The Visual Effects Oscar is typically awarded to CGI-driven films, but the Visual Effects Society also recognizes productions where effects are less central to the storytelling.
In this year's race for Best Supporting Visual Effects, "The Impossible," which dramatizes the 2004 tsunami in Southeast Asia, gets field-leading 3/2 odds from our predictors. It would be the second film in three years to win this award for recreating the 2004 tsunami: Clint Eastwood's supernatural drama "Hereafter" won in 2010.
The rest of the field is far behind. In third place, with 5/1 odds, is "Zero Dark Thirty," which follows the decade-long hunt for Osama Bin Laden.
The momentum of "Argo" at recent guild awards isn't expected to extend to the VES. It ranks fifth with 9/1 odds.
Earliest Oscars Predictions Ever
Our Oscarologists are busy updating their predictions as they see more and more contenders. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.