'Lincoln' surges ahead of 'Les Miserables' in Oscars' Best Picture race

By Tom O'Neil
By Tom O'Neil
Dec 14 2012 14:17 pm
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What a difference a few days makes. On Dec. 12, "Les Miserables" had a cozy lead in Oscar's Best Picture race, according to Gold Derby's poll of Oscars experts. Just two days later, "Lincoln" – propelled by strong showings at the Golden Globes and SAG Awards nominations – has surged ahead like a classic Oscar dark horse.

Eleven out of 27 Oscarologists now believe Steven Spielberg's biopic on Honest Abe will triumph as Best Picture, compared to seven for "Argo," four each for "Les Miserables" and "Zero Dark Thirty" and one for "Silver Linings Playbook." Two days ago the score was 10 for "Les Miserables," six for "Zero Dark Thirty," five for "Lincoln," four for "Argo" and one for "Silver Linings Playbook.

"Lincoln" led with the most Golden Globe nominations (seven) unveiled yesterday and tied "Les Miserables" and "Silver Linings Playbook" for the highest tally of SAG bids (four) announced on Wednesday. When the Critics' Choice Awards reported noms on Tuesday, "Lincoln" set a new record: 13.

Many pundits responded by dropping "Les Miserables" for "Lincoln," including Pete Hammond (Deadline), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today) and me. Richard Rushfield (BuzzFeed) joined the Gold Derby pundit lineup this week by casting his first vote for "Lincoln." Previously in the "Lincoln" camp and still holding on: Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Michael Hogan (Huffington Post), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood/ Indiewire), Sasha Stone (AwardsDaily) and Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times).

Michael Musto (Village Voice) dropped "Zero Dark Thirty" for "Lincoln" and Tariq Khan (Fox News) ditched "Les Miserables" for "Argo."

Meantime, the following gurus remain "Les Miserables" stalwarts: Dave Karger (Fandango), Edward Douglas (Comingsoon), Keith Simanton (IMDB) and Alex Suskind (AOL Moviefone).

In the "Argo" camp: Thelma Adams (Yahoo), Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Richard Horgan (MediaBistro FishbowlLA), Guy Lodge (Hitfix), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Paul Sheehan (GoldDerby)

"Zero Dark Thirty": Kevin Polowy (NextMovie), Steve Pond (TheWrap), Chuck Walton (Fandango) and Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere).

Sean O'Connell (Hollywood News) remains stanchly behind "Silver Linings Playbook."

See the full rankings of all 27 Experts here.

 
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2 UnbrokenUnbroken
6/1
3 BirdmanBirdman
15/2
4 The Imitation GameThe Imitation Game
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5 InterstellarInterstellar
12/1
6 The Theory of EverythingThe Theory of Everything
12/1
7 Gone GirlGone Girl
12/1
8 FoxcatcherFoxcatcher
16/1
9 American SniperAmerican Sniper
33/1
10 SelmaSelma
50/1
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