When Academy Awards nominations were unveiled, "Lincoln" seemed to be way out front since it led with the most nominations – 12 – that's just two shy of the record held by "Titanic" and "All About Eve." The pic with the most bids prevails more than two-thirds of the time, historically speaking.
But "Lincoln" also led with the most Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards nominations recently, then ended up losing to "Argo," thus mixing up prognosticators' tea leaves. While Critics Choice tends to be a key Oscar indicator, agreeing on Best Picture 10 times in the past 13 years, the Golden Globe does not, concurring only twice in the past 8 years.
The 10 pundits who now pick "Argo" to bag the top Oscar too are: Thelma Adams (Yahoo), Edward Douglas (Comingsoon), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Guy Lodge (Hitfix), Steve Pond (TheWrap), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Chuck Walton (Fandango) and me.
Backing "Lincoln": Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly), Richard Horgan (Mediabistro), Dave Karger (Fandango), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Kevin Polowy (Next Movie), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Alex Suskind (Moviefone), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood, Indiewire), Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).
Betting on "Silver Linings Playbook": Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere).