Tommy Lee Jones leaps ahead in Oscar's supporting actor race

By Daniel Montgomery
By Daniel Montgomery
Dec 19 2012 21:43 pm
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Dec 17 2014 11:58 am
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Move over, Philip Seymour Hoffman! There's a new Oscar frontrunner in the race for Best Supporting Actor, according the experts' predictions at Gold Derby: Tommy Lee Jones.

Jones now leads with 13 to 5 odds; Hoffman nabs 7 to 2.

For the past two months, Hoffman has held a strong lead over rivals, but, as you can see in the chart above, that edge has diminished consistently in recent weeks. Now Jones, who plays abolitionist Thaddeus Stevens in Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln," is favored by 10 of our 28 Oscarologists.

Jones' backers: Thelma Adams (Yahoo), Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Dave Karger (Fandango), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Richard Rushfield (BuzzFeed), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

Former frontrunner Philip Seymour Hoffman ("The Master") now only has the support of six pundits: Michael Musto (Village Voice), Kevin Polowy (Next Movie), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Alex Suskind (Moviefone), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), and Chuck Walton (Fandango).

The change comes as momentum has shifted for their respective films in the awards derby. "Lincoln" led with the most nominations at all three of last week's awards announcements: Critics' Choice, Golden Globes, and SAG Awards, including bids at all three for Jones.

Hoffman was also nominated for all three, but "The Master" didn't perform as well. It was snubbed in all other categories at the SAG Awards, and missed out on a Drama Picture nomination from the Globes, indicating soft support for the film overall.

The snub by SAG may be especially significant. Of the three groups, only SAG has any overlap with the Academy; actors represent the Academy's largest branch.

Rounding out our experts' top five are Robert De Niro ("Silver Linings Playbook"), Alan Arkin ("Argo"), and Leonardo DiCaprio ("Django Unchained").

See our Experts' complete rankings here.

 
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Inside Track: Oscar Predictions

Oscars predictions

Oscars Predictions by Top Experts

See the latest Oscar predictions of our famous pundits — Click Here. See the category rankings when their predictions are combined - Click Here. Sample below. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.

Odds   View %  
Experts
1 BoyhoodBoyhood
7/2
2 BirdmanBirdman
6/1
3 SelmaSelma
13/2
4 The Imitation GameThe Imitation Game
8/1
5 The Theory of EverythingThe Theory of Everything
10/1
6 WhiplashWhiplash
16/1
7 The Grand Budapest HotelThe Grand Budapest Hotel
16/1
8 Gone GirlGone Girl
20/1
9 UnbrokenUnbroken
20/1
10 FoxcatcherFoxcatcher
20/1
See complete statistics by Clicking Here
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