On paper, the Grammy for Best Pop Solo Performance should be a lock for Kelly Clarkson. She has won a pop vocal Grammy before ("Since U Been Gone" in 2005), but more importantly her song, "Stronger (What Doesn't Kill You)," is also nominated for both Record and Song of the Year, which none of the other nominees can boast, and that is usually a strong advantage.
But Clarkson is not the frontrunner according to our Grammy predictions. Instead, Adele has a slight advantage for a live version of "Set Fire to the Rain" from her Royal Albert Hall concert album. Users and editors predict her by a narrow margin, and for good reason.
Last year, Adele pulled off a clean sweep of the Grammys, winning all six of her nominations, including this category for "Someone Like You," thus tying the record for the most awards for a female artist in a single year.
Adele was sidelined by pregnancy for most of 2012, but she was no less dominant: her album, "21," was the top-seller for the second year in a row. And though "Set Fire" was not nominated for Record of the Year – it was not submitted for Song – that may not be a significant disadvantage. Grammy voters greatly prefer to honor studio recordings in that field, but live performances have been known to prevail in genre categories. Given her undiminished popularity, can voters resist honoring her again?
Our forum posters disagree. A poll in our message board puts Clarkson out front, with 56% of respondents predicting her to win, compared to 37% for Adele, but most agree it's a two-way race. Few give any hope to their rivals Jepsen, Rihanna ("Where Have You Been"), and Katy Perry ("Wide Awake").
Read some of their comments below, and join the discussion here.
OnTheGO: This is obviously Adele vs. Kelly. No one else has a chance. Kelly seems to have everything in her favor, but the Grammys might want to continue the lovefest for Adele. It's a total tossup. I'll go with Kelly.
TWC: If Kelly is to win one Grammy, it's this one. However, you can never count Adele out of a Grammy race.
TV12: As much love as Adele has, Kelly clearly has more support this year. She isn't a lock, but Kelly is obviously out front.
jbboy11: Kelly Clarkson will and should win. The only one who might beat her is Adele, but I think Kelly will reign this year. The other three women don't have a shot and I'm shocked they got in over Jason Mraz, Norah Jones and Pink.
BenitoDelicias: If "Stronger" hadn't been such a big hit that also happens to be nominated for Record and somehow for Song of the Year, I would think more about this category, but with such crappy nominees and a live track, I don't see how Kelly loses this.
Army Of Me: Clarkson will pick up her second award in this category, especially considering the overwhelming support for the song (ROTY and SOTY) and her lack of competition. Adele was a juggernaut last year, but she is now nominated for a live performance and this category has not seen a live song prevail since 2000.