Twenty-three of our 25 Oscarologists predict "Argo" will win Best Picture, but two brave pundits still stand by "Lincoln": Sasha Stone (Awards Daily – see her predix here) and Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly – see his predix).
Sasha has been a diehard "Lincoln" soldier for eons, but she briefly caved in to the momentum behind "Argo" after it swept the Producers, Screen Actors' and Directors' Guilds, then climbed back up on her feet and mustered new courage to resume her fight for "Lincoln." Noting how rarely a film has managed to win Best Picture without its director being nommed in modern times (just once – that notorious "Driving Miss Daisy" example), she says, "I have to adhere to the stats in the face of confusion – I am just built that way."
Poor Thom is waffling a bit too. At one point in our podcast chat, he admits that the other 23 Oscarologists may be right, but then he suddenly snaps out of it, rallies behind his choice of "Lincoln" and says, "I find it hard to imagine that when you're filling out a ballot with 26 categories, the only thing you're checking off is 'Argo' for Best Picture. It's possible that it could pick up some technical awards. It might pick up adapted screenplay over 'Lincoln.' It could get editing. But it's kind of hard for me to imagine an 'Argo' sweep, which is what you tend to get with a Best Picture winner."
Yes, that's true, but in our podcast I remind Thom that "Crash" only won three Oscars. Doesn't matter. For now anyway, he remains undeterred.
Earliest Oscars Predictions Ever
Our Oscarologists are busy updating their predictions as they see more and more contenders. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.