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Now that we know Emmy nominees, who'll WIN?

By Tom O'Neil
By Tom O'Neil
Jul 18 2013 09:05 am
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Emmy nominations predictions entertainment news

When we invited 15 Emmy experts to predict nominations, we asked them to rank contenders in each category according to likelihood of winning. Over all, they fared pretty well with their forecasts compared to the real list of nominees (see those here), so now let's look back at their original rankings and racetrack odds to forecast who'll win.

Note: In the acting categories, we do not yet know what sample episodes the nominees intend to submit to Emmy juries. Usually, the strongest entries win. Many of these predictions may change drastically after Gold Derby reports the titles of the episodes and we offer in-depth analysis.

BEST COMEDY SERIES: Reigning titleholder "Modern Family" leads by a wide margin among the Experts polled by Gold Derby. Ten of our 15 pundits pick "Modern Family," compared to 2 for "The Big Bang Theory" and 1 for "Louie." The score among our Editors: 3 for "Modern Family," 3 for "The Big Bang Theory" and 1 for "Louie." "Modern Family" has already won 3 times in a row. Only 3 shows in TV history have prevailed 4 times ("All in the Family," "Cheers") or more (5 for "Frasier").

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BEST DRAMA SERIES: Seven Experts predict a repeat victory for last year's champ "Homeland," but 6 say "Breaking Bad," 1 says "Downton Abbey" and 1 bows to "Game of Thrones." Gold Derby's Editors disagree strongly, preferring "Breaking Bad" over "Homeland" by a 6-to-3 vote, with 1 maverick picking "Game of Thrones." "Breaking Bad" has lost 4 times, but many shows did not nab a victory until their fifth bid, including "24" and "The Sopranos." This year "Breaking Bad" may have an edge because it will be airing its final episodes during the Emmy voting period.

BEST COMEDY ACTOR: Alec Baldwin ("30 Rock") is the fave to pick up his third prize in this category, according to both Experts and Editors. He's backed by 7 Experts, while 6 choose Jim Parsons ("The Big Bang Theory") and 2 predict Louis C.K. ("Louie"). Editors' scores: 5 for Baldwin and 2 for Louis C.K.

BEST COMEDY ACTRESS: Last year's champ was Emmy darling Julia Louis-Dreyfus ("Veep") who has the overwhelming support of 12 Experts, while 2 pick Lena Dunham ("Girls") and 1 opts for Tina Fey ("30 Rock"). Louis-Dreyfus also leads among our Editors (5), but by a much smaller margin as 3 choose Fey and 1 backs Dunham.

BEST DRAMA ACTOR: Experts pick 3-time category champ Bryan Cranston ("Breaking Bad") while our Editors opt for last year's victor Damian Lewis ("Homeland"). Experts' scores: 12 for Cranston, 3 for Kevin Spacey ("House of Cards"). Editors' scores: 4 for Lewis, 3 for Cranston, 2 for Spacey.

BEST DRAMA ACTRESS: Looks like 2012 winner Claire Danes ("Homeland") will repeat. Experts' scores: 10 for Danes, 5 for Kerry Washington ("Scandal"). Editors' scores: 5 for Danes, 4 for Washington.

To see more predix, click through the category links in our charts predicting Emmy nominations. Note that not all predix match actual nominees.
 

emmy statueRELATED LINKS:

Emmy Award nominations: 'American Horror Story,' 'Game of Thrones' lead, 'House of Card' makes history

Complete list of Emmy Award nominations

Emmys good, bad, and ugly: Chris BeachumMarcus DixonRob LicuriaDaniel MontgomeryMatt Noble

Now that we know Emmy nominees, who'll WIN?

First-time Emmy nominees break through: Jeff Daniels, Kerry Washington ...

Top 15 biggest Emmy nominations jaw-droppers: Laura Dern, Connie Britton ...

Top 12 shocking Emmy nominations snubs: 'Arrested Development,' Margulies, Stonestreet

 
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Inside Track: Emmy Voting

EXCLUSIVE: See the episodes
submitted to Emmy judges
by actors and TV series

Every actor submits only one sample episode, which will be judged by other actors (ranging from 25 to 75 per category jury) between July 28 and August 14. TV series submit six, which will be split into three pairs to be distributed randomly to about 300 voters. We now have uncovered every single title submitted for the 2014 races. CLICK HERE FOR THE EPISODES

We analyze the pros and cons
of episodes submitted by actors
to Emmy judges

Who submitted well? Click links below to read our in-depth analysis of each actor's episode entry. 

DRAMA GUEST ACTOR
Dylan Baker ("The Good Wife")
Beau Bridges ("Masters of Sex")
Reg E. Cathey ("House of Cards")
Paul Giamatti ("Downton Abbey") 
R
obert Morse ("Mad Men")
Joe Morton ("Scandal")


DRAMA GUEST ACTRESS
Kate Burton ("Scandal")
Jane Fonda ("The Newsroom")
Allison Janney ("Masters of Sex")
Kate Mara ("House of Cards")
Margo Martindale ("The Americans")
Diana Rigg ("Game of Thrones")
 

COMEDY GUEST ACTOR
Steve Buscemi ("Portlandia")
Louis C.K. ("SNL")
Gary Cole ("Veep")
Jimmy Fallon ("SNL")
Nathan Lane ("Modern Family")
Bob Newhart ("The Big Bang Theory")
 

COMEDY GUEST ACTRESS
Uzo Aduba ("OITNB")
Laverne Cox ("OITNB")
Joan Cusack ("Shameless")
Tina Fey ("SNL")
Melissa McCarthy ("SNL")
Natasha Lyonne ("OITNB")

 

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