Will anyone follow Marcia Gay Harden's unusual path to Oscar win?

By Chris Beachum
By Chris Beachum
Feb 03 2013 07:17 am
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Marcia Gay Harden is the only person to ever win an Academy Award without a Screen Actors Guild nomination. This year, six Oscar hopefuls hope to equal that achievement.

Heading into the Oscars back in 2000, Harden had only a win from the New York Film Critics Circle and an Independent Spirit nom to her name for "Pollock." She hadn't merited a mention from SAG, the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice, or any other major critic group. Yet she still prevailed as Best Supporting Actress. 

In the 18-year history of the SAG Awards, Harden stands alone as the only one of the 72 Oscar acting champs to have not contended at these kudos. This year, Emmanuelle Riva ("Amour"), Quvenzhane Wallis ("Beasts of the Southern Wild"), Joaquin Phoenix ("The Master"), Christoph Waltz ("Django Unchained"), Amy Adams ("The Master") and Jacki Weaver ("Silver Linings Playbook") are in the same boat. 

Riva and Wallis are both competing for Best Actress. While Wallis was ineligble for SAG, neither she nor Riva reaped a Golden Globe nomination either. Riva contends at BAFTA next Sunday. Our Gold Derby Oscar odds have Wallis in last place at 9/1. Riva is in the third slot at 9/2 and has the backing of three Experts: Tariq Khan (Fox News), Guy Lodge (In Contention), and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone). Jennifer Lawrence ("Silver Linings Playbook") is predicted to prevail with leading odds of 13/8.

Phoenix is contending in Best Actor, but can anybody take down frontrunner Daniel Day-Lewis ("Lincoln")? Our odds have Phoenix in last at 9/1, miles behind the Golden Globe and SAG champ Day-Lewis at 5/4. For the past eight years, the SAG winner has repeated at the Oscars.

Even though Waltz failed to receive a SAG bid, he is in third place for Best Supporting Actor with odds of at 5/1. It is a very volatile category filled with past Oscar champs. SAG winner Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln") has a slight lead at 17/10. However, Waltz has a real shot with his win at the Golden Globes. Only two of the last 10 Globe champs have not repeated at the Academy Awards: Clive Owen ("Closer") lost to Morgan Freeman ("Million Dollar Baby") in 2004; Eddie Murphy ("Dreamgirls") was defeated by Alan Arkin ("Little Miss Sunshine") in 2006.

Adams and Weaver both contend again in Best Supporting Actress but neither is expected to prevail. Anne Hathaway ("Les Miserables") is way out in front with odds of 27/20. Adams is in fourth position at 13/2, while Weaver is in last at 10/1.

Three caveats about past SAG nominees and wins. Benicio Del Toro ("Traffic") claimed Best Actor at SAG in 2000 but won in supporting at the Oscars. In 2001, Jennifer Connelly ("A Beautiful Mind") contended in lead at SAG but won an Academy Award in supporting. And in 2008, Kate Winslet ("The Reader") won in supporting at SAG but prevailed in the lead category at the Oscars.

 
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Inside Track: Oscar Predictions

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Oscars Predictions by Top Experts

See the latest Oscar predictions of our famous pundits — Click Here. See the category rankings when their predictions are combined - Click Here. Sample below. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.

Odds   View %  
Experts
1 BoyhoodBoyhood
7/2
2 BirdmanBirdman
6/1
3 SelmaSelma
13/2
4 The Imitation GameThe Imitation Game
8/1
5 The Theory of EverythingThe Theory of Everything
10/1
6 WhiplashWhiplash
16/1
7 The Grand Budapest HotelThe Grand Budapest Hotel
16/1
8 Gone GirlGone Girl
20/1
9 UnbrokenUnbroken
20/1
10 FoxcatcherFoxcatcher
20/1
See complete statistics by Clicking Here
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