Awards like Critics' Choice and the Golden Globes are media events covered with great fanfare in the run-up to the Academy Awards, and though many of their winners go on to repeat at the Oscars, their reliability as predictors is limited by the fact that their respective voting bodies, the Broadcast Film Critics Association and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, are journalist groups which have no relation to the Motion Picture Academy.
Contrary to those, the less widely discussed guild awards are bestowed by industry professionals, many of whom are also members of the Academy, and thus their decisions may be more reflective of the prevailing tastes of Oscar voters. In the coming weeks, Hollywood's artists will award the best achievements in film in fields ranging from writing, directing, and acting to sound editing, costume design, and visual effects. In past years, not all of their winners have corresponded with the Oscars in their respective categories, but they are a strong indicator of overall support in Hollywood.
Except for Foreign Language Film and Documentary Short, which are decided only by voters who have attended special screenings, Oscar winners are decided by an Academy-wide vote, which means broad support throughout the industry is pivotal to achieving victory.
For instance, "Lincoln," currently considered the frontrunner to win the Best Picture Oscar, has across-the-board support from industry professionals. It has been nominated by 10 of the 11 guilds: film editors (ACE), art directors (ADG), cinematographers (ASC), costume designers (CDG), directors (DGA), sound mixers (CAS), sound editors (MPSE), producers (PGA), actors (SAG), and writers (WGA). It was snubbed by only one union: visual effects artists (VES).
Not far behind is "Argo," which received nominations from nine out of 11 guilds; it was overlooked by the ASC and CAS.
Will either of those films sweep the guilds on their way to the Oscars? Now you can predict the winners in all 11 peer-group awards. Click below to start predicting each:
Win $100 predicting:
Emmys, MTV Movie Awards,
ACMs & Daytime Emmys
Read more about entry and rules here. Make your initial predictions now. Change them later as often as you wish up until the nominations or winners are announced.
Below, meet our past winners of recent award prediction contests.
Oscar Nominations: New York state resident Tim Kressner (gufa54) won $1,000 for reaping the highest percentage (78%) when predicting Academy Award noms. Watch our video chat with him here and learn his strategy for making picks. See the leaderboard here. See Kressner's predix here.
Golden Globes (Film): Mario Gomez, a med studen in Mexico, won our contest with the highest percentage of correct picks (86%) and highest point score (2,693). See our video chat with him here. Two other contestants also scored 86%: lulo1989 and eastwest. Tom O'Neil reaped best Experts' score. David Schnelwar had top score among our Editors. See the leaderboard here to see if you made the top tier.
Critics Choice Nominations: Bryce H scored an impressive 83% when sizing up 20 categories. That was one percentage point ahead of our smartest Editor, Daniel Montgomery. Our top Expert was also one of our Editors, Paul Sheehan, who reaped 74%. To see how you performed, check out our leaderboard plus the score section of your account page.
Golden Globe (Film) Nominations: Jonathan was our top User, reaping a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery. Did you made the cut on the leaderboard score breakdown?
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award Winners: Christian aced all rivals, scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight." See leaderboard.