'Breaking Bad' battle: Will dark horse Jonathan Banks steal Aaron Paul's Emmy?

By Marcus James Dixon
By Marcus James Dixon
Jul 11 2013 12:25 pm
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Oct 21 2014 10:51 am
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"You know how they say it's been a pleasure? It hasn't."

During the first half of "Breaking Bad's" final season that aired last summer, Jonathan Banks's character Mike Ehrmantraut received more screen time than ever. His character evolved from a mysterious hit man to a brooding grandfather whose hilarious one-liners (including the one above) packed a punch.

But will the extra critical acclaim and fan support for Banks be enough to take down reigning frontrunner and "Breaking Bad" co-star Aaron Paul at the Emmys? After all, as Mike would say, "Just because you shot Jesse James, don't make you Jesse James."

According to Gold Derby's exclusive polling of Experts, Editors and Users, both men will receive Emmy nominations this year as Drama Supporting Actor. This will be Paul's fourth bid for the role of Jesse Pinkman, while Banks will be receiving his first notice from the TV academy since 1987 when he was nominated in this same category for "Wiseguy".

Paul's previous two wins for "Breaking Bad" are pushing him to the front of the pack with 9/4 odds, while dark horse Banks makes it into the sixth place position with 12/1 odds. The other four contenders are Mandy Patinkin ("Homeland") with 4/1 odds, Peter Dinklage ("Game of Thrones") at 13/2, Sam Waterston ("The Newsroom") with 10/1 odds and Corey Stoll ("House of Cards") at 12/1.

RELATEDWho are the eight men with best odds to win Drama Supporting Actor at Emmys?

Despite those favorable numbers for Paul, the two-time champ may be vulnerable this year if the precursors are any indication.

While Banks was nominated at last month's Critics' Choice TV Awards (losing to Michael Cudlitz from "Southland"), Paul was snubbed. And at the recent Saturn Awards, Banks claimed victory as TV's Best Supporting Actor while Paul was once again forgotten.

Another interesting Emmy factoid: Since this category was first awarded in 1959, no man has ever won more than two trophies as Drama Supporting Actor, meaning history is not on Paul's side to three-peat.

If this year truly is a battle between Banks and Paul, it seems as though Banks may be pulling ahead as the frontrunner. According to posters in the Gold Derby forums, out of last summer's eight eliible episodes, Paul may not have an Emmy-worthy one to submit to judges that's as good as his previous winning entries "Half Measures" and "End Times." Conversely, Banks is almost universally cited as the season's MVP by fans and critics, and he could very well win if he submits to judges the penultimate episode of the season entitled "Say My Name."

Click here to sign up for Gold Derby's free email alerts. Get breaking news and predictions tips.

Find out if Banks and Paul are both able to squeak out dualing Emmy bids when the TV academy announces nominations on July 18.

In the meantime, vote for who you think will win by using our easy drag-and-drop menu below. 

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Emmys: What Happens When Co-Stars Collide?

Bea Arthur vs. Rue McClanahan vs. Betty White ('The Golden Girls')
Marcia Cross vs. Felicity Huffman vs. Teri Hatcher ('Desperate Housewives')
Jane Curtin vs. Susan Saint James ('Kate and Allie')
Cathryn Damon vs. Katherine Helmond ('Soap')
Elizabeth Montgomery vs. Agnes Moorehead ('Bewitched')
Jim Parsons vs. Johnny Galecki ('The Big Bang Theory')
Matt LeBlanc vs. Matthew Perry ('Friends')
Jack Klugman vs. Tony Randall ('The Odd Couple')
Sebastian Cabot vs. Brian Keith ('Family Affair')
Frances Conroy vs. Rachel Griffiths ('Six Feet Under')
Edie Falco vs. Lorraine Bracco ('The Sopranos')
Julianna Margulies vs. Sherry Stringfield ('E.R.')
Sela Ward vs. Swoosie Kurtz ('Sisters')
Susan Dey vs. Jill Eikenberry ('L.A. Law')
Tyne Daly vs. Sharon Gless ('Cagney and Lacey')
Barbara Bel Geddes vs. Linda Gray ('Dallas')
Barbara Babcock vs. Veronica Hamel ('Hill Street Blues')
Kristy McNichol vs. Sada Thompson ('Family')
Michael C. Hall vs. Peter Krause ('Six Feet Under')
Martin Sheen vs. Rob Lowe ('The West Wing')
Jerry Orbach vs. Sam Waterston ('Law and Order')
Dennis Franz vs. Jimmy Smits ('NYPD Blue')
Dennis Franz vs. David Caruso ('NYPD Blue')
George Clooney vs. Anthony Edwards ('E.R.')
Corbin Bernsen vs. Michael Tucker ('L.A. Law')
William Daniels vs. Ed Flanders ('St. Elsewhere')
Jim Davis vs. Larry Hagman ('Dallas')
Peter Graves vs. Martin Landau ('Mission: Impossible')
Bill Cosby vs. Robert Culp ('I Spy')
Bea Arthur vs. Rue McClanahan vs. Betty White ('The Golden Girls')

When leading actors or actresses compete against each other at the Emmy Awards, what actually happens? Do they cancel each other out with vote splitting? Or do the combos of episodes help one win over the other?

The answer is both have happened many times over.

Maybe vote splitting occured with "Six Feet Under" for Michael C. Hall and Peter Krause as well as Frances Conroy and Rachel Griffiths. How about Matt LeBlanc and Matthew Perry for "Friends" plus Rob Lowe and Martin Sheen for "The West Wing." None of them could win.

Then again, all six times "Cagney and Lacey" stars Tyne Daly and Sharon Gless competed against each other, one of them prevailed. Jim Parsons has won over "The Big Bang Theory" co-star Johnny Galecki. Dennis Franz defeated "NYPD Blue" co-star David Caruso once and Jimmy Smits three times.

One of the best success stories of co-stars competing against each other at the Emmy Awards was the three leading ladies of "The Golden Girls." For the first four seasons of the classic comedy, Bea Arthur (Dorothy Zbornnak), Rue McClanahan (Blanche Devereaux), and Betty White (Rose Nylund) were pitted against each other. White won in 1986; McClanahan prevailed in 1987; Arthur finally triumphed in 1988. The final time in 1989 saw a victory by Candice Bergen as the title character of "Murphy Brown."

 
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Inside Track: Oscar Predictions

Oscars predictions

Earliest Oscars Predictions Ever

Our Oscarologists are busy updating their predictions as they see more and more contenders. Make your early picks now -- click here -- and change them later as the derby heats up.

Odds   View %  
Experts
1 BoyhoodBoyhood
9/2
2 UnbrokenUnbroken
6/1
3 BirdmanBirdman
15/2
4 The Imitation GameThe Imitation Game
15/2
5 The Theory of EverythingThe Theory of Everything
12/1
6 InterstellarInterstellar
12/1
7 Gone GirlGone Girl
12/1
8 FoxcatcherFoxcatcher
16/1
9 American SniperAmerican Sniper
33/1
10 SelmaSelma
33/1
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