This year's Oscar derby gives Keith Simanton (IMDB) a creepy feeling. "It kind of reminds me of when 'Saving Private Ryan' lost to 'Shakespeare in Love'" back in 1998, he says in our webcam chat, noting that this year's race pits "a Spielbergian, historical drama vs. something essentially about putting on a show."
Simanton calls Steven Spielberg's "Lincoln" "a masterwork -- it's unimpeachable, great filmmaking," but "Argo" -- a film about sneaky Hollywooders putting on a campy sci-fi show in order to fool Iranians -- suddenly seems to have the mojo, according to the predictions of 22 of the 25 pundits (including Simanton) polled by Gold Derby.
"I think Best Supporting Actor is still pretty open," he adds. "I don't really understand the Tommy Lee Jones brouhaha. To me, it was a very one-note performance."
He also believes the widely perceived "Jennifer Lawrence lock may not be such a lock" considering how often the Oscars do not repeat the SAG champ for Best Actress. Last year, for example, SAG voters went for Viola Davis ("The Help") while academy member embraced Meryl Streep ("The Iron Lady").
Earliest Oscars Predictions Ever
Our Oscarologists are busy updating their predictions as they see more and more contenders. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.