News Nuggets: Will Nate Silver's Oscar predix match his election accuracy?

By Daniel Montgomery
By Daniel Montgomery
Feb 22 2013 10:29 am
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nate silver oscars elections predictions entertainment film newsStatistics guru Nate Silver predicted the presidential election with startling accuracy. Can the same methods be used to predict the Oscar race? "Twice before, in 2009 and 2011, I sought to predict the Academy Award winners in six major categories based on a mix of statistical factors. My track record? Nine correct picks in 12 tries, for a 75 percent success rate. Not bad, but also not good enough to suggest that there is any magic formula for this. So this year, I have sought to simplify the method, making the link to the FiveThirtyEight election forecasts more explicit. This approach won’t be foolproof either, but it should make the philosophy behind the method more apparent. The Oscars, in which the voting franchise is limited to the 6,000 members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, are not exactly a democratic process. But they provide for plenty of parallels to political campaigns." New York Times

Live Tweeting has become a central aspect of the Oscars: "The second-screen experience is never better than on Oscar night, when a separate (and some might say superior) entertainment experience plays out on social media. The running commentary, in which comedians and others parody the glamorous stars and their sometimes laughable speeches, has become as central to the Academy Awards as the red carpet." Associated Press

Variety considers the lesser known stars competing against A-listers at this weekend's Spirit Awards, including Male Lead nominee Thure Lindhardt ("Keep the Lights On") and Female Lead nominee Emayatzy Corinealdi ("Middle of Nowhere").

Advertising time during the Oscars is in high demand, and companies are increasingly treating the event like the Super Bowl. New York Times

The BRIT Awards, the British equivalent of the Grammys, gets mixed reviews for its 2013 telecast. Entertainmentwise

Two-time Daytime Emmy winner Julia Barr will join "All My Children" for its online reboot, reprising her long-running role as Brooke English. TV by the Numbers

Congolese actress Rachel Mwanza, star of Oscar and Spirit Award nominee "War Witch," granted a travel visa to attend this weekend's events. Popdecay

The Oscars will feature sets by Tony-winner Derek McLane. Associated Press

 
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Inside Track: Oscar Predictions

Oscars predictions

Earliest Oscars Predictions Ever

Our Oscarologists are busy updating their predictions as they see more and more contenders. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.

Odds   View %  
Experts
1 BoyhoodBoyhood
9/2
2 UnbrokenUnbroken
13/2
3 BirdmanBirdman
15/2
4 The Imitation GameThe Imitation Game
8/1
5 Gone GirlGone Girl
12/1
6 FoxcatcherFoxcatcher
12/1
7 The Theory of EverythingThe Theory of Everything
12/1
8 InterstellarInterstellar
14/1
9 The Grand Budapest HotelThe Grand Budapest Hotel
33/1
10 SelmaSelma
50/1
See complete statistics by Clicking Here
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