Marcia Gay Harden is the only person to ever win an Academy Award without a Screen Actors Guild nomination. This year, six Oscar hopefuls hope to equal that achievement.
Heading into the Oscars back in 2000, Harden had only a win from the New York Film Critics Circle and an Independent Spirit nom to her name for "Pollock." She hadn't merited a mention from SAG, the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice, or any other major critic group. Yet she still prevailed as Best Supporting Actress.
In the 18-year history of the SAG Awards, Harden stands alone as the only one of the 72 Oscar acting champs to have not contended at these kudos. This year, Emmanuelle Riva ("Amour"), Quvenzhane Wallis ("Beasts of the Southern Wild"), Joaquin Phoenix ("The Master"), Christoph Waltz ("Django Unchained"), Amy Adams ("The Master") and Jacki Weaver ("Silver Linings Playbook") are in the same boat.
Riva and Wallis are both competing for Best Actress. While Wallis was ineligble for SAG, neither she nor Riva reaped a Golden Globe nomination either. Riva contends at BAFTA next Sunday. Our Gold Derby Oscar odds have Wallis in last place at 9/1. Riva is in the third slot at 9/2 and has the backing of three Experts: Tariq Khan (Fox News), Guy Lodge (In Contention), and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone). Jennifer Lawrence ("Silver Linings Playbook") is predicted to prevail with leading odds of 13/8.
Phoenix is contending in Best Actor, but can anybody take down frontrunner Daniel Day-Lewis ("Lincoln")? Our odds have Phoenix in last at 9/1, miles behind the Golden Globe and SAG champ Day-Lewis at 5/4. For the past eight years, the SAG winner has repeated at the Oscars.
Even though Waltz failed to receive a SAG bid, he is in third place for Best Supporting Actor with odds of at 5/1. It is a very volatile category filled with past Oscar champs. SAG winner Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln") has a slight lead at 17/10. However, Waltz has a real shot with his win at the Golden Globes. Only two of the last 10 Globe champs have not repeated at the Academy Awards: Clive Owen ("Closer") lost to Morgan Freeman ("Million Dollar Baby") in 2004; Eddie Murphy ("Dreamgirls") was defeated by Alan Arkin ("Little Miss Sunshine") in 2006.
Adams and Weaver both contend again in Best Supporting Actress but neither is expected to prevail. Anne Hathaway ("Les Miserables") is way out in front with odds of 27/20. Adams is in fourth position at 13/2, while Weaver is in last at 10/1.
Three caveats about past SAG nominees and wins. Benicio Del Toro ("Traffic") claimed Best Actor at SAG in 2000 but won in supporting at the Oscars. In 2001, Jennifer Connelly ("A Beautiful Mind") contended in lead at SAG but won an Academy Award in supporting. And in 2008, Kate Winslet ("The Reader") won in supporting at SAG but prevailed in the lead category at the Oscars.
Final Oscars smackdown: Tariq blasts Tom for that stupid Leo prediction
Those sparring Oscar experts Tariq Khan and Tom O'Neil clash one last time as Tariq blasts Tom for having made a few numbskull picks and Tom counter-attacks with nuclear warheads. Alternately funny, outrageous and fearlessly ferocious, these guys just can't calm down even though the Oscars are over. Listen to their podcast below. Subscribe and see more at iTunes and Libsyn.
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OVERVIEW OF WINNERS (AND LOSERS)
Complete list of winners (and nominees)
Gold Derby odds predicted 22 of 24 Oscar winners
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Beware: 11 possible upsets loom
How the preferential ballot works
Winners In All 24 Categories
Watch: Editors' slugfest with last-minute predix
EXPERTS PREDICTIONS (By category)
Picture: 22 predict '12 Years,' 8 'Gravity'
Director: 30 predict Alfonso Cuaron
Actor: 29 predict Matthew McConaughey
Actress: 30 predict Cate Blanchett
Supporting Actor: 30 predict Jared Leto
Supp. Actress: 26 predict Nyong'o, 4 Lawrence
Original Screenplay: 15 predict 'Hustle,' 15 'Her'
Adapted Screenplay: 29 predict '12 Years'
Animated Feature: 30 predict 'Frozen'
Foreign Film: 26 predict 'Great Beauty'
Documentary: 19 predict '20 Feet,'
Production Design: 22 predict 'Gatsby,' 5 'Gravity'
Cinematography: 29 predict 'Gravity'
Costume Design: 24 predict 'Gatsby,' 4 'Hustle'
Editing: 20 predict 'Gravity,' 8 'Captain Phillips'
Makeup & Hair: 28 predict 'Dallas Buyers Club'
Sound Editing & Mixing: 29 predict 'Gravity'
Score: 28 predict 'Gravity'
Song: 28 predict 'Frozen,' two favor U2
Visual Effects: 29 predict 'Gravity'
Animated Short: 27 predict 'Get a Horse'
Doc Short: 29 predict 'Lady in Number 6'
Live Action Short: 16 'Voorman,' 9 'Helium'
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Read more about entry and rules here. Make your initial Oscar predictions now. Change them later as often as you wish up until Oscar Day. Below, meet our past winners of recent award prediction contests.
Oscar Nominations: New York state resident Tim Kressner (gufa54) won $1,000 for reaping the highest percentage (78%) when predicting Academy Award noms. Watch our video chat with him here and learn his strategy for making picks. See the leaderboard here. See Kressner's predix here.
Golden Globes (Film): Mario Gomez, a med studen in Mexico, won our contest with the highest percentage of correct picks (86%) and highest point score (2,693). See our video chat with him here. Two other contestants also scored 86%: lulo1989 and eastwest. Tom O'Neil reaped best Experts' score. David Schnelwar had top score among our Editors. See the leaderboard here to see if you made the top tier.
Critics Choice Nominations: Bryce H scored an impressive 83% when sizing up 20 categories. That was one percentage point ahead of our smartest Editor, Daniel Montgomery. Our top Expert was also one of our Editors, Paul Sheehan, who reaped 74%. To see how you performed, check out our leaderboard plus the score section of your account page.
Golden Globe (Film) Nominations: Jonathan was our top User, reaping a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery. Did you made the cut on the leaderboard score breakdown?
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award Winners: Christian aced all rivals, scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight." See leaderboard.
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