In a somewhat controversial decision, this year the television academy has combined the lead and supporting categories for the Movie/Miniseries races, meaning there will only be one male winner and one female winner for longform television.
Based on early Gold Derby polling, Jessica Lange ("American Horror Story: Asylum") is the frontrunner to win a trophy in the all new combined category of Movie/Miniseries Actress. This will be Emmy #3 for Lange, who prevailed last year in the Movie/Mini Supporting Actress race for the first incarnation of "American Horror Story" and also in 2009 as Movie/Mini Lead Actress for the HBO biopic "Grey Gardens."
Currently nipping at Lange's heels in the number two position is Helen Mirren, who stars alongside Al Pacino in HBO's "Phil Spector." With an Oscar ("The Queen" in 2006) and a record four Emmys in the Movie/Mini lead race ("Prime Suspect" 4 in 1996; "Passion of Ayn Rand" in 1999; "Elizabeth I" in 2006; " Prime Suspect 7: The Final Act" in 2007) already on her mantel, Mirren's awards pedigree is helping to push her to the front of the pack.
In third place is Sigourney Weaver for the cancelled series-turned-miniseries "Political Animals." She's a shoo-in for a nomination after receiving nods in this same category at the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards. This would be Weaver's third Emmy nomination, though she has yet to win.
Coming in fourth is Holly Hunter for Sundance Channel's "Top of the Lake." Hunter is an Oscar winner for "The Piano" (1993) and a two-time Emmy winner in the Movie/Mini Lead Actress category for "The Positively True Adventures of the Alleged Texas Cheerleader-Murdering Mom" (1993) and "Roe vs. Wade" (1989).
Gold Derby currently has Emmy magnet Alfre Woodard ("Steel Magnolias") in fifth place. She's a TV academy favorite, winning four Emmys from sixteen nominations. The fact that she's even eligible here should guarantee her one of the six slots.
Rounding out our list is Sarah Paulson, co-lead with Lange on FX's "American Horror Story: Asylum." Paulson's work on the second season of the anthology series was just as impressive as Lange's, so we may be seeing these two leading performers duke it out in the top race just like Kevin Costner and Bill Paxton did last year for "Hatfields and McCoys."
Find out which ladies will make the cut in the Movie/Miniseries Actress race when Emmy nominations are revealed July 18. The 65th Primetime Emmys will air on CBS Sept. 22.
"American Horror Story" was re-classified as a miniseries because the storyline and characters are totally different each season. It was nominated for Best Movie/Miniseries in 2012, losing to "Game Change," but Jessica Lange won Best Movie/Mini Supporting Actress. Lange may contend again this year for "AHS: Asylum."
Text: Chris Beachum
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Those sparring Oscar experts Tariq Khan and Tom O'Neil clash one last time as Tariq blasts Tom for having made a few numbskull picks and Tom counter-attacks with nuclear warheads. Alternately funny, outrageous and fearlessly ferocious, these guys just can't calm down even though the Oscars are over. Listen to their podcast below. Subscribe and see more at iTunes and Libsyn.
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OVERVIEW OF WINNERS (AND LOSERS)
Complete list of winners (and nominees)
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WHAT TO WATCH FOR
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EXPERTS PREDICTIONS (By category)
Picture: 22 predict '12 Years,' 8 'Gravity'
Director: 30 predict Alfonso Cuaron
Actor: 29 predict Matthew McConaughey
Actress: 30 predict Cate Blanchett
Supporting Actor: 30 predict Jared Leto
Supp. Actress: 26 predict Nyong'o, 4 Lawrence
Original Screenplay: 15 predict 'Hustle,' 15 'Her'
Adapted Screenplay: 29 predict '12 Years'
Animated Feature: 30 predict 'Frozen'
Foreign Film: 26 predict 'Great Beauty'
Documentary: 19 predict '20 Feet,'
Production Design: 22 predict 'Gatsby,' 5 'Gravity'
Cinematography: 29 predict 'Gravity'
Costume Design: 24 predict 'Gatsby,' 4 'Hustle'
Editing: 20 predict 'Gravity,' 8 'Captain Phillips'
Makeup & Hair: 28 predict 'Dallas Buyers Club'
Sound Editing & Mixing: 29 predict 'Gravity'
Score: 28 predict 'Gravity'
Song: 28 predict 'Frozen,' two favor U2
Visual Effects: 29 predict 'Gravity'
Animated Short: 27 predict 'Get a Horse'
Doc Short: 29 predict 'Lady in Number 6'
Live Action Short: 16 'Voorman,' 9 'Helium'
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Read more about entry and rules here. Make your initial Oscar predictions now. Change them later as often as you wish up until Oscar Day. Below, meet our past winners of recent award prediction contests.
Oscar Nominations: New York state resident Tim Kressner (gufa54) won $1,000 for reaping the highest percentage (78%) when predicting Academy Award noms. Watch our video chat with him here and learn his strategy for making picks. See the leaderboard here. See Kressner's predix here.
Golden Globes (Film): Mario Gomez, a med studen in Mexico, won our contest with the highest percentage of correct picks (86%) and highest point score (2,693). See our video chat with him here. Two other contestants also scored 86%: lulo1989 and eastwest. Tom O'Neil reaped best Experts' score. David Schnelwar had top score among our Editors. See the leaderboard here to see if you made the top tier.
Critics Choice Nominations: Bryce H scored an impressive 83% when sizing up 20 categories. That was one percentage point ahead of our smartest Editor, Daniel Montgomery. Our top Expert was also one of our Editors, Paul Sheehan, who reaped 74%. To see how you performed, check out our leaderboard plus the score section of your account page.
Golden Globe (Film) Nominations: Jonathan was our top User, reaping a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery. Did you made the cut on the leaderboard score breakdown?
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award Winners: Christian aced all rivals, scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight." See leaderboard.
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