What do the LA film critics awards tell us about the Oscars?
For those fans of "Zero Dark Thirty," fear not: the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn. has a spotty record at crystalballing the Oscars. (Read full report of their winners here.)
Last year, the group named "The Descendants" as the Best Picture of the year. It was the New York Film Critics Circle which went with eventual Oscar champ "The Artist."
In its 37-year history, LAFCA has only predicted seven Best Picture winners. The last of these, ironically, was "ZD30" helmer Kathryn Bigelow's "The Hurt Locker" in 2009. Prior to that it was in 1993 when "Schindler's List" ran the board, winning NYFCC, NBR and LAFCA before triumphing at the Oscars.
And Bigelow's win in 2009 was the last of the 11 Best Director Oscar champs that LAFCA foresaw. However, they do much better with the acting awards.
They've gotten Best Actor right 21 times, though last year's LA winner Michael Fassbender was not nominated for any of his leading performances ("A Dangerous Method," "Jane Eyre," "Shame" and "X-Men: First Class").
A dozen of their Best Actress winners went on to claim the Oscar, though their last four picks weren't even nominated. Three of those were for foreign-language performances, which does not bode well for Emmanuelle Riva ("Amour").
Fourteen of their choices for Supporting Actor repeated at the Oscars, including Christopher Plummer ("Beginners") last year.
And thirteen of their Supporting Actress winners picked up matching Oscar bookends. Last year, LAFCA cited Jessica Chastain for six films: "Coriolanus," "The Debt," "The Help," "Take Shelter," "Texas Killing Fields" and "The Tree of Life." She contended at the Oscars for "The Help" but lost to co-star Octavia Spencer.