Of the SAG ensemble nominees, "Silver Linings Playbook" is the most represented at the Oscars with four of its actors (Bradley Cooper,Jennifer Lawrence, Robert DeNiro and Jacki Weaver) picking up nominations. A win here for “Silver Linings Playbook” would help it make the case it is the alternative to “Lincoln” not “Argo.”
"Lincoln" has the backing of four experts, one editor and 29% of our users. This support translates to odds of 3/1. Only one other film by Steven Spielberg has contended for this prize -- in 1998 "Saving Private Ryan" lost this award to "Shakespeare in Love," which then repeated at the Oscars.
"Lincoln" reaped the most Oscar nominations of any film this year but failed to back it up at the Critic Choice and Golden Globes, losing both of those top races to “Argo.” A win here for “Lincoln” would help solidify its position as the frontrunner and make it harder for other films to challenge.
"Les Miserables" has the support of one expert, three editors and 23% of our users; that gives it odds of 7/2. It would be the first musical since “Chicago” in 2002 to win the SAG Ensemble award; that tuner also took home the Oscar.
However, due to a lukewarm critical response and the lack of a director nod, the chances of "Les Miz" pulling off the same seem dim. A win at SAG for "Les Miserables" would likely aid “Lincoln” most by denying “Argo” and “Silver Linings Playbook” a chance to build momentum.
"Argo" has one expert, two editors and 15% of users currently predicting it to prevail; this is worth odds of only 5/1. After the huge setback of Ben Affleck being snubbed for director at the Oscars, the film has been surging of late taking top awards at both the Critics Choice and Golden Globe awards. If “Argo” continues its winning streak at SAG, it will be within striking distance of “Lincoln” at the Oscars.