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Vanity Fair's Michael Hogan predicts 'Saving Mr. Banks' to win Best Picture Oscar

By Paul Sheehan
By Paul Sheehan
Nov 19 2013 08:38 am
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Vanity Fair scribe Michael Hogan predicts "Saving Mr. Banks" will win Best Picture. He joins just Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post) among our 25 Experts in forecasting this biopic to triumph. However, Hogan has a stellar track record as an Oscarologist. Last year, he placed second among all Experts when it came to predicting BOTH Oscar nominations and winners.

In his predictions just entered at Gold Derby, Hogan expects "Gravity" will win seven Oscars: Director (Alfonso Cuaron), Cinematography, Editing, Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects. 

He also forecasts performers from four different films will win Oscars: leads Chiwetel Ejiofor ("12 Years a Slave") and Cate Blanchett ("Blue Jasmine") and featured players Jared Leto ("Dallas Buyers Club") and Oprah Winfrey ("The Butler").

Hogan has current Best Picture frontrunner "12 Years a Slave" in third place. The 14 Experts picking it to prevail as Best Picture: Edward Douglas (Comingsoon), Thom Geier (Entertainment Weekly), Mark Harris (Grantland), Dave Karger (Fandango), Tariq Khan (Fox News), Mary Milliken (Reuters), Michael Musto (Gawker, Out), Kevin Polowy (Next Movie), Steve Pond (TheWrap), Claudia Puig (USA Today), Sasha Stone (Awards Daily), Jeff Wells (Hollywood-Elsewhere), Glenn Whipp (Los Angeles Times) and Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com).

And he has "Gravity" in second place. Eight Experts expect it to win: Thelma Adams (Yahoo), Guy Lodge (HitFix), Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood), Tom O'Neil (Gold Derby), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood), Peter Travers (Rolling Stone) and me. 

Hogan has the unseen "American Hustle" in fourth. Among our Experts, only Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter) is predicting it to go all the way. 

See Hogan's full predix here. And see how his rankings compare to other Experts here.

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He joins the overwhelming majority (20) in predicting Cate Blanchett ("Blue Jasmine") to win Best Actress with only five Experts picking "Gravity" star Sanda Bullock.

His support for Cuaron puts him within one vote of "12 Years" helmer Steve McQueen. Likewise for Ejiofor who is now just two votes away from frontrunner Robert Redford ("All is Lost"). 

Hogan's vote for Winfrey breaks her tie with "12 Years a Slave" ingenue Lupita Nyongo with the score now 13-12. 

And he boosts the bid by Jared Leto ("Dallas Buyer's Club") for Best Supporting Actor who now has a 15 to 8 edge over Michael Fassbender ("12 Years a Slave"). 

What do you think is going to win Best Picture? Vote below using our easy drag-and-drop menu. 

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