The BAFTA Award – Britain's equivalent to the Oscar – often foretells upsets about to occur in Hollywood. For example, it correctly foretold victories by Meryl Streep ("The Iron Lady") last year and Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose") in 2007 when most Oscar pundits were betting on Viola Davis ("The Help") and Julie Christie ("Away from Her").
However, Lawrence won two key U.S. precursor prizes that often tattle on Oscar – the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild Award.
A new Oscarologist just joined the Gold Derby gang – Ramin Setoodeh (Newsweek Daily Beast), who is making rather mainstream predictions ("Argo," Daniel Day-Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Tommy Lee Jones, Anne Hathaway) except for the Best Director race, which he's calling for David O. Russell ("Silver Linings Playbook"). Three Gold Derby peers agree.
Five experts back Ang Lee ("Life of Pi") for the helmer's gold. One opts for Michael Haneke ("Amour"). All 15 others believe Steven Spielberg ("Lincoln") will prevail. See full breakdown here.