"Argo" will win Best Picture at the Oscars according to our experts, who predict three total wins out of seven nominations for Ben Affleck's political thriller, including Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Editing. "Crash" also won awards for writing and editing the year it upset "Brokeback Mountain" for Best Picture in 2005. (Click here to see a breakdown by category of the winners and potential spoilers.)
Experts predict Oscar voters will spread the wealth, with two other films winning three apiece. "Lincoln," which leads with 12 nominations, is the favorite to win Best Director (Steven Spielberg), Best Actor (Daniel Day-Lewis), and Best Supporting Actor (Tommy Lee Jones). All would be repeat winners: Spielberg has won three previous awards for producing and directing, Jones also won Supporting Actor in 1993 for "The Fugitive," and Day-Lewis would make history as the first man to win Best Actor three times.
"Life of Pi," Ang Lee's drama about a young man stranded at sea with a Bengal tiger, is predicted to win Best Cinematography, Best Score, and Best Visual Effects. The film is also a spoiler to win Best Director and Best Sound Mixing.
Two other films will win two apiece. "Les Miserables" will take Best Supporting Actress (Anne Hathaway) and Best Sound Mixing, and "Anna Karenina" will win Best Production Design and Best Costume Design.
Five-time nominee "Amour" is forecast only to win Best Foreign Language Film, while "Wreck-It Ralph" is expected to take Best Animated Feature -- it would be the first non-Pixar Disney film to do so -- and "Searching for Sugar Man" is the frontrunner for Best Documentary Feature.
"Silver Linings Playbook" gets best odds to win one of its eight nominations (Best Actress for Jennifer Lawrence), while Quentin Tarantino is expected to win his second screenwriting Oscar, for "Django Unchained."
Gold Derby presents 4 sets
of Oscar predictions
See contenders' momentum in easy-to-read graphs here. Click links on left side of that page to see more categories. Click here to see the racetrack odds generated when the Experts' predix are combined.
Jonathan was our top User at predicting the Golden Globe film nominations. He scored a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery.
Christian aced the winners of the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn., scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight."
Cinemateo21 tied with one other User (dottardi) at 34% of the winners of the National Board of Review awards. However, he wagered his points strategically and scored three times as many to win the contest. Both are to be commended as only three of our editors got even one winner correct while our Experts were shut out entirely.
Likewise, Ryan Fernand tied with RobertPius at 67% of the winners of the New York Film Critics Circle but won on points. His margin of victory in that tally was closer (about 30% difference) but highlights how important it is where you place your Super (500 points) and Big (200) bets.
All of them win a $100 Amazon gift certificate as do Buddy (67% of Globe TV noms), me123 (78% of SAG TV noms) and trebor76 (80% of Grammy noms).
Hurry up and give us your predix for the Critics' Choice nominations, which will be unveiled on Monday. Be our next winner.
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