The fifth nominee -- "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" -- does not have the backing of any experts or editors and only a handful of our users.
While only one editor is backing the bid by "Lincoln," a plurality of our users are forecasting this Steven Spielberg biopic to take the top prize on Sunday. All of this support translates into leading odds of 21/10. "Les Miserables" is in second with odds of 10/3 and "Silver Linings Playbook" places with odds of 7/2.
"Argo," which is locked in a fierce battle with "Lincoln" for Best Picture at the Oscars, is back in fourth place at SAG with odds of only 11/2.
After losing to "Argo" at both the Critics' Choice and Golden Globes, "Lincoln" needs this win from SAG. However, this prize is not the best precursor of the lot.
The SAG Ensemble award recognizes the best cast, which may not necessarily be appearing in the academy's Best Picture winner. Since 1995, only eight of the 16 SAG picks have gone on to win Best Picture the Oscars:
“Shakespeare in Love” (1998)
“American Beauty” (1999)
“The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003)
“No Country for Old Men” (2007)
“Slumdog Millionaire” (2008)
“The King’s Speech” (2010)