ten years, four of NYFCC's Best Picture winners have gone on to take the top Oscar: "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" (2003), "No Country for Old Men" (2007), "The Hurt Locker" (2009), and "The Artist" (2011). You have to go back to 2002 to find a NYFCC winner that wasn't at least nominated for the Best Picture Oscar: Todd Haynes's "Far from Heaven."
"The Master" helmer Paul Thomas Anderson is also the favorite to win Best Director. It would be the first win for the filmmaker, who was the runner-up in 2007 for his last film, "There Will Be Blood." "The Master" gets best odds in two other categories: Best Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor for Philip Seymour Hoffman.
Daniel Day-Lewis leads with 11 to 8 odds for Best Actor as the title character in "Lincoln." He has already won a remarkable four awards from the NYFCC: Best Actor for "There Will Be Blood" (2007), "Gangs of New York" (2002), and "My Left Foot" (1989), and Best Supporting Actor in 1986 for both "My Beautiful Laundrette" and "A Room with a View."
Oscar-favorite Jennifer Lawrence is expected to win Best Actress for "Silver Linings Playbook." She gets 21 to 10 odds against her nearest rival, Marion Cotillard ("Rust and Bone"). Another Oscar frontrunner, Anne Hathaway, is the favorite to win Best Supporting Actress for her work in "Les Miserables."
Gold Derby presents 4 sets
of Oscar predictions
See contenders' momentum in easy-to-read graphs here. Click links on left side of that page to see more categories. Click here to see the racetrack odds generated when the Experts' predix are combined.
Jonathan was our top User at predicting the Golden Globe film nominations. He scored a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery.
Christian aced the winners of the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn., scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight."
Cinemateo21 tied with one other User (dottardi) at 34% of the winners of the National Board of Review awards. However, he wagered his points strategically and scored three times as many to win the contest. Both are to be commended as only three of our editors got even one winner correct while our Experts were shut out entirely.
Likewise, Ryan Fernand tied with RobertPius at 67% of the winners of the New York Film Critics Circle but won on points. His margin of victory in that tally was closer (about 30% difference) but highlights how important it is where you place your Super (500 points) and Big (200) bets.
All of them win a $100 Amazon gift certificate as do Buddy (67% of Globe TV noms), me123 (78% of SAG TV noms) and trebor76 (80% of Grammy noms).
Hurry up and give us your predix for the Critics' Choice nominations, which will be unveiled on Monday. Be our next winner.
See videos or listen to audio podcasts here. Click image below to listen/subscribe at iTunes.