Experts: 'Argo' threatens 'Lincoln's' lead in Oscar Best Picture race

By Tom O'Neil
By Tom O'Neil
Jan 17 2013 14:01 pm
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While "Lincoln" continues to lead the Oscar race for Best Picture, "Argo" is closing in fast, according to the latest predictions of 24 experts polled by Gold Derby.

"Lincoln" is the choice of 13 top Oscarologists, giving it 7-to-2 odds, compared to 10 for "Argo" (4-to-1 odds) and 1 for "Silver Linings Playbook" (13 to 2). See full odds rundown here.

When Academy Awards nominations were unveiled, "Lincoln" seemed to be way out front since it led with the most nominations – 12 – that's just two shy of the record held by "Titanic" and "All About Eve." The pic with the most bids prevails more than two-thirds of the time, historically speaking.

But "Lincoln" also led with the most Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards nominations recently, then ended up losing to "Argo," thus mixing up prognosticators' tea leaves. While Critics Choice tends to be a key Oscar indicator, agreeing on Best Picture 10 times in the past 13 years, the Golden Globe does not, concurring only twice in the past 8 years.

The 10 pundits who now pick "Argo" to bag the top Oscar too are: Thelma Adams (Yahoo), Edward Douglas (Comingsoon), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Guy Lodge (Hitfix), Steve Pond (TheWrap), Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post), Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby), Chuck Walton (Fandango) and me.

Backing "Lincoln": Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes), Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter), Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly), Richard Horgan (Mediabistro), Dave Karger (Fandango), Michael Musto (Village Voice), Kevin Polowy (Next Movie), Keith Simanton (IMDB), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Alex Suskind (Moviefone), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood, Indiewire), Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today).

Betting on "Silver Linings Playbook": Jeff Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere).

See how of the Oscarologists rank the contenders in all categories here. See their combined predictions and racetrack odds here.
 

 
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Our Oscarologists are busy updating their predictions as they see more and more contenders. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.

Odds   View %  
Experts
1 BoyhoodBoyhood
9/2
2 UnbrokenUnbroken
6/1
3 BirdmanBirdman
15/2
4 The Imitation GameThe Imitation Game
15/2
5 The Theory of EverythingThe Theory of Everything
12/1
6 InterstellarInterstellar
12/1
7 Gone GirlGone Girl
12/1
8 FoxcatcherFoxcatcher
16/1
9 American SniperAmerican Sniper
33/1
10 SelmaSelma
33/1
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