Move over, Philip Seymour Hoffman! There's a new Oscar frontrunner in the race for Best Supporting Actor, according the experts' predictions at Gold Derby: Tommy Lee Jones.
Jones now leads with 13 to 5 odds; Hoffman nabs 7 to 2.
For the past two months, Hoffman has held a strong lead over rivals, but, as you can see in the chart above, that edge has diminished consistently in recent weeks. Now Jones, who plays abolitionist Thaddeus Stevens in Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln," is favored by 10 of our 28 Oscarologists.
Jones' backers: Thelma Adams (Yahoo), Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Dave Karger (Fandango), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Richard Rushfield (BuzzFeed), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).
Former frontrunner Philip Seymour Hoffman ("The Master") now only has the support of six pundits: Michael Musto (Village Voice), Kevin Polowy (Next Movie), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Alex Suskind (Moviefone), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), and Chuck Walton (Fandango).
The change comes as momentum has shifted for their respective films in the awards derby. "Lincoln" led with the most nominations at all three of last week's awards announcements: Critics' Choice, Golden Globes, and SAG Awards, including bids at all three for Jones.
Hoffman was also nominated for all three, but "The Master" didn't perform as well. It was snubbed in all other categories at the SAG Awards, and missed out on a Drama Picture nomination from the Globes, indicating soft support for the film overall.
The snub by SAG may be especially significant. Of the three groups, only SAG has any overlap with the Academy; actors represent the Academy's largest branch.
See our Experts' complete rankings here.
Every actor submits only one sample episode, which will be judged by other actors (ranging from 25 to 75 per category jury) between July 28 and August 14. TV series submit six, which will be split into three pairs to be distributed randomly to about 300 voters. We now have uncovered every single title submitted for the 2014 races. CLICK HERE FOR THE EPISODES
We analyze the pros and cons
of episodes submitted by actors
to Emmy judges
Who submitted well? Click links below to read our in-depth analysis of each actor's episode entry.
DRAMA GUEST ACTRESS
Kate Burton ("Scandal")
Jane Fonda ("The Newsroom")
Allison Janney ("Masters of Sex")
Kate Mara ("House of Cards")
Margo Martindale ("The Americans")
Diana Rigg ("Game of Thrones")