Two leading Oscar pundits – Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood) and Steve Pond (The Wrap) – just added new drama to the Best Actress race: they ditched Jennifer Lawrence ("Silver Linings Playbook") for Emmanuelle Riva ("Amour"), who recently pulled off an upset at the BAFTA Awards.
Lawrence still retains a sizeable lead, according Gold Derby's poll of 25 experts. Eighteen pick her to win, giving her 9-to-5 racetrack odds. However, Hammond and Pond join four other notable gurus who are betting on Riva too: Tariq Khan (Fox News), Guy Lodge (HitFix), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood/ Indiewire) and Peter Travers (Rolling Stone). See complete breakdown of Best Actress predictions here.
The BAFTA Award – Britain's equivalent to the Oscar – often foretells upsets about to occur in Hollywood. For example, it correctly foretold victories by Meryl Streep ("The Iron Lady") last year and Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose") in 2007 when most Oscar pundits were betting on Viola Davis ("The Help") and Julie Christie ("Away from Her").
However, Lawrence won two key U.S. precursor prizes that often tattle on Oscar – the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild Award.
SAG champ Tommy Lee Jones ("Lincoln") still retains a slight edge to win Best Supporting Actor with the backing of 11 experts, who give him 23-to-10 odds. But Robert De Niro ("Silver Linings Playbook") is pulling up fast with the support of 10 seers. Four experts pick Christoph Waltz ("Django Unchained"). See how the pundits rank all nominees in that category according to likelihood of winning.
"Argo" is favored to win Best Picture by 24 of the 25 Oscarologists polled. Only Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly) is holding out for "Lincoln." Up until today, he was joined by Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), but, frustrated by the state of the derby, she withdrew from further punditry this season. She Tweeted, "Just took some of the pressure off and am not going to be a @goldderby 'expert' this year. But keep following them they'll be righter than I."
A new Oscarologist just joined the Gold Derby gang – Ramin Setoodeh (Newsweek Daily Beast), who is making rather mainstream predictions ("Argo," Daniel Day-Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Tommy Lee Jones, Anne Hathaway) except for the Best Director race, which he's calling for David O. Russell ("Silver Linings Playbook"). Three Gold Derby peers agree.
Five experts back Ang Lee ("Life of Pi") for the helmer's gold. One opts for Michael Haneke ("Amour"). All 15 others believe Steven Spielberg ("Lincoln") will prevail. See full breakdown here.
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Read more about entry and rules here. Make your initial Oscar predictions now. Change them later as often as you wish up until Oscar Day. Below, meet our past winners of recent award prediction contests.
Oscar Nominations: New York state resident Tim Kressner (gufa54) won $1,000 for reaping the highest percentage (78%) when predicting Academy Award noms. Watch our video chat with him here and learn his strategy for making picks. See the leaderboard here. See Kressner's predix here.
Golden Globes (Film): Mario Gomez, a med studen in Mexico, won our contest with the highest percentage of correct picks (86%) and highest point score (2,693). See our video chat with him here. Two other contestants also scored 86%: lulo1989 and eastwest. Tom O'Neil reaped best Experts' score. David Schnelwar had top score among our Editors. See the leaderboard here to see if you made the top tier.
Critics Choice Nominations: Bryce H scored an impressive 83% when sizing up 20 categories. That was one percentage point ahead of our smartest Editor, Daniel Montgomery. Our top Expert was also one of our Editors, Paul Sheehan, who reaped 74%. To see how you performed, check out our leaderboard plus the score section of your account page.
Golden Globe (Film) Nominations: Jonathan was our top User, reaping a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery. Did you made the cut on the leaderboard score breakdown?
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award Winners: Christian aced all rivals, scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight." See leaderboard.