Twenty-three of our 25 Oscarologists predict "Argo" will win Best Picture, but two brave pundits still stand by "Lincoln": Sasha Stone (Awards Daily – see her predix here) and Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly – see his predix).
Sasha has been a diehard "Lincoln" soldier for eons, but she briefly caved in to the momentum behind "Argo" after it swept the Producers, Screen Actors' and Directors' Guilds, then climbed back up on her feet and mustered new courage to resume her fight for "Lincoln." Noting how rarely a film has managed to win Best Picture without its director being nommed in modern times (just once – that notorious "Driving Miss Daisy" example), she says, "I have to adhere to the stats in the face of confusion – I am just built that way."
Poor Thom is waffling a bit too. At one point in our podcast chat, he admits that the other 23 Oscarologists may be right, but then he suddenly snaps out of it, rallies behind his choice of "Lincoln" and says, "I find it hard to imagine that when you're filling out a ballot with 26 categories, the only thing you're checking off is 'Argo' for Best Picture. It's possible that it could pick up some technical awards. It might pick up adapted screenplay over 'Lincoln.' It could get editing. But it's kind of hard for me to imagine an 'Argo' sweep, which is what you tend to get with a Best Picture winner."
Yes, that's true, but in our podcast I remind Thom that "Crash" only won three Oscars. Doesn't matter. For now anyway, he remains undeterred.
Final Oscars smackdown: Tariq blasts Tom for that stupid Leo prediction
Those sparring Oscar experts Tariq Khan and Tom O'Neil clash one last time as Tariq blasts Tom for having made a few numbskull picks and Tom counter-attacks with nuclear warheads. Alternately funny, outrageous and fearlessly ferocious, these guys just can't calm down even though the Oscars are over. Listen to their podcast below. Subscribe and see more at iTunes and Libsyn.
Hot Oscar Links
OVERVIEW OF WINNERS (AND LOSERS)
Complete list of winners (and nominees)
Gold Derby odds predicted 22 of 24 Oscar winners
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
Beware: 11 possible upsets loom
How the preferential ballot works
Winners In All 24 Categories
Watch: Editors' slugfest with last-minute predix
EXPERTS PREDICTIONS (By category)
Picture: 22 predict '12 Years,' 8 'Gravity'
Director: 30 predict Alfonso Cuaron
Actor: 29 predict Matthew McConaughey
Actress: 30 predict Cate Blanchett
Supporting Actor: 30 predict Jared Leto
Supp. Actress: 26 predict Nyong'o, 4 Lawrence
Original Screenplay: 15 predict 'Hustle,' 15 'Her'
Adapted Screenplay: 29 predict '12 Years'
Animated Feature: 30 predict 'Frozen'
Foreign Film: 26 predict 'Great Beauty'
Documentary: 19 predict '20 Feet,'
Production Design: 22 predict 'Gatsby,' 5 'Gravity'
Cinematography: 29 predict 'Gravity'
Costume Design: 24 predict 'Gatsby,' 4 'Hustle'
Editing: 20 predict 'Gravity,' 8 'Captain Phillips'
Makeup & Hair: 28 predict 'Dallas Buyers Club'
Sound Editing & Mixing: 29 predict 'Gravity'
Score: 28 predict 'Gravity'
Song: 28 predict 'Frozen,' two favor U2
Visual Effects: 29 predict 'Gravity'
Animated Short: 27 predict 'Get a Horse'
Doc Short: 29 predict 'Lady in Number 6'
Live Action Short: 16 'Voorman,' 9 'Helium'
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Read more about entry and rules here. Make your initial Oscar predictions now. Change them later as often as you wish up until Oscar Day. Below, meet our past winners of recent award prediction contests.
Oscar Nominations: New York state resident Tim Kressner (gufa54) won $1,000 for reaping the highest percentage (78%) when predicting Academy Award noms. Watch our video chat with him here and learn his strategy for making picks. See the leaderboard here. See Kressner's predix here.
Golden Globes (Film): Mario Gomez, a med studen in Mexico, won our contest with the highest percentage of correct picks (86%) and highest point score (2,693). See our video chat with him here. Two other contestants also scored 86%: lulo1989 and eastwest. Tom O'Neil reaped best Experts' score. David Schnelwar had top score among our Editors. See the leaderboard here to see if you made the top tier.
Critics Choice Nominations: Bryce H scored an impressive 83% when sizing up 20 categories. That was one percentage point ahead of our smartest Editor, Daniel Montgomery. Our top Expert was also one of our Editors, Paul Sheehan, who reaped 74%. To see how you performed, check out our leaderboard plus the score section of your account page.
Golden Globe (Film) Nominations: Jonathan was our top User, reaping a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery. Did you made the cut on the leaderboard score breakdown?
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award Winners: Christian aced all rivals, scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight." See leaderboard.
Gold Derby presents 4 sets
of Oscar predictions