For the past two months, Hoffman has held a strong lead over rivals, but, as you can see in the chart above, that edge has diminished consistently in recent weeks. Now Jones, who plays abolitionist Thaddeus Stevens in Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln," is favored by 10 of our 28 Oscarologists.
Jones' backers: Thelma Adams (Yahoo), Edward Douglas (Coming Soon), Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Dave Karger (Fandango), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Richard Rushfield (BuzzFeed), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone), and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).
Former frontrunner Philip Seymour Hoffman ("The Master") now only has the support of six pundits: Michael Musto (Village Voice), Kevin Polowy (Next Movie), Steve Pond (The Wrap), Alex Suskind (Moviefone), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), and Chuck Walton (Fandango).
The change comes as momentum has shifted for their respective films in the awards derby. "Lincoln" led with the most nominations at all three of last week's awards announcements: Critics' Choice, Golden Globes, and SAG Awards, including bids at all three for Jones.
Hoffman was also nominated for all three, but "The Master" didn't perform as well. It was snubbed in all other categories at the SAG Awards, and missed out on a Drama Picture nomination from the Globes, indicating soft support for the film overall.