Heading into the Oscars back in 2000, Harden had only a win from the New York Film Critics Circle and an Independent Spirit nom to her name for "Pollock." She hadn't merited a mention from SAG, the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice, or any other major critic group. Yet she still prevailed as Best Supporting Actress.
Riva and Wallis are both competing for Best Actress. While Wallis was ineligble for SAG, neither she nor Riva reaped a Golden Globe nomination either. Riva contends at BAFTA next Sunday. Our Gold Derby Oscar odds have Wallis in last place at 9/1. Riva is in the third slot at 9/2 and has the backing of three Experts: Tariq Khan (Fox News), Guy Lodge (In Contention), and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone). Jennifer Lawrence ("Silver Linings Playbook") is predicted to prevail with leading odds of 13/8.
Phoenix is contending in Best Actor, but can anybody take down frontrunner Daniel Day-Lewis ("Lincoln")? Our odds have Phoenix in last at 9/1, miles behind the Golden Globe and SAG champ Day-Lewis at 5/4. For the past eight years, the SAG winner has repeated at the Oscars.
Even though Waltz failed to receive a SAG bid, he is in third place for Best Supporting Actorwith odds of at 5/1. It is a very volatile category filled with past Oscar champs. SAG winner Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln") has a slight lead at 17/10. However, Waltz has a real shot with his win at the Golden Globes. Only two of the last 10 Globe champs have not repeated at the Academy Awards: Clive Owen ("Closer") lost to Morgan Freeman ("Million Dollar Baby") in 2004; Eddie Murphy ("Dreamgirls") was defeated by Alan Arkin("Little Miss Sunshine") in 2006.
Three caveats about past SAG nominees and wins. Benicio Del Toro ("Traffic") claimed Best Actor at SAG in 2000 but won in supporting at the Oscars. In 2001, Jennifer Connelly ("A Beautiful Mind") contended in lead at SAG but won an Academy Award in supporting. And in 2008, Kate Winslet ("The Reader") won in supporting at SAG but prevailed in the lead category at the Oscars.