We have 10 experts predicting the winner of the SAG Awards Ensemble prize and four of the five nominees are supported by at least one of them.
Thom Geier (EW); Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby); Sasha Stone (Awards Daily); Peter Travers (Rolling Stone); Chuck Walton (Fandango)
"Les Miserables" (2)
Tariq Khan (Fox News); Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby)
"Silver Linings Playbook" (2)
Edward Douglas (Coming Soon); Susan Wloszczyna (USA Today)
Richard Horgan (Mediabistro)
The fifth nominee -- "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" -- does not have the backing of any experts or editors and only a handful of our users.
While only one editor is backing the bid by "Lincoln," a plurality of our users are forecasting this Steven Spielberg biopic to take the top prize on Sunday. All of this support translates into leading odds of 21/10. "Les Miserables" is in second with odds of 10/3 and "Silver Linings Playbook" places with odds of 7/2.
"Argo," which is locked in a fierce battle with "Lincoln" for Best Picture at the Oscars, is back in fourth place at SAG with odds of only 11/2.
After losing to "Argo" at both the Critics' Choice and Golden Globes, "Lincoln" needs this win from SAG. However, this prize is not the best precursor of the lot.
The SAG Ensemble award recognizes the best cast, which may not necessarily be appearing in the academy's Best Picture winner. Since 1995, only eight of the 16 SAG picks have gone on to win Best Picture the Oscars:
“Shakespeare in Love” (1998)
“American Beauty” (1999)
“The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003)
“No Country for Old Men” (2007)
“Slumdog Millionaire” (2008)
“The King’s Speech” (2010)
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Read more about entry and rules here. Make your initial predictions now. Change them later as often as you wish up until the nominations or winners are announced.
Below, meet our past winners of recent award prediction contests.
Oscar Nominations: New York state resident Tim Kressner (gufa54) won $1,000 for reaping the highest percentage (78%) when predicting Academy Award noms. Watch our video chat with him here and learn his strategy for making picks. See the leaderboard here. See Kressner's predix here.
Golden Globes (Film): Mario Gomez, a med studen in Mexico, won our contest with the highest percentage of correct picks (86%) and highest point score (2,693). See our video chat with him here. Two other contestants also scored 86%: lulo1989 and eastwest. Tom O'Neil reaped best Experts' score. David Schnelwar had top score among our Editors. See the leaderboard here to see if you made the top tier.
Critics Choice Nominations: Bryce H scored an impressive 83% when sizing up 20 categories. That was one percentage point ahead of our smartest Editor, Daniel Montgomery. Our top Expert was also one of our Editors, Paul Sheehan, who reaped 74%. To see how you performed, check out our leaderboard plus the score section of your account page.
Golden Globe (Film) Nominations: Jonathan was our top User, reaping a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery. Did you made the cut on the leaderboard score breakdown?
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award Winners: Christian aced all rivals, scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight." See leaderboard.