"Zero Dark Thirty"
Written by Mark Boal, "Zero Dark Thirty" is in third place with 10/3 odds. Nine experts and 23% of users predict it to win, but none of our editors agree.
The epic thriller about the hunt for Osama Bin Laden was recently awarded with the WGA Award, where its chief Oscar competitors were not eligible. It also received writing nominations from the Golden Globes, BAFTA, and Critics' Choice.
Including his Best Picture nominatiion this year for "Zero Dark Thirty," this is Boal's fourth Oscar nomination. He previously won Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay for "The Hurt Locker" in 2009.
Co-written by Roman Coppola and director Wes Anderson, "Moonrise Kingdom" is in fourth place with 13/2 odds. 3% of users think it will win.
The whimsical story of two kids who run away from home to be together was also nominated for writing at the BAFTAs, Critics' Choice Awards, and the WGA Awards. It's also nominated for Best Screenplay at the Spirit Awards, where it also contends for Best Feature.
This is the first Oscar nomination for Coppola, but the third for Anderson, who was previously nominated in this category for "The Royal Tenenbaums" in 2001 and for Best Animated Feature for "Fantastic Mr. Fox" in 2009.
Written by John Gatins, "Flight" ranks last with distant 10/1 odds. Only six users out of more than 1,300 predict it will win.
The drama about an alcoholic airline pilot who saves his passengers during an emergency landing was also nominated for writing at the Critics' Choice and WGA Awards.