"Gravity" opened this weekend to rave reviews and boffo box office numbers, but will its near-unanimous praise translate to Oscar wins?
For the past three years, special effects-driven films have claimed boatloads of trophies on Oscar night, with "Life of Pi" (2012) winning four of its 11 races, "Hugo" (2011) scoring with five of its leading 11 nominations as did Best Picture champ "The Artist," and "Inception" (2010) taking four of its eight bids to match the haul of Best Picture winner "The King's Speech."
There should be no surprise, then, if "Gravity" reaps the most Oscar nominations when they're announced on Jan. 16. But how many of those potential nominations might it actually win? Let's consult with Gold Derby's experts, editors and users to determine where "Gravity" sits in all of the categories.
Best Picture - For the top prize, "Gravity" currently lands in third place in our predictions center, giving it odds of 8/1. "12 Years a Slave" is the film to beat with 9/2 odds, while second place currently goes to "American Hustle" at 11/2. Going against "Gravity" is the fact that no film set in space has ever claimed victory as Best Picture at the Oscars. Could it be the first?
Best Director - Since Best Picture often lines up with Best Director, it's no wonder we're seeing Alfonso Cuaron pop up in third place in our predictions center. First and second place also match up with their Best Picture counterparts, with Steve McQueen earning the top spot for "12 Years a Slave" and David O. Russell coming in second for "American Hustle."
Best Actress - Even though Sandra Bullock won her first Best Actress trophy just four years ago for "The Blind Side," she could hear her name called again on Oscar night for her performance as astronaut Ryan Stone. Unfortunately for Bullock, Cate Blanchett ("Blue Jasmine") is the far-away frontrunner in this category with 17/10 odds, compared to second-place Bullock with only 9/2.
Best Supporting Actor - If George Clooney is going to receive an Oscar nomination this year, it will most likely be for directing "The Monuments Men," not for acting in "Gravity." This one-time Best Supporting Actor champ ("Syriana," 2005) doesn't even crack our top 20 in the predictions center.
Best Original Screenplay - Just missing the cut for a nomination, Alfonso and Jonas Cuaron come in sixth place for their original screenplay. Our current top five contenders, in order, are "American Hustle," "Inside Llewyn Davis," "Blue Jasmine," "Nebraska" and "Fruitvale Station."
Best Production Design - Similarly, the production design team of "Gravity" also just misses the cut and comes in sixth place. The top five most-likely nominees for this race are "The Great Gatsby," "12 Years a Slave," "The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug," "The Monuments Men" and "Oz the Great and Powerful."
Best Cinematography - Coming in first place in our predictions center is "Gravity" with 3/2 odds, followed by "12 Years a Slave" at 10/2. At this early stage, Cinematography is the race where "Gravity" has the best chances of taking home an Oscar.
Best Score - This marks another potential win for "Gravity," as the music composer Steven Price comes in first place with 21/10 odds, followed closely behind by "12 Years a Slave" with 27/10 odds.
Best Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Visual Effects - "Gravity" is sure to be nominated in these three below-the-line categories, so keep an eye out for when Gold Derby opens up the predictions center for this trio of races.
Vote in our poll below and make or change your predictions for Best Picture using our easy drag-and-drop menu at the bottom of this post.
As a writer, director, and actor, Clooney has received seven Oscar nominations in the last six years, winning in 2005 for his supporting role in "Syriana." He's nominated twice this year, for Best Actor in "The Descendants" and Best Adapted Screenplay for "The Ides of March." But before he was a movie star he was a television heartthrob, playing Dr. Doug Ross on NBC's "ER" in the 1990s, and earlier still he was a mulleted handyman on "The Facts of Life" (pictured, left) and Roseanne's supervisor for a season on her self-titled sitcom.
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Below, meet our past winners of recent award prediction contests.
Oscar Nominations: New York state resident Tim Kressner (gufa54) won $1,000 for reaping the highest percentage (78%) when predicting Academy Award noms. Watch our video chat with him here and learn his strategy for making picks. See the leaderboard here. See Kressner's predix here.
Golden Globes (Film): Mario Gomez, a med studen in Mexico, won our contest with the highest percentage of correct picks (86%) and highest point score (2,693). See our video chat with him here. Two other contestants also scored 86%: lulo1989 and eastwest. Tom O'Neil reaped best Experts' score. David Schnelwar had top score among our Editors. See the leaderboard here to see if you made the top tier.
Critics Choice Nominations: Bryce H scored an impressive 83% when sizing up 20 categories. That was one percentage point ahead of our smartest Editor, Daniel Montgomery. Our top Expert was also one of our Editors, Paul Sheehan, who reaped 74%. To see how you performed, check out our leaderboard plus the score section of your account page.
Golden Globe (Film) Nominations: Jonathan was our top User, reaping a staggering 86% when forecasting the lineup of 10 categories. That put him six percentage points ahead of our best Expert -- Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood) -- and eight ahead of our leading Editor, Daniel Montogomery. Did you made the cut on the leaderboard score breakdown?
Los Angeles Film Critics Association Award Winners: Christian aced all rivals, scoring 82%. That was almost 20 percentage points ahead of our top Expert (Edward Douglas of ComingSoon ) and Editor (Matt Noble), both of whom earned scores of 64%. Christian foresaw that surprise screenplay win for "Before Midnight." See leaderboard.